Mike Minor, Freddie Freeman and the 2011 NL Rookie of the Year Candidates
2010 was an incredible year for National League rookie debuts.
Buster Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia all put up Rookie of the Year-caliber performances, and they weren’t the only rookies to make a splash.
Guys like Starlin Castro, Chris Johnson, Mike Stanton, Tyler Colvin and John Axford made significant contributions to their respective teams—and I haven’t even mentioned Stephen Strasburg.
You’d think with all of the promotions, the 2011 rookie class would be dry. Not so.
Especially over in Atlanta.
Here is a look at the front runners and a few dark horse candidates for this season’s NL Rookie of the Year award.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
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Freddie Freeman is one of the few prospects who will likely begin 2011 with their big league clubs, making him an early contender for ROY.
The Braves really have no other option in place besides Freeman, and it will be extremely difficult for him to lose the starting gig this March.
Freeman stands 6’5” and will team up with Jason Heyward to form one of the league’s most feared duos here in a few years. However, unlike Heyward, Freeman is not a brute force like you would expect out of a 1B of that size.
His ISO (isolated power) numbers were never that high in the minors, and it certainly brings into question whether he can be an effective power hitter in the big leagues. His swing is compact and smooth through the zone, allowing him to drive the ball all over the yard. He’s going to be a double machine in the future.
Freeman may only knock the ball out of the yard a mere 15 to 20 times in 2011, but his solid contact rate and quick bat speed should allow him to post an average around .300 while knocking in 80-plus runs out of the 5-6-7 lineup slot.
Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
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Domonic Brown has the body and the tools to be an effective and contributing major league player the day he steps on the field at Citizens Bank Park.
In 2010, he was one of baseball’s only five-tool prospects and arguably the best player left in the minors. Brown truly has nothing left to prove in the Phillies’ farm system, having batted .327 with 20 HR and 68 RBI in AA and AAA last season. Simply put, he deserves the opportunity to start Opening Day 2011.
With Jayson Werth out of town, Brown is clearly the future replacement, but the Phillies are making him beat out Ben Francisco for the position this spring training.
Once he does make the roster however, Brown will be one of the team’s top run producers. With guys like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard batting in front of him whether Brown comes out of the fifth or sixth lineup spot, he has the potential to knock in 90 to 100 runs as early as this season.
Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta
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Our only starting pitcher on the list, Mike Minor has already made a splash on the big league map, pitching 40 innings for the Braves in 2010 at the end of his first professional season.
Despite having a rather typical pitch arsenal (fastball/plus change/curve), Minor dominated in 2010, posting K/9 rates around 10.00 to go with sub-3.00 BB/9 rates across three levels.
Last year was the first season that Minor really flashed a mid-90s fastball, and a large part of his success will hinge on whether he can keep up the velocity and strikeouts.
Entering spring training, Minor is a near lock for the fifth spot in the Braves' very solid rotation, and unless he implodes this March or April, he should be a roster lock for the season.
Atlanta has done incredible things with its pitchers over the last decade, and Minor could be the next homegrown prospect to really make a name for himself. Minor’s career ceiling is that of a No. 2 or No. 3 in a rotation, and he could pitch to that ability as early as this season.
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Brandon Belt, 1B/LF, San Francisco
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Brandon Belt gives the Giants strong hope at a Rookie of the Year repeat in 2011.
Easily the team’s top prospect, the 22-year-old Belt is going to be given the opportunity this spring to win the starting 1B or LF role outright. If he continues his hot streak that he’s been riding through four minor league levels and the Arizona Fall League, Belt could easily break camp with San Francisco.
Belt has a smooth, natural swing that has even drawn accolades from Giants great Will Clark, an incredible ability to lay off pitches, posting an elite BB percentage of 14.7, and has plenty of extra-base power. His combined stat line from 2010: .352/.455/.620 line with 23 homers and 112 RBI. That is why the Giants are excited.
I foresee the Giants handling Belt very similarly to the way they did Posey last season, starting him in the minors and calling him up midseason. Just as Posey did, though, Belt has the talent to make an instant impact and will be a Rookie of the Year candidate no matter when he comes up in 2011.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati
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When the Reds signed Aroldis Chapman last offseason, I’m sure many Reds fans were expecting the Cuban flamethrower to be the ace of their rotation as early as 2010. After struggling as a starter in AAA, the Reds chose to bring up Chapman late in the year as a relief pitcher, and boy did he impress.
Nobody came away from his outings disappointed. He even hit 105 mph on the radar gun.
Despite having A-plus stuff, the knock on Chapman is that he is a thrower, not a pitcher. Sure, he can light up the stadium gun, but he tires early, making him an ineffective starter. I expected the Reds to work with Chapman this offseason on becoming a better pitcher and slowly working his way into the rotation in 2011. Instead, it seems the plan is to leave him in the bullpen working as a lefty specialist.
Chapman’s Rookie of the Year candidacy lies solely in the opportunities he’s given either as a starter or as the Reds closer. If he sticks in the bullpen for middle relief, he’ll be quite the expensive lefty specialist and won't contend for R.O.Y.
Craig Kimbrel, CL, Atlanta
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Craig Kimbrel enters 2011 with a wide-open opportunity to take over the closer’s role in Atlanta with the offseason departure of Billy Wagner.
Like Wagner, Kimbrel relies on a mid-high 90s fastball and racks up a ton of strikeouts, posting a remarkable 14.4 K/9 rate through the minors. He even kept it up during his brief stint with the Braves late last season, striking out 40 over 20.2 innings (17.42 K/9).
As incredible as his strikeout potential is, Kimbrel is extremely erratic and suffers occasional implosions on the mound. Across the minors, Kimbrel has posted a 5.7 BB/9 rate, which throws red flags all over his candidacy as the team’s closer. Should Kimbrel take over the closer role, expect quite a few blown saves and big innings.
Regardless, Kimbrel does a great job keeping the ball in the yard, giving up just five homers over the last three seasons (172 innings), and should be the Braves’ top save getter in 2011. Kimbrel has the potential to be an elite closer in MLB, and 2011 will be his first step in that direction.
Dark Horse Candidates
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Danny Espinosa, 2B, Washington
Should begin the year as the Nationals’ Opening Day 2B, but I don’t expect him to be any more than an average middle infielder.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati
Alonso flashed an exceptional bat in the second half of 2010, hitting for power and average. He would mash in the majors too, but unless Reds 1B Joey Votto goes down with injury or Alonso becomes a corner outfielder, he won’t have the opportunity to prove himself at the major league level this season.
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