2011 NFL Mock Draft: Is Nick Fairley Still At the Head of the Class?
It is now February, and we are less than three months away from the 2011 NFL Draft. As a result of the draft slowly approaching, mock drafts are beginning to see less movement in each update, and the top players are beginning to cement their status in the top few spots in the draft.
In my last NFL Mock Draft, players had just finally decided on whether or not they were attending school, and the Senior Bowl was still some time into the future. Now that the Senior Bowl has concluded, we have a better idea of some of the prospects who may have been borderline first round picks.
I had Da'Quan Bowers first in my last two mock drafts; has Nick Fairley proven enough to take over the top spot? Will Blaine Gabbert be taken in the top ten, and will he even be the first quarterback taken? Will any players fall much further than they should. Find out ahead.
1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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I remain on the fence on which is the better first overall pick, Bowers or Fairley. Both have similar strengths and weaknesses, and both were dominant in college for one season yet no one knew who they were before that.
New Panthers head coach Ron Rivera will shore up the defensive line, so these are the two options. I believe that, after watching tape of both players, they'll come to the conclusion that Fairley is better both immediately and in the long run. Either way, Ron Rivera is a good defensive mind, and he will know what to look for out of both players.
Previous: Da'Quan Bowers
2. Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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Every mock draft in the past two weeks went from the Broncos selecting Peterson to selecting Da'Quan Bowers, and I cannot figure out exactly why. Champ Bailey is still leaving, Perrish Cox is still in trouble, and perhaps most importantly, new head coach John Fox got his start as a defensive backs coach.
The only way they'll take Bowers with this pick is if John Fox is convinced Bowers is another Julius Peppers, which could very well end up happening.
Previous: Peterson
3. Buffalo Bills: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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With Nick Fairley now off the board, the Bills have a lot of options. A.J. Green is a playmaker they can give to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcell Dareus is a solid player who can fill in at a weak front line, and they could even reach and take a quarterback to groom behind Fitzpatrick.
In the end, I think they take the best defender in Bowers. They have a stronger need at DT than DE, but Marcus Stroud is showing his age and none of the other players are stepping up. Bowers can contribute to the defensive line immediately.
Previous: Nick Fairley
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Unless one of the first three teams falls in love with green after an outstanding combine performance, he's going to the Bengals with the 4th pick. I've said this since I started doing mocks and I will continue to say so.
Previous: Green
5. Arizona Cardinals: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
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All mock drafts suddenly have Von Miller going to the Cardinals. While he had a great senior bowl and rightfully made a leap in the rankings, I don't he has proven himself to be a top five guy just yet. Quinn, meanwhile, has shown top five talent, we just have not seen much of it due to his suspension.
If you put Quinn alongside Darnell Dockett, then you have a pretty good defensive line to work with.
Previous: Quinn
6. Cleveland Browns: Marcell Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama
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As a Browns fan, I'm glad they are not taking Jones. With new defensive coordinator Dick Jauron switching to a 4-3, the Browns badly need defensive line help. Quinn is the guy who would work best, but since the Cardinals took him, they will select Marcell Dareus.
Cleveland would love to select the other five that already went, for that matter, but of the players left, Dareus fills both talent and need.
Previous: Julio Jones
7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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This is a very hard pick. San Francisco has a lot of needs, not the least of which is a quarterback. Jim Harbaugh has seen all these guys play, especially Jake Locker, and with that inside knowledge, I think he'll pass on what's available.
That still leaves many options for the 49ers, with Von Miller, Amukamara, Aldon Smith, and Corey Liuget all being possibilities, as they need some defensive help if they go the free agent route on a QB. In the end, they will pick a cornerback that can shore up the secondary. Amukamara is a safe pick that should help the 49ers immediately.
Previous: Ryan Mallett
8. Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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Blaine Gabbert will be a bust. I will continue to say this throughout these next few months in hopes that a football team will listen to me and save themselves. Had the Tennessee Titans kept Jeff Fisher and gotten rid of Vince Young, I would have expected them to pick up a free agent.
Instead, the Titans will have a new head coach moving forward, and they will draft a quarterback. Bud Adams will see the hype about Gabbert and pick him, and three years from how he'll be hitting himself for a move that will make selecting Vince Young look genius in comparison.
Previous: Gabbert
9. Dallas Cowboys: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
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Amukamara is a perfect fit with the Cowboys, but unfortunately he's off the board, and Brandon Harris is a bit of a reach with a top ten pick. Instead, the Cowboys will look for the next DeMarcus Ware, and will have found him in Von Miller.
Originally a middle of the first round prospect, Miller's great Senior Bowl performance has all but guaranteed a top ten selection for all mock drafts leading up to the combine. He may not be the biggest need, but he's nonetheless a great talent.
