Australian Open: In a Swiss Mix Up, Stanislas Wawrinka Will Beat Roger Federer

The inevitable is coming, the match everyone wants.  After a scare in the second round, Roger Federer dispatched Xavier Malisse and Tommy Robredo to reach the quarters.  Nadal looks like he's playing against juniors.  It reminds me of when Kramer signed up for that kids' karate class.

Just a few more wins by Federer and Nadal and tennis fans get to watch what I'm sure will be billed "The Match of the Century." 

Except it's not going to happen.

There's another Swiss in the draw with a name better suited to a medieval jouster or a rare cheese.  Still, Stanislas Wawrinka can play some tennis.  Here are five (not always logical) reasons why he beats Federer on Tuesday.

5. Who's Playing Better Than Stan?

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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 23: Andy Roddick of the United States of America reacts after a shot in his fourth round match against Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland during day seven of the 2011 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 23, 2011 in

Speaking of cheese, Wawrinka poked Swiss cheese holes in Andy Roddick in the Round of 16.  The same Andy Roddick who led the field in aces and looked poised to make a legitimate run at the title.

Beating Andy Roddick isn't the biggest deal, but it's the latest in a string of convincing wins for Wawrinka.  After his solid run in the 2010 U.S. Open, he dropped just two sets in winning the 2011 Chennai Open and dispatched Tomas Berdych in the process. 

He hasn't dropped a set at the Australian.  He thumped 12th seeded Gael Monfils like a drum in the third round. Nadal and Murray have won as convincingly, but against lesser players. 

4. Federer Likes Wawrinka

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BEIJING - AUGUST 16: Roger Federer (right) and Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland celebrate after defeating Thomas Johansson and Simon Aspelin of Sweden during the men's doubles gold medal tennis match at the Olympic Green Tennis Center on Day 8 of the Be

Okay, this rationale makes little sense, but Federer and Wawrinka are buds.  Countrymen.  They teamed to win the 2008 gold medal in Beijing.  They beat the Bryan brothers in the semis. All good things.

Federer seems to like everyone.  But he really likes Nadal and Wawrinka.  And he hasn't had the best record against Nadal.  Maybe his sentimentally will hurt him against Wawrinka as well?

3. Uh, Sick Backhand!

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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 17: Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland plays a backhand in his first round match against Teymuraz Gabashvili of Russia during day one of the 2011 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 17, 2011 in Melbourne, Australia.

John McEnroe knew how to berate linesmen.  And he knows tennis.  Recently he said Wawrinka has one of the most powerful backhands ever and the best one-hander in the game. 

Make that the best backhand, period.  Better than Murray.  Better than Nadal.  Better than Djokovic.  And certainly better than Federer. 

Wawrinka should be able to use that backhand to exploit Federer's weaker wing.  It should earn him some short balls and easy points throughout the match. 

#2. Fed's Not in Top Form

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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 23: Roger Federer of Switzerland looks on in his fourth round match against Tommy Robredo of Spain during day seven of the 2011 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 23, 2011 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Rober

Federer's MO for winning majors is dominating throughout the fortnight.  In his last major victory, last year in Australia, he dropped the first set of the tournament and then lost just one more the rest of the way. 

But at Wimbledon last year, he escaped two mediocre performances in the opening rounds before falling to a much sharper Berdych.  The point: Federer didn't look as sharp as expected the first week in Australia. 

He almost got bounced by Simon, and played a few careless games against Robredo in losing the second set. 

When you stack up Fed against the rest of the field, he looks like a guy's who playing well enough to make, well, the quarters. 

Don't think such inconsistent play will be good enough to beat someone as hot as Wawrinka.

1. Show Me The Money

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NEWBURY, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 15: A punter gets his money ready for a wager at Newbury racecourse on December 15, 2010 in Newbury, England. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/ Getty Images)

The final argument is dubious.  In previewing the 2011 Australian Open I said Wawrinka was the best bet on the board at 80-1. 

So I bet $10 on him.  $800 sounds good to me, and Fed is the next roadblock.  So let's say Stan in straight sets, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4.  Got to save some energy for the semis.