2011 NFL Draft: The Few, the Proud and the 10 Best Offensive Skill Players

Several nights after the BCS National Championship game, I was getting ready to publish a Bleacher Report column predicting that Cam Newton would stay in college; then I watched SportsCenter the following morning. We all know how that worked out. Cam is taking his talents to the NFL, he’ll probably be a first round pick, and Auburn will be trying to replace a one-year college football legend.

Why did I think he would stay? I'll just say that I think he should have stayed. He was literally a god on campus, he had a chance for a second straight national title and Heisman trophy, a chance to polish his skills and move up on the scouts’ draft boards, and of course we all know that money’s not an issue for Cam! (That was for you Auburn fans!)

But obviously, my prediction was wrong. And to be honest, even without the extra year of development, I actually think Cam will surprise people as an NFL quarterback. Without getting into expert scout analysis of his throwing motion, foot work, and familiarity with a certain type of offense, here’s what I know: Cam Newton had one of the top three single seasons in passer efficiency in FBS history, he’s a legitimate dual threat every down, he weighs more than many NFL linebackers but still moves remarkably quickly, and, oh yeah, he’s a winner.

With Andrew Luck staying in college—now that’s a mistake (Jake Locker fervently agrees)—Cam’s competition at QB has become seriously diluted. There are some solid candidates, but the 2011 Draft isn’t exactly challenging 1983 for the “Best QB Draft Class Ever” title, and that's bad news for some teams out there. 2010 was a year with some awful quarterback play in the pros, so several teams will be looking to snag a new franchise QB. 

Consistent with the relative shortage of elite signal callers is the overall reduced quality of offensive skill players in this year’s draft class. Contrary to seasons past, defensive players dominate the scouts’ draft boards. According to Scouts Inc., 19 of the Top 32 rated players are defenders (this number has fluctuated up to 21 and back), including 8 of the top 10 projected picks. Compare that to 13 defenders chosen in 2009’s entire first round.

In 2011, where are the dynamic, explosive play makers? Where are the skill position sure bets? It seems to me like the only one was Andrew Luck, and he’s going back to Stanford next year. In this year’s NFL Draft, defense reigns. There aren't many C.J. Spillers, Sam Bradfords, Staffords or Crabtrees. The first round in 2011 will be dominated by defenders. So, other than O-linemen, who are the best available players on the offensive side of the ball? I’m glad you asked. 

The Top 10 Offensive Skill Players in the 2011 NFL Draft

No. 10: Ryan Williams

After a record-setting freshman year in 2009 for the Hokies, Ryan Williams missed significant time last fall with hamstring injuries, so his numbers dropped a bit. It also didn't help his stats that the guy who started in 2008,All ACC tailback Darren Evans, who missed '09 with a blown out knee,came back in 2010 and split carries with Williams. Scouts have pegged Williams as the stronger pro prospect of the two Virginia Tech ball carriers. He's similar to a back we'll discuss later—Mark Ingram. Not the most physically domineering tailback, but a reliable runner nonetheless, with the potential to effectively complement a number one back in the pros. 

Where he'll go: Mid-late 2nd round; he'll probably be one of the top 3 or 4 running backs chosen, but this year that won't mean 1st round. 

No. 9: Torrey Smith

Don't worry, Torrey Smith is the last ACC player we'll discuss today. The Terps' leader is the better of two quality wide receivers in the conference, the other being the U's Leonard Hankerson. Smith isn't the tallest pass catcher (he's 6'1") but he's fast, has lateral quickness, and pulls in some outstanding grabs. I expect him to factor into his future team's passing offense as a 3rd or 4th option or even a backup initially. He's most likely to make an immediate impact in the return game, having broken the ACC career mark for return yards set by former Tar Heel Brandon Tate (now a return threat for the Patriots).

Where he'll go: Mid-late 2nd round; wide receivers typically only crack the first round if they're in the perceived elite tier (think Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss). Smith is probably a second-tier wideout and won't be picked over a couple of particular pass catchers from the SEC. 