Previous: Amukamara
10. Washington Redskins: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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The Redskins are one of the hardest teams to figure out draft-wise. After giving it some thought and looking at other mocks, I came to the conclusion that they'll draft a quarterback, rather than a defensive player like I had done before.
The question becomes, however, which quarterback will they take? Gabbert could easily fall to number 10. If he doesn't, who do the Redskins pick? Half of the mock drafts recognize that Shanahan loves Jake Locker and could easily take him there, and the other half think Cam Newton is the best fit and will be selected.
In the end, I think the Redskins go with the flashy Heisman winner.
Previous: Marcell Dareus
11. Houston Texans: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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The best player the Houston Texans can pick is (insert defensive player here). Their defense is awful, and anyone would be an improvement. Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan and Brandon Harris are possibilities.
This is likely to change, but right now they will probably pick Cameron Jordan. He was outstanding in the Senior Bowl, and his stock is quickly rising. Put him across from Mario Williams and at least one part of the defense can be solid.
Previous: Ryan Kerrigan
12. Minnesota Vikings: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Honestly, I have a gut feeling that the Vikings will trade for a quarterback, likely dangling this number 12 pick as collateral. However, trades are complicated to factor inn to mock drafts, that's why you never see them.
Let's say instead that the Vikings keep the pick. Many have them picking a quarterback, but their best bet is Nate Solder. Bryant McKinnie is struggling recently, and Solder can provide some much needed youthful energy to the line as the best of a fairly weak offensive line class.
Previous: Cam Newton
13. Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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The more I hear about Akeem Ayers on the Detroit Lions and the more I compare both, the more I like this selection. I still think they need some secondary help, but Ayers is the kind of prospect that, if put into Detroit's current defense, would be a day one starter. Little by little the defense is gaining playmakers.
Previous: Brandon Harris
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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This is the most obvious selection in the draft. The Rams need a playmaker at wide receiver, A.J. Green will never fall this far down, and Julio Jones is the only other first-round talent.
Previous: Justin Blackmon
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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This is the second most obvious pick in the draft. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will both be lost to free agency, and the Dolphins badly need a replacement. Chad Henne is not the answer at quarterback, but neither is Jack Locker or Ryan Mallett.
If the Dolphins want to try out a quarterback, there are a few solid ones in the third and fourth rounds if they know where to look.
Previous: Ingram
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
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Nearly every mock draft I've seen has Aldon Smith going a lot higher, but I'm not buying that. He has the talent, but he's still green and needs a year or two of NFL experience before he becomes dominant. If you want somewhere where you can develop without impatience, then where better than Jacksonville?
David Garrard still has 2-3 years left of good play left in him; any drafts that have a quarterback going here are ridiculous. If Smith is off the board here, then Ryan Kerrigan is a good selection for the Jaguars.
Previous: J.J. Watt
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland): Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Most mocks have either Cameron Jordan, J.J. Watt, or Ryan Kerrigan here. Jordan was way too good in the Senior Bowl, so he'll be off the board. Between Watt and Kerrigan, i think Kerrigan is the far better prospect, and he can be effective immediately for a front seven that needs some help.
Previous: Cameron Jordan
18. San Diego Chargers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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The Chargers are lucky this draft is so deep on defensive end talent, because they need help at the position and there's still a couple good players left. Von Miller was a perfect fit, as is Ayers, but both are now off the board. What should they do?
Their options in this draft are now J.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Adrian Clayborn. All three are decent but not amazing fits, and all three have issues. In the end, I'll go with my gut and say they pick Clayborn out of those three.
Previous: Von Miller
19. New York Giants: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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I don't necessarily agree with Tyron Smith's rapid ascent on draft boards. Apparently he has a great frame, which is all well and good, but has he proven himself on the field?
Either way, the Giants will like what they hear about Smith from scouts, and it will be between Mike Pouncey and Smith on who they pick in the end.
Previous: Akeem Ayers
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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It's difficult to determine who the Bucs take with this pick, as a lot of it is dependent on what defensive linemen are left. They will most likely either pick J.J. Watt or Stephen Paea with this pick.
The Bucs have an up-and-coming defensive interior, so if they were going to pick between those two it would easily be Watt, who can fit in alongside Gerald McCoy. If the Chargers pass on Clayborn, which is definitely possible, the Bucs will pick him.
Previous: Adrian Clayborn
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
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A lot of people recently have had Justin Houston going here, but I don't think he's out of the late first round just yet. Kansas City has selected enough defensive ends recently that they won't pick one of those either.
Stephen Paea is all over the place on every mock draft update. I may be the only exception, as I've consistently had him going to Kansas City, and will continue to say so. It's easier than having him 11th one draft and 38th the next at least. Keep an eye on Justin Houston though, the Chiefs are likely looking at him very closely.
