MLB 2011 Season Preview: 5 Long Shots You Should Take a Hard Look At
There is only one game left in another fascinating NFL season, so you all know what that means, it's time to start looking towards the MLB season (pitchers and catchers report in just a few weeks).
Of course everyone is talking about the usual suspects to win the World Series, but let’s be serious, who is going to drop money on a team that is 4-1 (Phillies), 4.5-1 (Red Sox), or 6.5-1 (Yankees) to win the World Series? That’s like betting on Tiger Woods to win a Tournament at his usual 4 or 5-1 odds; it’s just not monetarily smart.
So here are a few teams with great value that you should seriously look at as real players come October (with odds to win the World Series in brackets).
1. St. Louis Cardinals (23-1)
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The Cardinals were overtaken for first in the NL Central last year by the Reds, but this team is always near or at the top of the division.
It will be Matt Holliday's second year in St. Louis, so he should be a little more comfortable in the confines of Busch Stadium (while improving on his numbers from last year: 28 HR, 103 RBI). They also still have some guy named Pujols who is in the final year of his contract. If you aren’t familiar with how well baseball players tend to produce when they are in a contract year, please see Beltre, Adrian, as a prime example.
Not to mention the 1-2 punch of Cy Young contenders Cris Carpenter (also in the final year of his deal, and will be looking for one more contract before retirement) and Adam Wainwright can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league.
2. Chicago White Sox (23-1)
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It seems like so long ago that these guys won the World Series; perhaps this is the year where they make it back.
They have a solid young staff lead by veteran Mark Buehrle, while Jake Peavy should be back by May-June to upgrade it even more. If he can get back on the mound and stay healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the game.
The addition of Adam Dunn will also help increase their team total of 177 HR last year (fourth in the AL). He will join up with an already strong lineup of power (Quentin, Konerko, Ramirez, Rios).
Their AL Central foes also did not make any major upgrades this offseason either (Tigers: Martinez, Penny, Benoit; Twins: Nathan back from injury). And don't forget, GM Kenny Williams is never afraid to make a deal at the trade deadline.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (29-1)
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The Brewers made two great additions to their starting pitching this off-season by adding Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum (I have watched him pitch in Toronto the last 3 years, and he is GROSSLY underrated), which will certainly help their 13th best ERA in the NL last season.
They have power all over the diamond and look to stay near the top of the NL in hitting (third in AVG.fourth in R, and second in HR). Prince Fielder is in his contract year after signing a one-year arbitration deal. He'll be looking for a huge bounce back year after only having 83 RBI last year. Starting third baseman Casey McGehee will also be looking to improve on his solid season last year.
There are some questions in the bullpen but John Axford proved to be a reliable closer last season in the wake of Trevor Hoffman’s demise (24 saves in 27 opportunities with a 2.48 ERA). He and Takashi Saito will be a solid eighth-ninth inning tandem.
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4. Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim (29-1)
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The Angels had an off year last season finishing under .500 after their decade long reign as AL West powerhouses.
They didn't make a big splash in the free agent market like everyone was expecting, but they will have starter Dan Haren for a full season (better than his 12-12 mark last year while pitching with Arizona/Los Angeles). He will be slotted in between Jered Weaver (13-12. 233 K’s) and Ervin Santana (17-10, 3.92 ERA).
They also recently picked up former All-Star Vernon Wells from the Blue Jays, who is coming off a bounce back year after wrist surgery (31 HR, 88 RBI) and looks like he should be ready to play at an All-Star level once again. If Kendry Morales can stay healthy, he, Wells, and Torii Hunter will be a great 3-4-5 hitting combination.
This pick also infuses with the fact that I do not trust Texas to come anywhere near their record from last year, which makes this pick a great value bet for the season.
5. Oakland Athletics (34-1)
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Like the Anaheim selection, this is more based on having no confidence in Texas repeating as AL West Champs. The A's showed signs last year of being a playoff team, but never really pulled away from their seemingly stagnant .500 record.
They have great young arms (Cahill, Braden, Gonzalez) that finished first in the AL in ERA last season. The additions of Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes will also solidify their bullpen with breakout star Andrew Bailey closing out games for them (25 saves in 28 opportunities, 1.47 ERA). Also, if they can get anywhere near a half of a season from returning Rich Harden (can you please stay healthy for one year?), these guys could slip into the playoffs.
The additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham will also help the offense improve upon last season.
And The Winner Is....
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Now I am not saying these teams are guaranteed to make the World Series. These five ball clubs have real shots at winning their divisions, then anything can happen come playoff time.
However, like myself, I am sure you are all sick and tired of hearing everyone slurp the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies all offseason because of their additions during this past Winter. As San Francisco proved last year, you don't need to spend a billion dollars to win a World Series, and hopefully one of these teams proves it again in 2011.
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