2011 NFL Mock Draft: Best & Worst Case Scenarios for All 32 Teams
Everyone has their own beliefs on what their team should do on draft day. But that doesn't mean what they want will happen.
As we approach draft day, fans are starting to form their own best case and worst case scenarios, especially for the first round.
Getting the first-round draft pick right can mean the difference between being a five-win team and being a playoff team.
Get the first-round draft pick wrong, and you can set your organization back two years.
So here's a look at each team, and what their best and worst case scenarios are.
1. Carolina Panthers
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For the Carolina Panthers, having the No. 1 overall pick with so many needs on the team means it's very difficult to screw up.
But screw it up they can.
Worst Case: The Panthers decide Jimmy Clausen is not the quarterback of the future, decide they can't wait for a new collective bargaining agreement and draft Cam Newton. Newton is not ready to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He needs seasoning and the Panthers may not have the patience to develop him properly.
Best Case: Nick Fairley is the best option for the Panthers. He's NFL-ready and he'll give the Panthers a fearsome weapon on their defensive line.
2. Denver Broncos
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The Broncos also have some heavy rebuilding to do after a complete collapse on defense last year and a lot of questions surrounding the rest of the team.
Like the Panthers, though, this pick can be screwed up.
Worst Case: The Broncos go with the wrong line of thinking and take an offensive lineman like Gabe Carimi.
Best Case: Patrick Peterson. It's unusual to take a defensive back this high, but Peterson is being touted as the best DB prospect in years, and it's not like the Broncos don't have issues there. Champ Bailey may leave and Perrish Cox may be going to jail.
3. Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills have been languishing at or near the bottom of the AFC East the last few years, and they enter this draft with a lot of big questions.
Do they draft another quarterback high? Do they focus on the defense? Do they punt?
Worst Case: The front office decides Cam Newton is the answer, figuring he can develop behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not that this couldn't work out, but if this is the route the Bills are going to go, they can get a project quarterback in the second or third round.
Best Case: Nick Fairley. If the Panthers decide to pick A.J. Green, or one of other big names, then the Bills will get their chance to take one of the best defensive lineman in the draft.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals
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The Bengals are a mess. Even though they ended up retaining Marvin Lewis as the head coach, what have the Bengals really done with Lewis? They aren't exactly playoff regulars and the 2009 season now looks more like a fluke than a team that was headed in the right direction.
Worst Case: Jake Locker. The Bengals may not have Carson Palmer on the roster by the time draft day comes as Palmer may follow through on his plan to retire if he isn't traded. The Bengals front office then may panic and draft a quarterback with their first pick and throw him to the wolves to be eaten alive.
Best Case: A.J. Green. Palmer probably isn't going anywhere, and if he does, it may be a swap with another team looking to dump their quarterback. So giving whoever is behind center the best receiver in the draft would be a great idea.
5. Arizona Cardinals
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The Cardinals just fell apart this year, proving that if you don't have a quarterback, you don't have much of a chance of winning anything.
The Cardinals have lots of ways to go, but they can go the wrong way.
Worst Case: Any quarterback. Pick a quarterback prospect and put him here and that's the wrong way to go. The Cardinals look like they already have a good project in John Skelton who now has a year in the system. The Cardinals either need to throw all their resources behind him or get a veteran to run the team for a few years until Skelton really comes into his own.
Best Case: Robert Quinn. The Cardinals defense just collapsed last year, so you could put about a half-dozen defensive prospects here and it would be a great pick. Quinn seems like he'd work out the best.
6. Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns hit the reset button...again, and now it looks like they'll be switching from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3. The good news is the Browns have to make massive personnel changes on the defense anyway; the bad news is those who remain still have to learn a new system.
Worst Case: Mark Ingram. General manager Tom Heckert made a huge reach last year for an injury prone running back who had one healthy season since leaving high school in Montario Hardesty. Hardesty rewarded the Browns reach by living up to expectations and tearing his ACL. If the Browns decide they need to get Peyton Hillis another guy in the backfield now, this is the way they would screw it up.
Best Case: Da'Quan Bowers. Bowers is the kind of prospect that looks really shiny this time of year, and there's no doubt the Browns need pass rushers. You also could put a wide receiver here like A.J. Green and not upset anybody.
7. San Francisco 49ers
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The 49ers, like many teams in the top 10 of the draft, have a lot of needs, and it's only in picking the wrong player position that can screw you up on the surface. Whether or not the player they pick is a bust can only be determined on the field.
