New England Patriots: Should They Draft an Outside Linebacker in Round 1?

As it does every year, the New England Patriots biggest needs and plans for success in the 2011 NFL draft will change all the way up to the very moment Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft announce their first pick.

One thing it always comes down to is value. The Patriots will always take the player they think gives them the most value with their pick.

The question becomes, how do the Patriots judge value?

Last year, the value of Devin McCourty was based on the fact that he was seen as a four-down player. He could contribute on defense for three downs, and then on special teams.

Do the Patriots judge value in 2011 in that same regard, of who can play the most downs? Or is it adjusted due to some different looks on defense this year?

Mike Reiss points out that the Patriots were in their sub package on 57 percent of their defensive snaps in 2010, while only coming out of the base 3-4 alignment on 40 percent of their snaps. The other three percent were for goal line personnel.

Reiss has several good points in his article on the subject, but the main idea is this: the Patriots should consider putting more value on the outside linebacker spot in terms of generating a pass rush on third downs and in sub packages.

From top to bottom on the Patriots roster, the outside linebackers totaled 14 sacks. It's clear that more pressure is needed.

The Patriots have passed on stand-out pass rushers before, because they aren't seen as fits in the 3-4 system and wouldn't play most downs. However, with the Patriots playing a decreasing number of snaps in the base 3-4 (only 40 percent), 2011 is a good year to re-think that method.

Maybe it's time to go get that pass rusher that may not be a “perfect 10” as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but who can get after the quarterback on a consistent basis.

In a separate article, Reiss says, “Super Bowl participants LaMarr Woodley (Steelers) and Clay Matthews (Packers) might not have fit as three-down players when the Patriots initially evaluated them for their 3-4 defense, but with the growing number of sub packages being played, a strong case could be made for the Patriots to alter the way they evaluate and value those type of rushers.”

Picking up one of “those type of rushers” may not bring the value of a four-down player, but given the Patriots biggest need—a hybrid DE/OLB that may be more of a fit in a 4-3 than in a 3-4, but who can rush the passer effectively.

It's clear that the sub package was the reason for the struggles of the pass defense. They couldn't generate any consistent pressure out of their sub package. What's less clear, though, is whether that was by design or if the Patriots were forced into their sub packages by opposing offenses to exploit a weakness in the defense.

Is 2011's version of value to find someone who can rush the passer out of the sub package? Or does it remain finding players who can contribute on every down?

Think back to 2003 and 2004. The Patriots defense was one of the best in the league those two years.

They didn't do it with a bunch of specialists who only played on specific downs like they did in 2010. It was three-down man's-men type of players on defense. Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Lawyer Milloy, Mike Vrabel and the whole gang.

Drafting a sub package pass rusher might feed into the problem even more so if he has weaknesses that can be exposed in other ways. It could also fix the problem because their inability to get after the quarterback out of the sub package would no longer be a weakness. I don't know where I stand on this debate just yet. I do know one thing: No matter how Patriots fans feel, Belichick is going to do what he thinks is best for the football team.