2011 NFL Draft: Mocking the New England Patriots' Picks

Following last week’s stunning defeat at the hands of their division rival Jets, the New England Patriots are left to look forward to the offseason as they attempt to add the pieces to make another Super Bowl run next season.  Fortunately for them, they are in position to make a big splash in the upcoming draft, possessing multiple picks in each of the first three rounds.

For the past few years, the Patriots have been considerably stronger on the offensive side of the ball; this year was no exception, as their offense finished eighth in the league with 363.8 yards per game (and first in the league with 32.4 points per game), while their defense was 25^th in the league with 366.5 yards allowed per game.  However, their lackluster performance against the Jets strongly suggests that they also need help at offensive line, and possibly even at some of the offensive skill positions.

With that in mind, these are the positions the Patriots should be looking to address in the upcoming draft, in order of importance, and some of the players who could fill those needs.

GUARD

The Patriots had issues at this position all year long, from Logan Mankins’ holdout to a multitude of injuries.

Their starter at left guard is Mankins, who is one of the top linemen in the league, but may depart the team through free agency.  The right side is usually manned by Stephen Neal, but he ended the season on IR and is perennially injury prone—and at this point, probably considering retirement.  Dan Connolly, who filled in at both spots, did a respectable job overall but got manhandled by Shaun Ellis in the loss to the Jets.  He’s better relegated to a backup role.

The Patriots will certainly need to pick at least one guard in the draft, and may need a second one as well in the event that Mankins leaves.  Mike Pouncey (Florida) is the top prospect at this position, but the Patriots will likely need to expend the #17 pick to get him given the likely interest from some other teams picking shortly thereafter (Giants, Eagles), and that’s probably too steep a price for an interior lineman.  A more likely option is Stefen Wisniewski (Penn State) with either the #28 or #33 pick.  If they can’t re-sign Mankins, they will probably target a second guard in rounds three to five.  John Moffitt (Wisconsin) and Orlando Franklin (Miami) are some options there.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

The Patriots featured one of the worst pass defenses in the league this season by yardage despite having a secondary consisting of two Pro Bowlers (Brandon Meriweather and Devin McCourty), as well as an excellent young strong safety in Pat Chung.  Much of the blame has to fall on the mediocre pass rush, which tied for 14^th in the league with 36 sacks (and much of that comes from the defensive line). 

The two OLB spots are currently manned by Jermaine Cunningham, a rookie who’s solid against the run but doesn’t offer much of a pass rush, and Rob Ninkovich, a smart role player who’s probably better suited to a backup role.  They also have a decent situational pass rusher in Tully Banta-Cain.  The Patriots desperately need to bring in a game changing OLB who can consistently pressure the quarterback, and that may be exactly what they spend their first round pick on.

Unfortunately, there’s very little chance of elite prospects DaQuan Bowers (Clemson) or Robert Quinn (North Carolina) dropping out of the top 10, but this draft is fairly deep in DE/OLB types, and the Patriots have several intriguing options at #17.  Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) is the most likely option here, as coach Bill Belichick likes OLBs who can set the edge against the run as well as they collapse the pocket.  Aldon Smith (Missouri), Akeem Ayers (UCLA) and Von Miller (Texas A&M) are also possibilities here, though the latter is somewhat undersized and may struggle against the run in the NFL.  Justin Houston (Georgia) could be the pick if they wait until #28 to address the position.

CORNERBACK

Of course, the other problem with New England’s pass defense is that they lack a quality starter across from Devin McCourty, as Darius Butler really struggled and Kyle Arrington, who replaced him, is not a long term solution.

Luckily, this is a deep cornerback class.  As with OLB, there are two elite talents, Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, who will almost certainly go in the top 10, but the Patriots have many other solid options in Brandon Harris (Miami), Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), and Aaron Williams (Texas).  Most of those guys should still be available at #28, and possibly at #33.  The Patriots could even wait until #60 and take somebody like Williams’ teammate Curtis Brown or Brandon Burton (Utah).  Whichever direction they go, the Patriots’ foresight in stockpiling picks should help them come up with a good upgrade at CB.