Worst Case: A.J. Green. If Green falls to this slot and the 49ers decide to take him because of "best player available" reasoning, then that means they're ignoring needs, and the 49ers have too many needs to take "best player available" here.
Best Case: Marcell Dareus. Dareus is a great prospect for the 49ers defense and that should mean the 49ers are planning on handling their immediate quarterback needs through free agency or a trade. They can draft a quarterback later and then have less pressure to develop him overnight.
8. Tennessee Titans
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The Titans don't need to rebuild so much as they need to retool. They're not as bad as they looked at times in 2010, and as long as they don't go blowing everything up, the Titans can challenge for the playoffs in 2011.
Worst Case: Prince Amukamara. Amukamara is a great prospect, but it ignores the true needs of the team right now. If the Titans don't go with a quarterback, they need some help on their defensive line and need a better offensive lineman to open holes for Chris Johnson.
Best Case: Jake Locker. Locker is impressing people at the Senior Bowl and looks like he is turning a corner in his development. There is a good enough support system in Tennessee that Locker could be successful as a rookie.
9. Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys have a tricky job ahead of them as they have to get this draft right. Jerry Jones watched everything fall apart in 2010, and he has to make the right decisions in 2011.
Worst Case: Anthony Castonzo. If Jerry Jones decides the offensive line is the top priority, he's focusing on the wrong things. Yes, Tony Romo got knocked out for the year against the Giants, but that's not the right angle to take.
Best Case: Prince Amukamara. Mike Jenkins should never be allowed to put on an NFL uniform again; that's just how bad he played. The Cowboys need a new corner, and if I didn't already have Patrick Peterson mocked to the Broncos, I would've put Peterson here.
10. Washington Redskins
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Mike Shanahan lied to Redskins fans this year because he didn't tell them he was going to blow up the team and start over. The Donovan McNabb trade was a disaster from Day 1, and the Redskins could be even worse this year as Shanahan basically tries to rebuild in one year.
Worst Case: Blaine Gabbert. This means the Redskins either couldn't get another quarterback before the draft, or that they have decided they're going with a rookie. Gabbert is a project quarterback who currently has the ear of every GM, but the Redskins shouldn't be pulling the trigger on a project quarterback in the first round.
Best Case: Von Miller. The Redskins defense is atrocious. They need to improve their defense with the first-round pick and take a project quarterback in the second round.
11. Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans had a great offense last year, but the defense just let the whole team down. Now they have a new defensive coordinator, and the team will be infusing fresh talent.
Worst Case: Any offensive prospect. If the Texans draft an offensive lineman or skill player, then someone in the Texans front office didn't get the memo about the defense.
Best Case: Stephen Paea. Outside of Nick Fairley, Stephen Paea is looking like the best defensive tackle in the draft. Since Fairley won't be around by the time the Texans pick, Paea is the guy they need to go after, but any quality defensive line or defensive end prospect will work here.
12. Minnesota Vikings
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The Vikings need a quarterback, and they're going to take one in the first round.
Worst Case: Ryan Mallett. This means the Vikings either missed out or passed on Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton.
Best Case: Cam Newton. This is a good fit for Newton. He'll have time to develop because the Vikings probably still are going to go out and get a veteran.
13. Detroit Lions
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The Detroit Lions all of a sudden are a team on the rise since Matt Millen went to ESPN. And we're supposed to take anything that guy says seriously?
The Lions are drafting a lot better lately, and Ndamukong Suh is one of the prime examples of that.
Worst Case: Stefan Wisniewski. The Lions probably could use a new center, but this is far too high a pick for the Lions to take this guy.
Best Case: Akeem Ayers. The Lions need linebackers, and Ayers will fit the bill.
14. St. Louis Rams
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The Rams almost made the playoffs this year in the completely non-competitive NFC West. The NFC West could be slightly more competitive next year.
Worst Case: Nate Solder. This would again be a case of a front office not realizing what the true priorities are.
Best Case: A.J. Green. I put his name here because Julio Jones will be available. If Green somehow slips, Rams fans will be extremely happy.
15. Miami Dolphins
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The Dolphins are becoming a joke. They pushed out Bill Parcells, tried to hire a new head coach before firing the old one and now gave Tony Sparano an extension. They then hired Brian Daboll as their offensive coordinator, the guy who led the Browns offense to the basement two straight years in a row and also was Chad Pennington's quarterback coach the year he stopped being any good.
