2011 MLB: Why Chase Utley Means More To the Phillies than Ryan Howard
For most teams, reaching the 2011 National League Championship Series would be considered a successful season but not for the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies have won their division in four-straight seasons and appeared in two consecutive World Series, and anything but a World Series championship is a failure.
Looking back on the 2010 season, it is surprising the Phillies even made it that far. Plagued by injuries and inconsistency, the postseason in general was in doubt in Philadelphia. Two of those injuries, in particular, really crippled the Phillies' offense.
On Jun. 29, 2010, the injury bug struck Phillies' second baseman Chase Utley in a game against the Cincinnati Reds. While sliding headfirst into second base, Utley caught his thumb on the bag while the weight of his body pulled against it.
Though he stayed in the game, it was later revealed that Utley's thumb had torn ligaments and that he would miss six to eight weeks after surgery.
In the Utley way, though, he returned sooner than anticipated, but his swing suffered. Though he finished with a strong September, Utley hit just .208 in the month of August. Like most of the Phillies, he struggled through the postseason and will be fully healthy come spring training.
A little over a month after Utley's injury, first baseman Ryan Howard hit the disabled list as well.
In a game against the Washington Nationals, Howard was late rounding second base on his way to third, and in an attempt to get back to the base, rolled his ankle over the bag.
In a report from earlier this month, the ankle still has not healed entirely. Though he returned for the final month of the season and the postseason and had some success, his trademark power was noticeably absent come October.
With pitchers and catchers set to report for spring training in just over two weeks, Howard's health is still in the air.
Even still, both Utley and Howard will report to camp ready to play baseball, and if the Phillies are going to reach their third World Series in the last four seasons, those two men are going to have to have seasons they are accustomed to having.
Still, that leaves us to wonder — if the Phillies want to win the World Series in 2011, whose resurgence is going to mean more to the team? The next few slides will explain why Utley is going to be an absolute necessity if the Phillies' offense is going to get back on track this season.
Consistency
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Sometimes there is more to a player than his stats. The next few slides feature some of those things that "stat geeks" aren't exactly fond of — intangibles. These intangibles are things that a player brings to the table that can't be replicated or valued in stats. Chase Utley is a rare type of ball player and one that features many of these "intangibles."
No. 1—Consistency
Since his first full season in 2005, Utley has posted numbers that the Phillies can depend on. Over that span of time, he's posted a line of .297/.388/.520, with 162 home runs, while generating a whopping 42.6 WAR. As impressive as that is for a second baseman, it's the manner in which Utley collected those stats that make him valuable.
Over the course of his career, Utley has produced consistent numbers, but in 2010, he experienced a number of career lows. Whether this is a decline in his overall performance or a result of a nagging thumb injury is yet to be determined.
Excluding 2010, Utley has managed to post a batting average of at least .282, an on-base percentage of at least .376, a slugging percentage of at least .508, along with no less than 22 home runs in a single season.
In his injury-shortened 2010 season, Utley posted career lows in batting average (.275), slugging percentage (.445) and home runs (16).
Giving the Phillies' 2010 offense a quick review, it's not rocket science to figure out that the team is going to need a bit of consistency moving forward, and Utley provides strong, consistent numbers from a position that is normally a weak offensive spot.
Leadership
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Ah, the leadership intangible.
It's what makes Derek Jeter and Jason Varitek the captains of their respective teams. In the dugout, there are only so many things that a manager can control. Once a team takes the field, there has to be a single player who emerges as the leader; someone who delivers in a clutch situation and is an inspiration for the rest of the team.
For the Phillies, that man is Chase Utley.
Leadership isn't one of those advanced statistics that need proving. Every time Utley takes the field, all eyes are on him. In his absence, the Phillies still managed to go 26-17. With Utley in the lineup? 71-48.
Utley, not Howard, is the team's on-field general. Like an orchestra needs it's conductor, the Phillies will need their leader moving forward.
Baseball Know-How
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Chase Utley is one of the smartest baseball players in the game today, and that goes a long way in determining his value to the Phillies.
He does all the little things right, from taking a pitch in a specific count, to drawing a runner's attention by faking an incoming throw. On the bases, he doesn't avoid contact at second base to break up a double-play ball. Very rarely does the ninth inning end with a clean jersey for Utley.
Something like "baseball knowledge" doesn't appear to be a concrete reason why Utley is a necessity to the Phillies, but with a little reasoning, it's not hard to see why it is.
Utley knows how to help his team perform.
