Life After Cam Newton: Breaking Down Every Game of Auburn's 2011 Schedule
When the 2010 season began, almost every respected sports writer had Auburn listed as the fourth best team in the SEC West, much less the conference. Florida was the heir-apparent to become the East champions yet again, and they were sure to face Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
Oh, what five months does to projection and history. After the trees were shaken and the leaves fell, the Auburn Tigers became the fourth different SEC team in five years to win the national championship. What came as a surprise to most solidified the belief of others that Auburn was in the right hands and headed in all the right directions.
With that being said, what does the new year bring for the Auburn Tigers? This past year we see 23 seniors and three juniors depart from a national championship team. A lot of leadership is what keeps teams on track, and the 2010 Tigers had a ton of leadership.
The question is how does Chizik and Co. fill the void? One game at a time are the most likely words from the head coach. So let’s follow that thinking and look ahead, one game at a time.
Utah State - 9/03/11
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This season opener is not set up to be a national showdown by any means. Auburn walks into the first game of the season with an easy stepping stone to guide them gently into a second week SEC clash with Mississippi State. What does that mean for the Tigers? It is a very easy game to overlook.
With a new quarterback and new offensive line in place, look for some stumbles to occur on the offensive side of the ball early. As wonderful as it would be for an inexperienced quarterback to have no growing pains behind a first-year line, that is not the reality we live in.
The good news for Auburn is that Utah State is reloading as well at some key areas on offense. State loses its starting quarterback and running back to graduation. The Auburn defense has some new shoes to fill at the linebacker position and in the secondary, but doing it against inexperienced Aggies, I would tip the hat to the Tigers.
Barrett Trotter should have a relatively good game and look for Auburn to lean on the running game early and often with the mix of Dyer and McCalebb.
Mississippi State – 9/10/11
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This could be a huge season changer for both of these teams early in 2011. Many point to the Mississippi State game of 2010 as the turning point of Auburn’s season. This game against the Bulldogs comes at a crucial point and lands in the home game slot. Again, Auburn is breaking in Barrett Trotter who threw all of nine passes in ’10, so look for Auburn to try and keep this game on the ground.
Mississippi State is returning Chris Relf and Tyler Russell at the quarterback position and returns the base of the offense. State loses a tackle from the offensive line but little else. On the defensive side, the Bulldogs do return the majority of the defense but loses touted end Pernell McPhee. The linebacker corps is going to have to reload, but there is talent ready to step up. State has a balance of experience and talent that could be dangerous in 2011.
There are a few factors that will make a difference in this game. If Auburn can lead with its rushing attack and lean on the backfield, Trotter will see the play action open up on the perimeter. Auburn may lack experience on the outside but speed and athleticism is abundant. If Mississippi State can stuff the inside run, Auburn may have some issues. These few factors will determine the winner.
At Clemson – 9/17/11
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The Tigers from Clemson will have an entirely different look under the direction of soon-to-be sophomore Tajh Boyd on offense in 2011. Boyd will have the chance to have a great season with a veteran line and a very talented surrounding cast. The defense will have losses at the corner position to graduation, and power rusher Da’Quan Bowers is leaving for the draft.
Those holes will be tough to fill, but Clemson should like its chances for a run at the ACC in ’11. Auburn may not have a thing to do with that title hope, but last year’s loss has to sting a bit. Clemson gets Auburn at home this season, and if Tajh Boyd can develop over the first couple of weeks, the Tigers from the Carolina’s may have their way in this early season contest.
Despite the factors leaning in favor of Clemson, the Tigers have had issues in the past finishing games. Especially games with a lot of expectations and this game should be one of the better early season matchups. Look for Auburn to have a big game on the ground, but through the air is where Auburn will earn their stripes in this game.
If Barrett Trotter can have a break out game against Clemson, Howard’s Rock won’t do too much to save the home team. Without Trotter and his arm showing out, the Tigers of Clemson will prevail.
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Florida Atlantic – 9/24/11
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The Owls bring an experienced backfield to Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2011. Returning starting quarterback Jeff Van Camp and starting running back Alfred Morris is a plus for Florida Atlantic, but it is sure to be a hostile environment the fourth week in September. Van Camp was just shy of 2,500 yards through the air this season and Morris was just 72 shy of 1,000.