Previous: Paea
22. Indianapolis Colts: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida
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The Colts will select a player to boost their offensive line, but the question is which one. Gabe Carimi, Mike Pouncey, and Anthony Castonzo are all available here. I actually think Tyron Smith would be a better fit on the Colts and that the Giants should have taken one of the other three I listed, but a mock draft is not about who I want.
The Colts will select Mike Pouncey after some thought. They saw how great Maurkice Pouncey has been for the Steelers so far and will be expecting Mike to be great as well.
Previous: Nate Solder
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Assuming that Carimi falls this far, this is another very obvious selection.The Eagles need offensive line help, Carimi fits well into the system, and Wisconsin has a good history of providing solid NFL tackles.
Previous: Carimi
24. New Orleans Saints: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
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This is a tough spot for the Saints, and I could actually see them trading down. They could use some pass rush help, but most of the best pass rushers are gone. I'm tempted to put Corey Liuget here, but it doesn't really fit a need.
The Saints will likely go with Justin Houston, who can rush the passer when needed and could be a solid pickup. Houston's the best fit in a place in the draft where the Saints do not have a lot of options.
Previous: Allen Bailey
25. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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The Seattle Seahawks are actually in a very good position to draft a quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck has one year left, and since none of these guys are NFL-ready, they can sit behind him for a year and be ready to go in 2012.
As for which one the Seahawks will pick, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett are both options. However, Jake Locker followed a bad senior year with an underwhelming Senior Bowl performance, and he has to be out of the first round by now. Ryan Mallett has a lot of upside but a lot of issues; who better to fix those issues than Hasselbeck?
Previous: Jake Locker
26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
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The Ravens are going to take a cornerback. However, do they take Aaron Williams or Brandon Harris? They could even take Jimmy Smith, who's rocketing up draft boards and finding his way into the first round.
They'll go with the best, most proven one in Brandon Harris, who seems to fit perfectly with the Ravens' defense.
Previous: Aaron Williams
27. Atlanta Falcons: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
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Tight end Kyle Rudolph was a reach at 31, and would be even more so here, so the Falcons are now going to pass on him. The question Atlanta has to ask itself is twofold. First, is Cameron Heyward a good enough talent to play alongside John Abraham and help the defensive line? Second, is Torrey Smith a first-round receiving talent that they need to get with pick #27?
I don't have the answer to this, and neither do other mocks, who seem split between these two. The Falcons' weak spot is the defense, not the offense, so I think they'll address that first. I couldn't blame them if they took Torrey Smith with this pick though.
Previous: Kyle Rudolph
28. New England Patriots: Stefen Wisniewski, G, Penn State
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The Patriots will take the first-round offensive line talent that's left with this pick, since they will be losing a couple players to free agency. Without Logan Mankins and possibly Matt Light (though I think Light will re-sign), the Patriots have holes in the line they need to fill.
While picking Wisniewski here might be a reach, the Patriots are not going to risk him being taken by another team right after them. Besides, he can fill the whole left by Mankins. I'm actually surprised no one else has the Pats taking him.
Previous: Wisniewski
29. Chicago Bears: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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The Bears are happy that the Patriots decided not to select Castonzo, because they need him. The line needs to be strengthened for Jay Cutler, and bringing in Castonzo would do just that.
Previous: Castonzo
30. New York Jets: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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Corey Liuget's ascent on draft boards helps out the Jets perfectly, as he fits right into their system. Kris Jenkins is susceptible to injury, and the Jets need to replace Shaun Ellis should he leave for free agency.
Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is a possibility, as Mel Kiper has pointed out, but I think the Jets will like Liuget a little bit more.
Previous: Aldon Smith
31. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
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This pick doesn't sound smart on the surface, since Green Bay has Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson at corner. However, Woodson's getting old, and the Packers have to think about a replacement. Williams is a great talent that the Packers can fit right in, and since there are no top quality offensive lineman left, they'll go with this.
Previous: Tyron Smith
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Ijalana, OT, Villanova
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The Steelers are tough to figure out, because they really don't have that many weaknesses. Since they don't, they will likely use their pick on the best offensive lineman available, which at this point would be Ben Ijalana. He has shown a lot of toughness despite a lack of competition and has snuck into the first round in some mock drafts.
Previous: Mike Pouncey (perfect fit, but he won't fall that far)
33. New England Patriots: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
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As a bonus, here's the first pick of the second round. We all talk about the Patriots having three of the first 33 picks, and how they use pick 28 will affect greatly who they pick here. Since they took an offensive lineman here, they'll look for a playmaker.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis has proven to be very good, but if the Patriots want someone who has the potential to be great, then they'll take Leshoure, who has been rising up draft boards as the second best of a weak running back class.
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