Worst Case: Cam Newton. As stated before, Newton is a project quarterback and the Dolphins do not have the personnel in the coaching area to develop him. This also would be a worst case for Newton, who would see his career ruined by inept coaching and short-sighted management.
Best Case: Mark Ingram. The Dolphins need a running back and even Daboll couldn't screw up Peyton Hillis . . . then again, let's not go underestimating how bad Daboll is.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jack Del Rio has to make the playoffs this year or he's out of a job. With that in mind, he can't screw up this draft.
Worst Case: If the Jaguars want to screw up the draft, they'll take someone like Julio Jones, a nice talent that fell to their spot, but not really a need they need to address in the first round.
Best Case: J.J. Watt. The Jags need a defensive end, and if Watt still is on the board, that would be a great pick for them.
17. New England Patriots
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Bill Belichick typically doesn't screw up the draft. He's got one of the best track records in the league as far as hits and misses go. Look how many of his 2010 picks either were starting or contributing this year, it's ridiculous.
Worst Case: Jonathan Baldwin. Again, not a bad pick, but Baldwin will be available later, so this would make Belichick guilty of reaching.
Best Case: Assuming Belichick doesn't trade down here, I'm a firm believer Adrian Clayborn is going to be a great pass rusher in the NFL.
18. San Diego Chargers
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Norv Turner had huge problems with his special teams, and despite his top ranking offense and defense, none of it ever seemed to come together.
Worst Case: Mark Ingram. The Chargers have lots of options at running back, but if they bite on trying to hit a home run with Ingram, it's just going to cause problems. Ingram is a special talent, which is why if he's still on the board when the Chargers pick there could be problems. Don't be seduced by taking a player you really don't need.
Best Case: Ryan Kerrigan. He'll probably be the best defensive end on the board at this point, and the Chargers do need to upgrade their pass rush.
19. New York Giants
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The Giants always are an enigma. They look like they'll make the Super Bowl one week, and then look like they couldn't win a Division III game the next week. The Giants need to use this draft to add more depth to every position and give Tom Coughlin more options.
Worst Case: Ryan Williams. Not that the Giants couldn't use some youth to re-energize the backfield, but it can wait until the second round.
Best Case: Nate Solder. Solder currently is the highest ranking offensive tackle on the ESPN Big Board. The Giants need to improve their line.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Buccaneers almost made the playoffs in 2010, so they need to do some retooling to get to the playoffs in 2011.
Worst Case: Drake Nevis. While Nevis wouldn't be the worst pick ever, the Bucs need people further down the line.
Best Case: Cameron Heyward. Heyward is likely to still be on the board, and he'll greatly improve the Buccaneers pass rush.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
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You heard it here first: the Kansas City Chiefs had the Bengals 2009 season. With Charlie Weis gone, expect the Chiefs offense to regress as a paranoid Todd Haley makes a lot of bad decisions.
Worst Case: Trading up to take A.J. Green. I can see this coming. The Chiefs have Dwayne Bowe, but that's about it for quality wide receivers. While I could see the Chiefs taking Julio Jones or Jonathan Baldwin at the No. 21 spot, Haley might decide to make headlines and trade up for A.J. Green. It will cost too much and come back to bite the Chiefs in the end.
Best Case: Adrian Clayborn could still be on the board at this point, and I think he'd actually be a steal here.
22. Indianapolis Colts
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The Colts have a problem. Head coach Jim Caldwell is an idiot, but the Irsay's are too stubborn to admit that. This will be the downfall of the Colts in the next few years, especially if Manning gets hurt or decides to retire because the money just isn't worth the pounding he's going to take.
Worst Case: Any player who isn't an offensive lineman. By this point in the draft, you will be in prime offensive linemen land. Passing up on any of the guys on the board because you want to take Julio Jones or a Ryan Kerrigan would be in-character for a coach who calls a timeout in the last minute of a playoff game to the benefit of the other team.
Best Case: Mike Pouncey. Look at what Maurkice Pouncey did for Pittsburgh. You know the Steelers want Mike, so don't let them take him.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles have to make sure Michael Vick stays protected going into 2011. As prone as Vick is to run, they need to make sure he doesn't have to run as much as he did in 2010. With that in mind:
Worst Case: Brandon Harris. The Eagles could use a new cornerback, but if you go after a cornerback over the offensive line in the first round, you've got your priorities screwed up.
