NFL Draft 2011: First Round Draft Picks With The Most Bust Potential
There are no sure things in the NFL Draft.
Even prospects as widely celebrated as Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers could fail to make the grade at the next level, and even players who turn out to be fine NFL contributors can wind up as busts if they're drafted too high.
Here are eight potential first-rounders who may turn out to be big mistakes.
8. OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
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Aldon Smith projects as an OLB, but his college experience as a DE may not translate easily.
He’s also an underclassmen, so he’s already going to be less polished. If he goes in the top 15 to a team that needs him to perform sooner rather than later, he could turn into a major disappointment.
7. QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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Although Blaine Gabbert seems the safest of the potential first round QBs, the quarterbacking position is rarely a sure thing (see also: Leaf, Ryan). A spread QB in college, Gabbert may have to relearn his pro-style footwork at the next level.
He’ll also need at least some work on his decision making. His TD-INT ratio of 16-9 last year is underwhelming, and his brilliant performance in the Insight Bowl was marred by a key pick.
6. DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
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With all the defensive ends being touted as possible first round picks this year, it stands to reason somebody’s going to be a mistake.
Cameron Heyward has loads of big-game experience, but may not have the same physical tools as Big 10 rivals such as Ryan Kerrigan and Adrian Clayborn.
He’ll probably be a decent NFL player at worst; he just might not be first round pick material.
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5. QB Cam Newton, Auburn
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As brilliant as Cam Newton’s Heisman-winning season was, there are a lot of unknowns for him as he enters the draft.
Dual-threat QBs have a very uneven track record in the pros, with Michael Vick and Vince Young providing perhaps the best and worst case scenarios. Even Daunte Culpepper (at 6’4” and 260 lbs, perhaps the most similar to Newton), fell on hard times after a strong start to his career.
On top of those on-field issues are questions about Newton’s academic struggles and the yet-to-be-proven allegations he participated in his father’s pay-for-play scheme. Put it all together, and you have a tantalizing talent who may blow up in some unlucky team’s face.
4. DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina
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A likely top 10 selection, Robert Quinn has everything you want in a pass-rushing end except a junior season.
How will sitting out the year for accepting benefits from agents affect Quinn on or off the field?
Quinn also carries the usual caveat of the college pass rusher—will he be able to stay on the field on rushing downs in the NFL?
3. QB Jake Locker, Washington
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Following his junior year, Jake Locker was one of the most highly-touted QB prospects in the country.
Having returned to school for his senior year, he’s not even a lock to be picked in the first round.
Injuries and severe inconsistency made for a rough final season at Washington. Steve Sarkisian’s track record works in Locker’s favor, but he’s clearly a risk if he does go in the first round.
2. WR Torrey Smith, Maryland
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Though he’s unlikely to be drafted as far over his head as former Maryland teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey, Torrey Smith could become a bust all the same.
After Julio Jones and A.J. Green, there really aren’t any WRs who deserve a first round selection. If somebody reaches for one later in the round, Smith could be that pick.
He put up respectable numbers with the Terrapins, but struggled against the tougher defenses on their schedule; he only had one catch for six yards against Navy, though nobody came out of that game looking good.
1. QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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Ryan Mallett has the arm and the build NFL scouts covet, but his performance on the field hasn’t always lived up to his tools.
He imploded against Alabama, throwing three interceptions to lose a game the Razorbacks seemed to have in their pockets. He looked shaky against Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, completing just 51.1 percent of his passes and throwing a late interception.
Those struggles in big games may be flukes, but if they’re indicators Mallett wilts under pressure, they don’t bode well for his pro prospects.
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