In the 2010 NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds, Utley batted against Reds' flamethrower Arolids Chapman. It appeared as though Chapman hit Utley with a pitch, but upon further review, it became evident that the ball hit the knob of Utley's bat. Though some will call it cheating, getting on base late in a ball game is smart baseball on Utley's behalf.
Later in the postseason, in Game Six of the NLCS against the San Francisco Giants, Utley actually was hit by a pitch, thrown by Giants' left hander, Jonathan Sanchez. The ball end up in Utley's hand as he jogged down the first-base line, and Utley flipped the ball back towards Sanchez with a bit of showmanship.
Some people will write it off as nothing, but could it have been an attempt to get the Phillies, and their fans, into the game?
Knowing the ins-and-outs of baseball go a long way in playing the game and doing it right.
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The Better All-Around Hitter
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There is absolutely no doubt about it. When it comes to power, Ryan Howard is one of the strongest men in professional baseball, and without him the Phillies are going to be in a jam offensively. However, when it comes down to it, Utley is the all-around, more polished hitter, and without him, the Phillies offense has a tendency to stall in its place.
Though he played in just 115 games last season and posted a number of career lows, as mentioned on a few of the previous slides, Utley still managed to post a slash line of .275/.387/.445, with 16 home runs and 65 RBI.
Comparing the numbers from Utley's down season to Howard's 2010 season, the gap between their offensive value isn't all that obvious. When you look over the course of Utley's career, however, it becomes apparent why he is such an important offensive cog.
In 1,006 games, Utley has posted a slash line of .293 /.380 /.514, with 177 home runs, 650 RBI and 96 stolen bases. Over the first eight seasons of his major league career, Utley has generated 44.2 Wins Above Replacement.
In the first eight seasons of their major league careers, Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar and Joe Morgan generated 33.7 WAR and 49.3 WAR, respectively. Not bad company.
It's simple to see why when Utley goes, the rest of the Phillies go as well.
The Man Gets On Base; Helps Howard Out
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Chase Utley is the prototypical three-hole hitter in a team's lineup, the hitter that has to be the "jack of all trades."
While each position in a lineup has it's preferred job qualities (for example: the leadoff hitter should be able to get on-base and have above-average speed), the three-hole hitter is supposed to do a little bit of everything. Hit for average and power, show the ability to get on base, drive runners home and run the bases well. Utley does at least two of those things exceptionally well.
The first is his outstanding ability to reach base.
In many places outside of Philadelphia, Utley is not a likeable player, mainly because of his "gritty" approach to playing the game, doing whatever it takes to reach base safely in front of power threats like Howard.
In 2008, his on-base percentage was one of his only stats that didn't see a recession. In 115 games, Utley's OBP was .387, the highest among Major League second baseman. Since the Phillies first division title in 2007, Utley has posted OBPs of .410, .380, .397 and .387, respectively.
A sort of trademark of Utley's game has been the ridiculous amount of times he has been hit by pitches. Over each of the last five seasons, Utley has finished among the top five hitters in baseball that were hit by pitches, and from 2007-09, he finished top of the league. Over the course of his career, he has been hit an incredible 125 times! Ouch!
Pair that with his plate vision and discipline and ability to draw walks, and it's not hard to understand why Charlie Manuel hits Utley in front of Howard and the rest of his power threats.
Base-Running Prowess
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The second of those job qualities expected out of a three-hole hitter that Chase Utley does exceptionally well is run the bases.
Please, don't misunderstand — Utley is by no means one of the fastest guys in baseball. He's never going to challenge for a stolen base title or impress an audience with his agility. However, combining a few of those traits that we've already discussed, like baseball knowledge and the ability to reach base, Utley runs the bases exceptionally well.
Though his speed isn't exactly unrivaled, Utley has learned much under the tutelage of now former first base coach, Davey Lopes. He times pitchers extremely well, and most of his 13 stolen bases from 2010 came in that fashion.
Over the course of his career, he has compiled 96 stolen bases off of unsuspecting pitchers. Like most good baserunners, Utley also goes from first to third well.
His thumb injury from 2010 may stop him from running as much as he'd like, as his coaches have encouraged him to slide feet first, unless a headfirst slide is unavoidable. However, the Phillies will need Utley on the bases running well, and I think it's safe to say that Howard doesn't even need a mention on this slide.
Flashing the Leather
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Ryan Howard made so much of an offensive splash in 2005 that the Phillies were comfortable trading future Hall of Fame first baseman, Jim Thome, to the Chicago White Sox. That said, however, he also made waves with his poor defense at first base. Though he has improved under the watch of Sam Perlozzo, Howard can't even hold a candle to the defense of Chase Utley.