Best Case: Gabe Carimi. Carimi most likely will be the Eagles best option at this pick, and he'll be a stud on that line for the next 10-12 years.
24. New Orleans Saints
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The Saints got bounced by the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. They played under their talent levels early in the season before rebounding late in the year. Still, the Seahawks exposed flaws in their defense that need to be corrected this offseason.
Worst Case: Mark Ingram. The Saints have had problems at running back, and any move they make to take this guy will be the wrong move.
Best Case: Cory Liuget. Liuget will give them a better run-stuffer, something they needed versus Marshawn Lynch.
25. Seattle Seahawks
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The Seahawks were a bad team in a bad division, so they need a lot more work than their surprise playoff win might indicate.
Worst Case: Jake Locker. By hook or by crook, the Seahawks make a move for a quarterback in the first round. Not that there isn't a need, but they need to hold off until the second round for a quarterback.
Best Case: Brandon Harris. The Seahawks were getting beaten left and right by Drew Brees and Jay Cutler, so they need a much better secondary.
26. Baltimore Ravens
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The Ravens are a tough team in a tough division. They fell short against the Steelers in the regular season and in the playoffs, so any moves they make have to be geared toward beating the Steelers because it's highly unlikely the Steelers are going anywhere next year.
Worst Case: Brandon Harris. The Ravens need a new cornerback, but that's just not their top priority. They would be passing over a bunch of talent to fill a need that can be addressed in the second round.
Best Case: Allen Bailey. The Ravens are going to need a fresh pass rusher to keep constant pressure on Ben Roethlisberger next year.
27. Atlanta Falcons
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The Falcons finished the season with a 13-3 record but got bounced by the Green Bay Packers. Despite having one of the most complete teams in the league most of the season, that turned out not to be true once the postseason started.
Worst Case: Rahim Moore. The Falcons need a new safety, but that can wait until Round 2. If the Falcons do take Moore, it means they feel their wide receivers and offensive lines are better than they performed against Green Bay.
Best Case: Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo is a stud offensive lineman, and he'll keep Matt Ryan upright long enough for Ryan to take care of business.
28. New England Patriots
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With their second pick, the Patriots probably will go offense, as long as they didn't go worst-case on their first pick. That is assuming the first pick went as planned.
Worst Case: Drake Nevis. This means all of the other options Belichick was looking at for this pick are off the table and he can't find anyone to trade with.
Best Case: Jonathan Baldwin. This means the Patriots upgraded the defense with their first pick and now they can give Tom Brady a nice wideout to throw deep to.
29. Chicago Bears
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The Bears may all of a sudden have a quarterback problem, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. No matter who might be taking the ball from center in 2011, the Bears need a better offensive line.
Worst Case: Justin Houston. This pick would mean the Bears front office had a complete lapse of judgment.
Best Case: Gabe Carimi. Carimi is just the kind of talent the Bears line needs and would go a long way toward increasing the respectability of the Bears offense around the league.
30. New York Jets
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The Jets could have a huge set of problems going into 2011 if they have trouble signing all of their free agents, but as far as the draft goes, they have to build the team to beat the Patriots.
Worst Case: Julio Jones. The Jets may try and trade up again to get a wide receiver if they feel they're going to lose both Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. Good receivers can be found in later rounds.
Best Case: Cameron Jordan. At their pick, this would be a great addition plus it will keep their pass rushing options wide open for 2011.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Yes, I'm picking the Packers to win the Super Bowl. Deal with it. The Steelers have two big needs next year: Offensive line, offensive line, and another cornerback.
Worst Case: Quinton Carter. The Steelers may feel they have to groom a replacement for Troy Polamalu. This pick would be way too early to do that, and it's doubtful the Steelers would make that kind of blunder, but this is a worst-case scenario.
Best Case: Mike Pouncey. This would be the biggest "can't miss" draft pick for the Steelers in their history.
32. Green Bay Packers
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The Packers are poised to be the Super Bowl champions, and in this scenario, that's exactly what they become. In the upcoming draft, the Packers will need to address their corners, and probably another good pass rusher. What they don't need to do is overthink things.
Worst Case: Ryan Williams. The running game has gotten better over the last month, and while the Packers wouldn't be out of line trying to add more depth at the position, doing it here is overthinking it.
Best Case: Cameron Heyward. Heyward would be a great pass-rushing threat to partner up with Clay Matthews. With those two on the field, opposing offenses would have to get creative in order to score a touchdown.
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