The Owls had a rough season with only five wins in 2010, but with the experience that is returning should be able to improve the win column. Unfortunately, don’t expect that to happen in Auburn on the 24th.
Auburn will look to balance the offense as much as possible and feed the Owls a consistent dose of running and passing. Look for Auburn to have a break out game in this one and really open up the playbook. Auburn should hit its stride for the first time in this game.
At South Carolina – 10/1/11
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South Carolina made a run at the conference title in 2010 and looking at the depth that is returning, the Gamecocks have a legitimate chance at returning to Atlanta in December. The East should be an improved division this coming year, but Carolina brings a lot offensively to the table. Tori Gurley is the major loss on offense has he surprisingly left early for the draft.
On the defensive side of the ball, Carolina will need to replace some linebackers and a defensive playmaker in Cliff Mathews, but the Gamecocks will be stout. This is Auburn’s second road game of the season, and it most likely will be the toughest. With its second road trip to the Carolinas in just two weeks, Auburn will have to stay focused and healthy to come out of this week successful.
Auburn will be bringing a newfound experience to this game and will look to control the front line. With a new defensive front being exposed early in 2010, there is some experience heading into 2011. They will get their toughest test against a veteran line and the likes of upcoming sophomore Marcus Lattimore. Whoever wins the battle up front will win this game.
Garcia has been a game-changer through the air in the past and may improve as his senior campaign enters full swing, but he also has choked often in the past. How he performs may determine this game's winner or loser.
At Arkansas – 10/8/11
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This game is a huge turning point for these two teams. In 2010 it led Auburn to the driver’s seat of the West. Could this season’s game have the same implications? Most likely it will. Arkansas is returning a wealth of talent, and despite losing Ryan Mallett to the draft, Tyler Wilson should be able to step in and not lose a step.
The big kicker for Arkansas is the same for the Auburn Tigers, the offensive line is depleted. Arkansas loses three starters from the offensive front in 2011. Who has the more developed line in this game likely gets the nod.
With both teams breaking in new quarterbacks and returning veterans in the backfield, they may both lean again to the rushing attack to balance the pass rush. Whoever has the more dominant pass rush and the better rushing attack should win this game. Arkansas returns the bulk of its defense, so the fall off should be slim if any at all on that side of the ball for the Razorbacks.
Line control and the rushing game will lead to the winner. Quarterback play should be just good enough to not kill either team. Again, both first year starters so the expectations are very low.
Florida – 10/15/11
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This game a year ago looked like the most difficult task for 2011. What a difference a year makes on the college football scene. With Urban Meyer stepping down at Florida and a new generation of changes to come, Florida doesn’t look to be the juggernaut of old.
Florida does return John Brantley and a host of others on the offensive side of the day. The bulk of the line is going away this season, but the playmakers are going to be there. The defensive front for Florida will have a new look to it as well, as it will hope to stymie the Auburn rushing attack.
This game has brought a good bit of last minute win history to the ESPN family of networks lately, but how this game folds out should be interesting. Assuming that the pro formation that Muschamp plans to bring to Gainesville will be a better fit for Brantley, the Florida offense should regroup and improve in ’11. However, changing philosophies typically has some growing pains.
How Auburn and Florida adapt this season to new personnel will be the kicker in this mid-season showdown. For this game to be squashed as the third in a series of four tough SEC games, Auburn may hit the wall here. Depending on Auburn’s resilience at the midpoint, this game could be the first slip up of the season for the Tigers.
At LSU – 10/22/11
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LSU is always a huge game. Huge. There has been an earthquake registered because of the noise at Auburn versus LSU showdown in the past. This game could be another determining factor into who plays for the SEC championship in ’11. LSU will take a chip on their shoulder into this game after losing to Auburn this past season.
How Trotter performs in this game will determine a lot for Auburn. Dyer and McCalebb will no doubt put up some numbers, but the Auburn quarterback play should be a huge determining factor against LSU. Despite LSU returning co-starters Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson, Zack Mettenberger will most likely be the starter.