No. 8: DeMarco Murray

The running back from Oklahoma set the school mark for TDs in his senior season. Murray finished his career strong, turning in career highs in rush yards (1,214), receiving yards (594), and total scores with 20. At over 6 feet tall, over 200 pounds, and with a 40 time in the 4.40s, Murray has the physical makeup of a solid number one or two running back in the pros. Having played college ball at a premier program, Murray should also be accustomed to high expectations and playing with pressure. Furthermore, he's got hands, so he's capable of play making as a receiver. Injuries are his primary weakness, having sustained numerous since his freshman year. 

Where he'll go: Early-mid 2nd round; teams in the pros are always looking for good running backs, but they might shy away from picking him too early because of questions about his durability . If I were an NFL GM, I'd still take DeMarco Murray over most running backs in the field. 

No. 7: Blaine Gabbert

Gabbert emerged as a strong NFL prospect this year, having lead the Mizzou Tigers to an overachieving season, beating number one Oklahoma, and only losing two regular season games. He has ideal size for a pro-style quarterback (6'5" 235 lbs), and has passed efficiently during his career, throwing for over 3,000 yards with a rating of over 125 in each of his years as the starter. As a junior this past season, most of his numbers dropped from his sophomore year, including yards, touchdowns, and passer efficiency rating, although his completion percentage rose slightly. Blaine Gabbert shouldn't start immediately—although he might have to—and he won't have the kind of impact that Sam Bradford had for the Rams this year. But with effective tutelage and coaching, I think he can mature into a strong NFL quarterback. 

Where he'll go: Mid 1st round; in a normal year he wouldn't be picked this high, but between the serious quarterback needs of some NFL teams, and the shortage of elite prospects in the draft, he'll be chosen relatively quickly. My guess is he'll be picked by the Vikings at number 12 and will be expected to take over for Tarvaris Jackson within a year or two. 

No. 6: Jake Locker

What a sad story! It was between Locker and Bradford for the sure bet, number one overall pick in last year's draft, before Locker announced he was staying for his senior year. If you're guaranteed a shot at a first round rookie contract (and rated number 1 or 2 overall), why do you stay to play for a mediocre school in a challenging conference? What did he gain by staying? Nothing. Unfortunately for Locker (and perhaps fortunately for NFL teams), his senior season exposed some weaknesses, as his yards, touchdowns and efficiency rating all dropped. Still, Locker has the physical tools—arm, size, legs—to be great in the pros. He reminds me of Aaron Rodgers coming out of college, only a little less cool, calm, and collected. Similar to Gabbert, I think he will be great if he works hard and is coached properly. 

Where he'll go: Early-mid 1st round; Maybe the Redskins take him at number 10, as Shanahan will be looking to start fresh after last season's McNabb-Grossman game of "who's less likely to throw an interception?" Blaine Gabbert could leapfrog Jake Locker because of their 2010 performances, but I think Locker will be the better pro quarterback. 

No. 5: Julio Jones

Here begins the run of elite SEC prospects, as my top five all played in this conference. Surprised? I'm not either. Julio Jones is an ideal physical specimen for wide receiver in the NFL. He doesn't have Percy Harvin speed, but he has Andre Johnson size and plays well in big games. He got better in each of his three years at Alabama, won a national championship, and torched several SEC defenses, including this year's national champs, Auburn, for 199 yards and a TD (albeit in a loss). He's going to start immediately and he's going to get better. There's only one wide receiver in this year's draft better than Julio and he's coming up later. 

Where he'll go: Mid-1st round; Julio may slide a bit more than he should, due to other more urgent position needs of some of the teams picking early. I predict he'll be available for the Rams and they'll pick him at 14 to team up with Sam Bradford. (I doubt the NFC West will be won by a team with a losing record again next year.) 