DEFENSIVE END

Two years ago, the Patriots boasted one of the top 3-4 defensive lines in the league, but the trade of Richard Seymour and last year’s injury to Ty Warren left Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork playing amidst a revolving door of mediocre DEs.  Fortunately, Warren will return this upcoming season, which somewhat alleviates this need, but they could still go for an upgrade at the left DE spot.

Should Belichick decide to prioritize this need, he’ll have some excellent choices at #17 in Cameron Jordan (California) and JJ Watt (Wisconsin).  Both of those players are good run stuffers as well as capable pass rushers—a huge plus, as Belichick does not like to blitz and relies on his guys up front to apply pressure.  If the Patriots go for a different position with their top pick, they could wait until #28 or #33 and grab someone like Allen Bailey (Miami), Corey Liuget (Illinois), or Muhammed Wilkerson (Temple).

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

This is not as pressing a need as guard, as the Patriots already have a franchise tackle in Sebastian Vollmer and veteran Matt Light, who didn’t look good against the Jets but is still serviceable.  However, Light is an impeding free agent past his prime, and the Patriots will likely let him walk, move Vollmer over to the left side, and draft a new right tackle.

This is generally considered an underwhelming OT class, with nobody really considered a slam dunk pick.  Nate Solder (Colorado), Tyron Smith (USC), Anthony Castonzo (BC), and Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) are the top tackles available and are expected to go in the mid- to late-first round, but the Patriots simply have too many needs to take an OT that early.  Rather, they will look at someone like Joseph Barksdale (LSU) or Darius Morris (Temple) in the third round.  The Patriots have a very good offensive line coach in Dante Scarnecchia who can develop third round talents, and besides, they simply need a dependable right tackle, not an elite blind side protector.

WIDE RECEIVER

Despite the trade of Randy Moss, the Patriots pass offense kept chugging along with Deion Branch and Wes Welker, not to mention their excellent tight ends.  They also have a deep burner in Brandon Tate, but his unreliable hands may relegate him to kick returning duties.  Moreover, as we saw in the playoff loss, they are heavy on undersized possession receivers, who can be jammed at the line of scrimmage.

WR is not one of their top needs, but they would do well to look at some options in round three, such as Leonard Hankerson (Miami), Torrey Smith (Maryland), Austin Pettis (Boise State), and Tandon Doss (Indiana).

RUNNING BACK

Much like the WR position, the Patriots’ running back corps has two guys, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, who aren’t game breakers but get the job done.  As long as the line blocks for them, they’ll get consistent yardage.  I’ve seen a lot of people mock Mark Ingram to the Patriots under the assumption that he’s too good of a value to pass up at #28, but Belichick likes to rotate his RBs, so a superstar feature back would be wasted in the Patriots offense. 

Rather, they will likely look for another guy to plug into the rotation in round four or five.  Shane Vereen (California), DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma), and Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State) are some possible targets here.

I believe the Patriots are set at all of their other positions, and will simply look for depth with the rest of their picks.  With that in mind, here is how an ideal draft would play out for them.

First Round (#17): DE Cameron Jordan, California

First Round (#28): OLB Justin Houston, Georgia

Second Round (#33): G/C Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State

Second Round (#60): CB Curtis Brown, Texas

Third Round (#74): OT Joseph Barksdale, LSU

Third Round (#92): WR Austin Pettis, Boise State

Fourth Round (#124): RB Shane Vereen, California

Fifth Round (#156): A second guard if Mankins leaves; depth at safety, offensive line, or defensive line if he is re-signed

Sixth Round (#184): S/OL/DL depth

As frustrating as it was to fall short of the Super Bowl this year after a great regular season, the Patriots can comfort themselves with the next best thing: the ability to put themselves in position to contend for another decade.