2011 National League East: A Battle for Bullpen Supremacy?
This offseason has produced a number of memorable headlines like the Zack Greinke trade, the eight-player Matt Garza trade and the Adrian Gonzalez-Carl Crawford duo headed to Beantown. When looking at how strong a team is, people usually only cite the offense and starting pitching. Bullpens are often overlooked despite the clear correlation between winning ball clubs and the strength of their relievers.
The 2010 San Francisco Giants had a strong bullpen, which was one of the major contributing factors to their World Series victory. On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Pirates had an awful bullpen and won 57 games.
There have been three major deals involving the NL East this offseason: Cliff Lee to the Phillies, Dan Uggla to the Braves and Jayson Werth to the Nationals. The General Managers in this division have surreptitiously been stocking up on bullpen help this offseason. Maybe they realized that bullpens are key if you want to win a championship.
I will now rank the NL East bullpens and predict the division winner.
No. 5: Washington Nationals
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The Nationals bullpen will have a couple of new arms headed to spring training with the team this March. Todd Coffey has a fastball that can top out in the high 90s. The Nationals signed the free agent right-hander hoping that he will eat innings and regain his 2009 form. Henry Rodriguez is a 24 year old who consistently throws a 100 mph fastball. He was acquired from Oakland in the Josh Willingham trade. Though he has struggled with control in the past, he could be a nice late inning option for the Nationals.
Let's not forget about Tyler Clippard, who was so good for the Nationals in the set-up role in 2010. He can give innings and rack up strikeouts. The man everyone will have their eyes on is Drew Storen. Usually regarded as the "2009 first rounder who isn't Steven Strasburg," Storen has made a name for himself in his short time in the big leagues.
He has a nice mid-90s fastball, low 80s slider combination that was effective in racking up 8.46 K/9. The Nationals are hoping Storen is their closer of the future as he is only 23 years old and has very good stuff. I would definitely keep my eye on Storen if you are a fantasy owner looking for saves in 2011.
The reason I have the Nationals as having the worst bullpen in the division is that a number of guys had career years in 2010. Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard are two of those players. They put up numbers that completely defied expectations. My guess is these guys come down in 2011 as they have not proven themselves on a consistent basis.
Also, the Nationals lost their top reliever in Matt Capps at the end of last season. He provided experience for a very inexperienced bullpen. While I am interested in seeing young hard-throwers like Storen and Rodriguez, I wouldn't count on them to live up to their potential in their first full seasons in the big leagues.
No. 4: New York Mets
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Although 2010 may be a season to forget for most Mets fans, you could make a case that it was a good year for their bullpen. Their bullpen posted a 3.59 ERA, which was ninth in the major leagues. They were also able to cover for their lack of starting pitching by giving 481 innings. 2011 may be a better season.
The Mets acquired a few relievers this offseason. Taylor Buchholz came back from Tommy John surgery and could be a very valuable asset if he returns to his 2008 form from his days with the Rockies. They also acquired left-handed Tim Byrdak, who will probably inherit Pedro Feliciano's lefty specialist title. He figures to benefit from moving to a more spacious ballpark.
And last but not least, D.J. Carrasco will be coming to Queens. While a groundball pitcher in Citi Field may seem redundant, Carrasco should log innings and be a nice contributor to this Mets club.
We shouldn't forget about the players who impressed for the Mets in 2010. Jenrry Mejia's 2010 ERA does not show people how nasty he was. A high 90s fastball, high 70s curveball and a low 80s slider and changeup is quite the arsenal. The best part is he's only 21 years old. Though he will probably start the season in AAA, you should expect to see Mejia pitch again in 2011. There's also Manny Acosta, who had a nice bounce-back year from a poor 2009 season with the Braves.
Bobby Parnell is another hard thrower with some nasty stuff who delivered in 2010. He could be a setup candidate in 2011. Even though there were off-the-field issues with Francisco Rodriguez, he still pitched well overall. After assaulting his ex-girlfriend's father, there were some concerns as to how his arm would be. According to the Mets, he's fine and has been attending anger management. 2011 is his contract year. In his previous contract year, he set the single-season saves record.
I have the Mets at fourth because there are a couple of questions. They beat out the Nationals because of their experienced relievers. I wonder about guys like Acosta, who delivered above average performances in 2010. All we know about Bobby Parnell is that he can throw 100 mph and he's injury-prone. We will also see how Brooklyn product Pedro Beato does for the Mets. He was their Rule-5 Draft selection from the Orioles. Regardless, the Mets bullpen will be one to watch in 2011.
No. 3: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies made history this offseason with the acquisition of Cliff Lee. The 2011 Phillies starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton is perhaps the greatest in the history of the game. So how does this affect the bullpen? These starters will certainly give many innings, which means there will be less strain on the Phillies' bullpen.
The Phillies have a couple of young arms to look forward to in the pen this season. Antonio Bastardo struck out 26 batters in 18.2 innings in the majors in 2010. This is not far off from his minor league numbers. The southpaw could be a nice late inning option for the Phils. Canadian prospect Scott Mathieson should also see more time in the majors. He throws a mid-to-high 90s fastball with low 80s off-speed pitches.
