2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 5: Why Red Sox's Adrian Gonzalez May Hit 50 HRs

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Out of all the free agent signings and trade acquisitions over the offseason, Adrian Gonzalez stands to gain the most in terms of fantasy value.

Over the last three seasons, the left-handed slugger has hit 36, 40 and 31 home runs while playing half his games at Petco Park, one of the least homer-friendly stadiums in baseball. Fantasy managers have been praying for his release from Petco, and here’s why:

In five seasons with the Padres, Gonzalez posted very disturbing home/road splits.

• Home: 397 games, 185 runs, 57 HRs, 201 RBI, .266 batting average
• Away: 402 games, 279 runs, 104 HRs, 300 RBI, .307 batting average

Projected over 162 games, Gonzalez’s road splits (essentially every N.L. park not named Petco) yield 112 runs, 42 HRs and 121 RBI.

Fast forward to 2011. Take those road numbers, divide by two and add 81 games at Fenway Park batting fourth behind Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Dustin Pedroia and in front of Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. This all adds up to a career year for Gonzalez, who in his age-29 season, has a chance to blast 50 homers and post a career-best batting average in 2011.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	693	87	31	101	0	.298
3-year average	691	93	36	106	0	.285
2011 FBI Forecast	700	105	44	130	0	.313

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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