No. 4: Ryan Mallett

This year's best prototypical, pocket-passing NFL quarterback. (Panthers fans are still steaming about a certain junior's decision to stay in school.) Everyone who's watched Mallett knows that he has a cannon, throws a pretty spiral, and just looks the part. He's the size of a defensive end (6'7" 235 lbs) and threw a passer efficiency rating in the 160s against SEC defenses this past fall. Nuff said. Why isn't he rated higher? Lack of mobility. In the new NFL, quarterbacks are expected to run. Think Rodgers, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez, Jay Cutler, and yep, Andrew Luck. Mallett can't keep up with those guys on the ground, but he still has the tools to be a proficient passer in the pros. 

Where he'll go: Early-mid 1st round; I'll go with Tennessee at number 8. Mallett is well equipped to learn from veteran Kerry Collins and take the reigns fairly quickly, since Collins is rapidly approaching the age when he'll be drawing social security. And what was that other guy's name? Vince something?

No. 3: Cam Newton

I'll do my best here to avoid repeating some of the points I made in the beginning of this column. The biggest thing that has me sold on Cam, other than the fact that he's already expertly skilled in the whole agent process, is the fact that he possesses the intangibles. He's a remarkable leader, his teammates seem to love him, he regularly comes through in the clutch, he doesn't lose games, and we haven't seen any of the attitude problems that came with some other uber-popular quarterbacks like Vince Young, Cutler, and Ryan Leaf (hah!...Leaf...). Is he a perfect pocket passer? No, but it seems like he has the right intangibles and with a solid baseline of athletic ability, I believe he can be a dynamic play maker, a charismatic leader, and a good-enough passer. He may not throw as effectively as Mallett, but the NFL is changing and great quarterbacks will have to possess both quickness and charisma. Newton's got 'em both. 

Where he'll go: Early 1st round, again based on position need; if I were the Arizona Cardinals, I'd take him at number 5 based purely on position need. (And I mean dire need.) He could very well slip, since GMs frequently value size and throwing motion over the intangibles. In this case, I think that's a mistake. 

No. 2: Mark Ingram

It's already been said before, but Mark Ingram reminds me of Emmitt Smith. Why? Because he's black, wears number 22, and played in the SEC of course! Just kidding. Ingram won't compete with Chris Johnson in the 40 yard dash, he won't break ankles like Barry Sanders, and he probably won't truck linebackers the way Adrian Peterson does. But both he and Emmitt Smith possess(ed) the oft-overlooked qualities in elite NFL running backs: durability, patience, vision, and the ability to extend runs after contact. In today's 2-or-3-featured-backs offenses, Ingram has the strength and skills to instantly be a productive number 1 or 2 tailback in the pros. Also, he's a winner. 

Where he'll go: Middle 1st round, considering there are far fewer weaknesses among NFL teams at the running back position than there are at quarterback. My guess is Detroit takes him at 13. 

No. 1: A.J. Green

Green is this year's Dez Bryant only faster, longer, and with better hands. He's by far the most electric player in the draft, doesn't drop passes, and carries his team in important games. Upon his return from suspension—another thing him and Dez have in common!—Green transformed UGA's offense from a liability into a scoring machine. Seriously, look at Georgia's schedule this past fall. A.J.'s first game back was the Colorado game. Look at the difference in points scored by Georgia before and after he joined the offense! Granted, he only scored 9 touchdowns, but it's not a coincidence that the rest of the offense picked up when he started playing again. His confidence, leadership, and presence on the field provided an enormous spark for the Dawgs, and altered opposing coaches' game plans. Expect the same on Sundays this fall. 

There are a handful of wide receivers in the NFL who are better than A.J. Green is today (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, umm...), but no more than a handful. I expect Green to provide an instant impact on whatever offense he joins, particularly if he's catching passes from a decent quarterback. 

Where he'll go: Early 1st round; depending on what happens with T.Ocho (both have indicated they'd rather play somewhere else), the Bengals may take Green at number 4.

Keep in mind the first round is packed with outstanding pro talent on the defensive side of the ball. I doubt any offensive skill players are picked over DaQuan Bowers, Nick Fairley, or Patrick Peterson. Then again, just like every year, there will be many surprises on the day of the draft, and we won't really know who the best players are until a few years from now. So before you tell me I'm an idiot for ranking players a certain way, wait until 2015 and we'll revisit the discussion.