Then you have the veterans. Jose Contreras is a righty with a nice splitter that is very successful against lefties. He can still throw in the high 90s despite being 40 years old. Ryan Madson is one of the best setup men in baseball with his nasty array of pitches.
And then there's Brad Lidge. He had an inconsistent 2010 that ended on a high note. From August 1 until the end of the regular season, Lidge registered a 0.73 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. He lived up to the "Lights out Lidge" nickname. If he continues this in 2011, I don't see how the Phillies can lose.
The Phillies rank third because while there's plenty of talent here, there's plenty of bad guys such as J.C. Romero and Danys Baez. Though young, David Herndon isn't too impressive either. The bullpen will be successful because of the quality of the starting rotation. Unless there's some sort of injury, I'm sure the Phillies will log fewer innings than anyone in baseball. Fewer innings usually leads to better individual performances.
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No. 2: Florida Marlins
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The Marlins went into the 2011 offseason with one major goal in mind: to improve the bullpen even at the cost of trading away some talent. Their first deal was trading Andrew Miller, a once promising southpaw prospect from the Miguel Cabrera trade, to the Red Sox for Dustin Richardson, a 27-year-old southpaw reliever with good minor league numbers.
Cameron Maybin, a young and multi-skilled outfielder who also came in the Cabrera trade, was then traded one day later to the Padres for Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. Then came the Dan Uggla trade, which netted the Marlins left-handed reliever Mike Dunn. They also signed Randy Choate.
Richardson likely won't be of much significance to the team, but he's a nice depth piece. Edward Mujica has good strikeout numbers but has seen his home runs increase. He could be a sixth or seventh inning reliever.
Ryan Webb is young and put together a strong season for the Padres in 2010. He's a promising eighth inning candidate. Mike Dunn is a young, hard-throwing lefty who is good at getting strikeouts. He could be a nice eighth inning option for the Fish. Randy Choate will likely be the lefty specialist and has been productive there in years past.
As for the guys who were there last season, Clay Hensley did a phenomenal job for the Marlins last year. His 2.16 ERA in 2010 is not likely to be repeated in 2011, but expect him to still produce for his team. Brian Sanches also put together a nice season and could be a seventh inning option. Burke Badenhop is a top of the line long relief option.
And of course, we can't forget about Leo Nunez. I remember watching him when he was setting up for Soria in Kansas City and commenting on his skill. Two years and two pitches added to his arsenal later and he's a high-quality closer. The 28 year old should put together another strong season in 2011. Fantasy owners should be on the lookout for this guy.
Clearly, the Marlins have made some nice moves for their bullpen this offseason. Top to bottom it's pretty complete. One thing to watch for is to see how some of these Padres relievers do when pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
No. 1: Atlanta Braves
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If you thought the last slide about the Marlins was good, wait until you see what the 2011 Braves bullpen contains.
Although their 2010 closer (Billy Wagner) retired, they have his heir apparent from the right side in Craig Kimbrel. He throws in the high 90s consistently and struck out 40 batters in 20.2 innings. He's definitely a joy to watch. Jonny Venters, a southpaw, will battle with Kimbrel for the closer's role in spring training. I'll take Kimbrel to win the battle, though Venters is also a very good reliever. Venters posted a 1.95 ERA in 83 innings setting up for Wagner in 2010.
Then you have your groundball righty in Peter Moylan. With a submarine delivery, he strikes guys out and gets the grounders. Though he's coming off a rough 2010, I expect a bounce-back year in 2011. Eric O'Flaherty is a lefty specialist who really came into his own in 2010.
There's also the guys the Braves acquired this offseason: Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill. Both were free agent veterans and buy-low candidates. I think Linebrink will benefit from a move to the NL and a more spacious ballpark. Home runs were his problem with the White Sox so this should be a good move. George Sherrill is one season removed from a very nice season setting up for Jonathan Broxton in Los Angeles. I think he too will benefit from a change of scenery and a less pressure-filled role.
The last three spots are more or less up for grabs. The guys in line to fill those spots are Cristhian Martinez, Scott Proctor and Brandon Beachy. Martinez was a late season acquisition in 2010 from the Marlins. He has some nice pitches and has some nice peripherals. Proctor has struggled in recent years after getting Tommy John surgery. Though, the Braves offered him an incentive-laden contract, so he may have a nice year if he can regain his previous form.
Beachy did well in his September call-up in 2010. He posted a 3.00 ERA over three starts. He could be between the bullpen and starting rotation if there are any injuries.
While the Marlins pen is very good, I think this bullpen has more quality relievers. The two bullpens should be among the best in baseball next season.
Favorites To Win the NL East
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While the Phillies may have the third-best bullpen in the division, ultimately it will be their starting pitching that will carry them in this division. But, do not be surprised to see the Braves and Marlins competing for the division. A more realistic goal for both is the Wild Card. Both are well-rounded teams. As for the Mets and Nationals, they are not quite there yet. Both teams have too many holes to be contenders.
In conclusion, get excited for bullpens, because they are what determines who wins close late inning games.
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