Mettenberger is a guy who had Aaron Murray on the ropes at Georgia before running into some off-the-field issues in the offseason. Mettenberger took his talents to JUCO and has now found a new home in Baton Rouge. This could turn out to be a battle of quarterback play.
LSU is losing both its interior defensive line starters and two of its defensive backfield stars including Patrick Peterson. Look for both teams to find their respective SEC identities in this game as the winner will most likely be in the driver’s seat for the West.
Ole Miss – 10/29/11
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The new Black Bears of Mississippi are staring down the barrel of a huge rebuilding year. Eight seniors are departing from the Ole Miss defense and not a lot of experience is returning on that side of ball. A defense that already had some issues has another long year ahead of them.
The offense had some of its own growing pains last year and loses its one bright spot in Jeremiah Masoli to graduation. Nathan Stanley was the initial starter for Mississippi and was the second-string all season. He should step in and have a decent season behind a newly experienced line.
The Ole Miss game has been a close one and a heartbreaker in the past for both teams, but this year would assume to be in Auburn’s favor yet again. Auburn should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this game and win a home game before a much-needed non-conference game against Samford. Ole Miss seems to be about another year away from making many waves in the West.
Samford – 11/5/11
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The first break in as many games comes with this non-conference test. Samford is a respectable team in the lower division of football, but there is not a very good chance for Samford to pull this game off. Auburn should go into this game to get healthy and to work on details before heading into Amen Corner for the end of the season.
Again, Samford is a respectable squad, but Auburn should take this one home early and get ready for the Georgia Bulldogs the following week.
At Georgia – 11/12/11
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Georgia started 2010 with a horrible record. A four-loss start was not what Mark Richt was looking for. A.J. Green returned and Georgia picked up their play. Unfortunately for Georgia, Green elected to enter the NFL Draft. Marlon Brown and Tavarres King do return on the outside for the Bulldogs, and it always helps to have experience on the perimeter.
Aaron Murray is set to return and build on his freshman season. Murray has one more year in the system and a full year of experience. The most difficult task for Georgia is replacing three of four starters at the linebacker position. The corners and safeties do return some depth, but the middle of the line and linebacker corps is where Georgia likes to keep games defensively.
If Georgia can build enough experience throughout the season to get some standout linebackers and if Aaron Murray can expand on his freshman campaign, Georgia can be very dangerous next year. This could be a very good game and yet another game that makes for the pageantry of the oldest rivalry in the South.
Whichever team develops depth on defense early and produces in the trenches on offense walks off with the win.
Alabama – 11/26/11
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The past two seasons this game has gone down to a photo finish. Maybe not until the last second of the clock, but it sure did seem like it. Alabama has to reload on the offensive side of the ball almost as much as the Tigers in ’11 with the focus primarily falling onto the quarterback position.
A.J. McCarron had a few opportunities this past year to see some early playing time, but don’t be surprised to see Phillip Sims make a push into the playing rotation. The running back position returns Trent Richardson who hasn’t had the chance to show his skills as the every down back for the Tide yet. His resilience will determine a lot of the Tide’s success as Alabama’s ability to run the ball will divert attention from the lack of experience at the quarterback.
The Alabama defense returns a host of playmakers and doesn’t look to have a huge drop off on that side of the ball. If anything, the secondary should be much improved after facing a trial by fire this past season. Will Auburn be able to run the ball against Bama? Will Bama be able to use its experience on the offensive front to establish its running game?
A number of different scenarios are bound to play out in another big game to finish the season. This Iron Bowl should produce another SEC West champion and SEC championship game player. This game may also have national implications much like the past two years, but Auburn does have the benefit of playing at home.
Final Thoughts
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Looking at this coming season, Auburn does have some holes to fill on both sides of the ball as some major playmakers have left the team for the draft. How Chizik and this staff prepare and rebuild this team should be a telling tale for the future. If 2009 was any indication of the capabilities of this staff, Auburn fans should feel safe to say this should be another big season on the Plains.
Anytime a team finishes undefeated, the next season is sure to have some downs. But if the quarterback play and offensive line play shapes up early in games against Mississippi State and Clemson, Auburn could have another special season. If this team is slower to develop, an eight-win season and mid-tier bowl is in the future.
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