Rafael Nadal's Greatness: How He Systematically Demolished Marin Cilic in Oz

Rafael Nadal booked his place in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Monday with a convincing victory over world No. 15 Marin Cilic, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3.

Nadal spent a little over two-and-a-half hours on court, methodically picking Cilic apart with a game plan that was as brilliantly devised as it was executed.

Nadal's strategy can really be explained in four steps.

1. Serve efficiently and make a high percentage of first serves.
2. Utilize the body serve to neutralize Cilic in the ad court or serve out wide to the backhand.
3. Step inside the baseline to return second serves in the deuce court, but stay back on the second serves in the ad court.
4. Approach the net off the forehand or when Cilic returns the ball short.

Nadal executed these points perfectly. Here are some specific graphics I made to illustrate what Nadal was able to do and how well he stuck to his game plan.

First Set

The image on the left shows where Nadal hit the first serve returns, while the one on the right illustrates how aggressive he was attacking the second serve. It shows that Nadal was much more worried about the serve out wide on the ad court, and by staying back he knew he could attack it with his topspin forehand to get the return deep.

There was one point in particular in this first set that, for me, shows Nadal's greatness. It combines his ability to return on the backhand, his lateral movement, his explosive speed and his touch at the net.

Cilic was serving at deuce at 1-3 in the set. 

Nadal loops the backhand return back deep inside the court, but Cilic has time to run around to his forehand and unleash a bullet cross court. Nadal goes side-to-side and hits a forehand at full stretch, but Cilic moved inside the baseline and played a great drop shot.

Nadal already took three small steps back toward the middle of the court after tracking down the ball and he then puts his head down and sprints to the net at full speed. ESPN said he covered 44.5ft getting to the drop shot. I timed it at 1.8 seconds. Not only did he get to the ball, but he had the touch and presence of mind to flick it over the low part of the net for a clean backhand winner.

This type of movement, combined with the game plan, allowed Nadal to win almost half of the points on the Cilic serve. Cilic didn't serve too well in the set, but Nadal was economical, both serving well and returning cleanly.

Second Set

Both players upped their game in the second set, serving better and making fewer unforced errors. Still, Nadal stuck to his plan, and even though he wasn't seeing as many second serves, when he did he employed the same tactic that was successful in the opening set.

Note the similarities between this graphic and the first one above. Nadal missed a few more returns (shown with the black dots here) but stuck to his guns and got the key break he needed at 3-3.

What made Nadal's serve so successful in the second set? The graphic below tells the story. There are two main things to note.

1. The first is that he consistently went to the Cilic backhand. Look at how many balls Cilic hit inside the doubles alley on the ad side of the court. That was started by the well-placed serve out wide. It's not as prevalent in the deuce court, but he again tried to stay away from the forehand and serve into the body.
2. The second thing is that he constantly kept Cilic on the move. Very few ground strokes were hit up the middle of the court and this meant that Nadal was creating angles and opening up the court. Cilic likes to go for a lot of shots, but he was less inclined to try to hit clean winners on the run.

Third Set

The third set didn't live up to the promise of the second, as Cilic started spraying the ball all over the place and consistently missed his first serve.

By contrast, Nadal knew the match was in his grasp and he played a very safe set. He hit only three winners but made just four errors. It wasn't because he had a significant dip in form, it was because he was playing smarter and responding to the situation as a desperate opponent tried to force things.

After serving out wide in the ad court for the last two hours, Nadal mixed it up in the third set to great advantage. He attacked the body more and, most importantly, kept Cilic guessing. This made for more unreturnable serves and easier second shots. The graphic below shows this variety.

Returning serve in the final set, Nadal won 16 of 38 points, mainly because Cilic had become so predictable. He was trying so hard to avoid the Nadal forehand that he almost exclusively went to the backhand wing.

This would have been okay in moderation, but because Nadal knew what was coming, he was able to set up so far to the right that he could essentially hit forehands on every return, even when the ball was out wide on the deuce court or up the middle on the other side.

If you look at the hit points in the bottom right of the graphic, these aren't points from the rallies, this is where Nadal went out wide to take the serve on the forehand.

Nadal did everything right against a good opponent in Cilic, and there were no signs of the virus or weight loss that he mentioned over the weekend.

The world No. 1 is in fantastic form and it will take a very special effort to beat him. David Ferrer awaits in the quarterfinals, but you have to expect Nadal to book his place in the semis.