Rafael Nadal: Does His Slam Loss Signal Roger Federer's Return To No. 1?
Rafael Nadal's quest to win four straight Grand Slam tournaments came to an end on Wednesday when he lost 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 in straight sets to Spaniard David Ferrer.
Nadal was victorious in last year's French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open. He was trying to add the Australian Open title and hold all four major trophies, which hasn't been done since 1969. Unfortunately for Nadal, he dealt with a nagging injury throughout the match and was unable to get anything positive going his way.
While Nadal does remain the No. 1 player in the world despite the loss, his biggest competition, No. 2 ranked Roger Federer, is still very much alive in the Australian Open and certainly must like the idea of not having to see Rafa in the finals. So, if Federer does continue to play well and closes out the tournament with an Australian Open championship, should he pass Nadal and take back the No. 1 world ranking that was once his?
Let's break this down and look at some reasons why and why not Federer could return to No. 1 in the world rankings?
Yes: Federer Has Been Playing Great As of Late
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Outside of his second round five set victory over Gilles Simon, Federer has dominated his competition up to this point in the Australian Open.
In his other four matches, he has only dropped one set and cruised to a straight set victory in his quarterfinal match against Stanislas Wawrinka, who is a good young player that is ranked in the top 20 in the world.
Federer opened 2011 by winning the ATP Qatar ExonnMobil Open and has not lost a match yet in 2011. You think he got a little motivated by those people who said he was past his prime?
No: Nadal Lost To a Respectable Opponent
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Yes, Rafa did lose before he was supposed to. But, it wasn't like he lost to some no-name player.
David Ferrer is the No. 7 ranked player in the world, and a very respected player in the professional tennis circuit. He has a career winning percentage of 63 percent and has won nine singles titles in the past five years.
If Nadal lost to an unranked player, someone out of the top 30, then maybe this would be an argument. But Ferrer is a very good player, who could very well go on and make a run at winning this whole tournament.
Yes: Everything Is in Place Now for Federer To Win the Australian Open
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With Nadal losing in the quarterfinal round, all the cards are set up now for Federer to win this tournament.
He is set to take on Novak Djokovic on Thursday in the semifinal round and if he wins that, he will meet the winner of the Andy Murray vs. David Ferrer match in the championship.
If he beats No. 3 Djokovic and No. 5 Murray, both in dominant fashion, then this argument for Federer to return to No. 1 could take on a whole new meaning. He would certainly have the resume here to make a case for himself returning to the top.
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No: This Is Way Too Early to Make Assumptions
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Just because Nadal lost doesn't mean that Roger Federer is going to cruise to the Australian Open championship.
If Federer does not win the Australian Open, then this is not even an argument. Nadal has all the ability and the resume to back up his No. 1 world ranking. Federer is the only player on the planet who should ever challenge him for that No. 1 world ranking, but until Federer adds some more major championships to his resume, this should not be a conversation.
Yes: With a Victory, Federer Will Be Perfect in 2011
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As stated earlier, Roger Federer's chances of returning to No. 1 right now are not realistic, unless he wins the Australian Open in convincing fashion.
But if he does win, Federer has a nice start to the year to go down on his resume. He started 2011 off with a championship win at the ATP Qatar ExxonMobil Open and adding this major championship would certainly be a plus.
It is scary how very close Nadal and Federer's career winning percentages are to each other. Nadal's is at 82 percent and Federer at 80 percent. With a win at the Australian Open, he would continue to close that gap.
No: Look at the Numbers
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Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are hands down the top two tennis players in the world, but if you look at the numbers, Nadal has every right to be ranked as the world's No. 1 player.
Nadal has a better career winning percentage and has simply been the more dominant player in the past couple of years, which is what matters most in the ranking system. Nadal has won 26 singles titles since 2007, compared to Federer's 20.
Most importantly, Nadal has been dominant as of late, winning three major championships. But we will dive into that argument soon.
Yes: If Not Now, Then Eventually
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Rafael Nadal appeared to have tears in his eyes during his last match and was forced to take a medical timeout for an apparent leg injury after three games. He was not himself at all, playing through what looked like to be a nagging injury and a virus, which had been well-documented coming into the tournament.
With that said, it could be possible that Nadal might have to take some time off before returning to the court. That could only help Federer's chances of returning to No. 1.
If Federer is able to pick up a couple tournament championships while Rafa is sidelined, he could very well increase that argument to be back on top of the world rankings.
No: He Had To Play Injured
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Like mentioned in the previous slide, Rafa entered his match against Ferrer a little banged up and fighting a virus, and midway through the match he was noticeably in pain due to a leg injury.
Last year, Nadal retired against Andy Murray because of a right knee injury that kept him out of tennis for just about two months. The virus that he was dealing with was something that he picked up two weeks ago in Doha at the start of the year. He sweated profusely in his opening matches of the Australian Open, which raised reason for concern.
With that said, Rafa still went out and gave his all to try and win his fourth consecutive Grand Slam because he knew that people wanted to see that happen. They wanted to be in the presence of history.
Nadal should not lose his No. 1 ranking because of an injury. He will take some time off, get back to full health and chances are, he will come back even stronger. Nadal had two months off after the Australian Open last year, and look how that worked out for him.
Yes: Last Year's Motivation
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It was a speculation that was traveling like wildfire across the tennis world.
"Roger Federer is on his way down."
"Roger Federer is not the same player he used to be."
Do you think for a second that Federer did not hear those types of remarks and use that as motivation? He wants nothing more than to show the world that he is far from down, and that he is in fact playing some of the best tennis of his career right now.
Federer knows that those speculations are floating around, and winning the Australian Open could quickly put an end to those talks and only enhance his chances of regaining that No. 1 world ranking. His return to the top could be closer than we think.
No: Nadal Has Won the Past Three Major Tournaments
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This is the main reason here why Nadal's loss will not signal Rodger Federer's return to No. 1: Nadal won last year's French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open. He was trying to add the Australian title and hold all four major trophies, which hasn't been achieved since Rod Laver won four in a row in 1969.
You can not win three consecutive majors, and then drop out of the world's No. 1 ranking just because you can't win the fourth major.
Nadal had one of the most memorable years in tennis history last season. He has played at an extremely high level, and has not lost to Federer in a major tournament in over a year.
Conclusion
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There should be no question in anyone's mind that these are the two best tennis players in the world right now.
While Roger Federer is still alive in the Australian Open and has been playing some very inspired tennis as of late, the facts are that Nadal has done more in the past couple of years to earn that No. 1 ranking, and that title should be attached to his name for years to come.
Nadal has won three straight Grand Slam tournaments. He was going for his fourth, something that hasn't been accomplished in 42 years. There is no way that anyone could look past that and convince themselves that he isn't worthy of the world top ranking.
Rafael Nadal is the No. 1 player in the world and will stay the No. 1 player in the world. Sorry Roger, but he's got you beat there.
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