Since making his Major League debut in 2003, Utley has never posted a negative Ultimate Zone Rating, and since becoming the everyday second baseman in 2005, has been well above average. Over the course of his career, he is the owner of a .982 fielding percentage and has collected 80.1 UZR at second base.
Though he's never won a Rawlings' Gold Glove Award, voted on by the managers and coaches of each league, he was the recipient of the Fielding Bible Award for the league's best second baseman, voted on by a panel of baseball experts including John Dewan, stat guru Bill James, Peter Gammons, Sports Illustrated's Joe Posnanski and ESPN's Rob Neyer.
The Fielding Bible Award takes a statistical approach to rewarding the league's top defense. Though not as prestigious as the Gold Glove, winning a Fielding Bible Award is no small feat either.
Postseason Lore
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Frankly, Chase Utley's career postseason stats aren't all that fantastic. In 41 career playoff games, he has posted a slash line of .243/.383/.480, with 10 home runs and 24 RBI. However, we must read between the lines to understand why Utley will forever be a postseason legend in the city of Philadelphia.
For starters, he was a member of the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies World Series club.
Following a season where he posted a slash line of .292/.380 /.535, with 33 home runs, Utley helped carry the Phillies' offense to a World Series title, doing what he did best—get on base. He posted an incredible BB percentage of 20.3 percent and scored 10 runs that would prove to be pivotal to the Phillies in the postseason.
To put the cherry on top, he delivered three clutch home runs before dropping the F-bomb during the World Series parade.
Even with a ring on his finger, the 2009 postseason sealed Utley's World Series greatness.
After another well-above-average regular season, Utley helped the Phillies retain the National League pennant, defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers on their way to New York. Though they would eventually lose to the Yankees, Utley still managed to get his name into the World Series MVP discussion.
In Game One of the 2009 World Series, Utley walked in his first at-bat, setting the record for most consecutive postseason games reaching base at 26. In his next two at-bats, Utley would hit home runs in the new Yankee Stadium, becoming the first left-handed hitter to hit two home runs in a World Series game since Yankees' legend, Babe Ruth. Utley would blast three more home runs, tying another Yankees' great, Reggie Jackson, for most home runs in a World Series with five.
Holder Of the Fans' Faith
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Okay, one more intangible.
Chase Utley is the type of player that will carry the fan base on his back and not fall over. When the going gets tough, Utley gets going. This intangible is a little something called "cluch hitting."
Though there are some advanced SABRmetric stats that try to put a value on clutch hitting (by measuring a player's success in high leverage situation versus his performance in lower leverage situations), being a clutch hitter is something that simply can not be valued.
All-in-all, it's not hard to understand why the fans would rather place their faith in Utley, as opposed to Howard. He can perform offensively in a number of ways, and is also just as clutch on the other side of the ball, and is able to save runs with well above average defense. We can almost multiply that sensation by two when a player performs postseason heroics, something Utley seems prone to.
When you are able to carry a fan base as large as the one in Philadelphia, a player is able to thrive off of the energy, and thrive Utley should.
The Comeback Kid
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Short and sweet, Chase Utley is poised for a strong rebound season in 2011.
Utley posted some of his worst career numbers in 2010—.275 /.387 /.445, with 16 home runs, and even those numbers aren't representative of a poor season.
Among qualifying second baseman, he finished eighth in batting average, first in on-base percentage, sixth in slugging percentage and seventh in home runs—not all that shabby for a man who tore a ligament in his thumb, had mid-season surgery and spent the rest of the season readjusting himself to the speed of the game.
Most of the rest of the league is ready to write Utley off, declaring that his best years are behind him, but not so fast. Stat projection extraordinaire, Bill James, sees a great season forthcoming from the second baseman, projecting a slash line of .288/.387 /.445, with 26 home runs, 94 RBI and 13 stolen bases.
With a fully healthy thumb, Utley could see a slash line higher than that. With a career batting average of .293, he could see his 2011 batting average surpass .290, and a 30 home run season is certainly not out of the question. Pair that with well above average defense, and Utley's value to the Phillies is irreplaceable.
With most people are ready to write him off as an injury riddled, aging second baseman, Utley has something to prove heading into 2011.
For the first time in a while, most of the Phillies have something to prove in 2011. After a disappointing 2010 season and preseason hype that has gone practically unrivaled in Philadelphia, it's going to take all hands on deck to win another World Series. If that's going to happen, the Phillies are going to need their silent leader to have a season like everyone is used to.
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