NFL Draft 2011: Will a Quarterback Be Drafted in the Top Five?
This year's quarterback class leaves a lot to be desired. The absence of Andrew Luck has left a void of talent at the quarterback position at the top of the draft. There is a surplus of quarterbacks who grade out as a mid-to-late first round pick, but it is difficult to justify spending a top-five pick on one of these guys, or is it?
Last year, Sam Bradford was an obvious top-three selection. Jimmy Clausen was projected to follow closely behind him, but instead witnessed Tim Tebow's first round selection as he waited until the second day to hear his name called.
We saw Mark Sanchez' stock explode as the draft approached. The Jets traded all the way to the fifth spot to acquire Sanchez in a move that still generates controversy in New York. While no quarterback grades out in the minds of most scouts as a top-five pick, all it takes is one team to fall in love with one prospect.
There is a ton of need for a quarterback in the top of the draft this year. The Bengals, Redskins, Cardinals and 49ers are all teams in emergency situations. If any one of these three teams fails to get a quarterback in free agency, it is safe to say they are going to take a stab at one of the quarterbacks coming out. Both Arizona and Cincinnati pick in the top five.
Of all the quarterbacks coming out, it seems Blaine Gabbert may be the one that teams are most likely to take a chance on early. At 6'5" and 240 pounds, he has prototypical size. He is also a model citizen and has a work ethic that is easy to fall in love with. His leadership intangibles could take his draft stock to the next level.
Jake Locker underwent a disappointing season that was packed with splotchy quarterback play. He is an athletic guy (he was drafted by two MLB teams) but he as durability issues. The Rams showed just how trivial durability questions can turn out to be, but nobody wants an injury-prone quarterback. Then again, there could be a team at the top who points to the talent surrounding Locker as the reason for his disappointing season, rather than his own inadequacies.
Cam Newton is the quarterback I could see making a huge jump in the draft. He has unparalleled athleticism and is a proven winner. His mechanics are leaps and bounds ahead of where Tim Tebow and Vince Young were at this point. His National Championship performance could have a resounding affect in the minds of NFL scouts.
Some may view this pick as risky, but there are teams who may be willing to take that risk. There are 11 or so teams who I could see making a play for a quarterback this offseason and most of them are at the top of the draft.
Ryan Mallett is the only other quarterback I see being selected in the first round. At 6'7", he has a frame that you encounter once in a generation at the quarterback position. He has a big arm and is a pure pocket passer. There are questions about his maturity and his athletic ability is going to be under fire, but he shouldn't slip out of the first round or two.
While it doesn't seem like any of these four quarterbacks constitute a first round pick, the overwhelming need for a franchise quarterback combined with less than formidable competition at the position could force one of these quarterbacks to rise to the top. Whether they deserve to be selected in the top five will take a backseat to teams in the top five taking them there as a byproduct of a poor quarterback draft.
Defensive players are undoubtedly going to dominate the top of the draft, but if you are the best tackle or quarterback available, it can pay dividends. At this point, most mock drafts have the first quarterback being selected in the 6-10 range, but come draft day, don't be surprised to see a team take a gamble.
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