2011 NFL Draft: Why the Next Adrian Peterson Isn't in the First Round

The NFL Draft is a special breed of study. “Gurus” or “experts” like to say that it is an “inexact science”, and sure that may be true, but that is just a way for them acknowledge that everyone makes mistakes and not everything can be perfectly predicted. There are, however, trends that we, and NFL franchises, can follow to success.

Success in the NFL is predicated on winning Super Bowls; that much is simple. Moral victories do not exist in a sport that puts such a heavy premium on winning. As we get ready to crown another Super Bowl Champion in a few short weeks, and the NFL Draft hype continues to gather steam, it brings me back to the notion that there is something linking these successful franchises that continue to win football games despite the consistency of player movement that is now so common in the National Football League.

Using the last ten seasons as a sample size, let us take a look at the drafting trends of successful franchises at the running back position; a position I believe you can find successful players at in almost any stage of the Draft/Free Agency beyond the first round.

Ironically enough we start with one of the three first round draft picks to win a Super Bowl in the past decade while being the starter/leading carrier for his team. Running back Jamal Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens was selected No. 5 overall out of Tennessee in the 2000 NFL Draft. Accompanying him in the first round at the running back position that year were Thomas Jones of Virginia (No. 7 – Arizona), Ron Dayne of Wisconsin (No. 11 – NYG), Shaun Alexander of Alabama (No. 19 – Seattle), and Trung Canidate of Arizona (No. 31 – St. Louis).

In Lewis’ rookie season he won his only Super Bowl and retired from football one year ago. Jones lost in Super Bowl XLI and is a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Dayne lost in Super Bowl XXXV and has not played football since the 2007 season. Alexander lost in Super Bowl XL and has not played football since the 2008 season. Trung Canidate lasted only four seasons in the NFL; he never played in a Super Bowl.

The second is Antowain Smith who won two Super Bowls with the New England Patriots in 2002 and 2004. He was drafted in the first round of the 1997 Draft by the Buffalo Bills, didn’t pan out for their franchise, but found new life at the hands of Bill Belichick, what a shocking revelation.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in 2003; Michael Pittman, a fourth round pick in 1998, was their starting running back. In 2005 the New England Patriots won their third Super Bowl in four years and Corey Dillon, a second round pick in 1997 of the Cincinnati Bengals, was their leading rusher.

2006 marked the Pittsburgh Steelers first Super Bowl in 26 years and their starting running back, Willie Parker, was an undrafted free agent out of North Carolina. They also used Jerome Bettis in short-yardage situations and he was a first round pick in 1993, but he was not the starter and Parker out-rushed him by almost 1,000 yards; Parker was the listed starter and leading rusher for the team in the Super Bowl/postseason as well.

The Indianapolis Colts won the Super Bowl in 2007 with first round rookie Joseph Addai on the roster. He led the Colts in rushing during the regular season, but did not start a single game. In the postseason, according to NFL.com, he was listed as the starter. He was a major contributor to the Colts’ run to a Super Bowl Championship and for all intents and purposes we should consider him as the lead back despite Dominic Rhodes starting throughout the regular season and being the leading carrier in the Super Bowl victory; Rhodes was an undrafted free agent.

In 2008, the New York Giants won the Super Bowl with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs as a tandem in the backfield. Jacobs was a fourth round pick out of Southern Illinois in 2005 and Bradshaw was a seventh round rookie out of Marshall.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won again in 2009 and Willie Parker was still their starter. The Steelers did, however, draft Rashard Mendenhall in the first round that year, but he was on the injured reserve list; he played in only four games that season.

The 2010 Super Bowl, won by the New Orleans Saints, brings up an interesting player, Reggie Bush. He has never been his team’s leading carrier or the starter at the running back position. He is an interesting player to judge based on the fact that he was a contributor with 27 touches and two touchdowns during their postseason run to the title, but he is a role player, not a starter.

Over the past decade, 32 different running backs have been taken in the first round; three of them have won Super Bowls. While the NFL brass does not go crazy for prospects at the position; there is visual evidence indicating that winning teams and successful runners can be found almost anywhere else. Super Bowl Champion running backs this decade vary in their league entry from undrafted rookies to second round picks.

The running back position alone, depending on what you consider success, only has a one player of importance that has been drafted in the first round this decade; LaDainian Tomlinson. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson still have to maintain their ability and Steven Jackson has been stuck on a bad team for a long time.

Now do not get me wrong, there are players who’s talents warrant first round prospect grades, but as franchise looking to win, what is the point of drafting a player at that position with such a low rate of success?

New England did not even draft Antowain Smith themselves; they signed him in free agency. Take him away and now we are down to only two this decade. Add in the fact that two teams alone take up five Championships (Pittsburgh and New England), they seem to be doing something right.

If your franchise is looking to be successful in the near future, the answer does not lie at the running back position in the first round, it simply is not necessary. As the 2011 NFL Draft inches closer, keep your eyes on the running back prospects; no championship-caliber team should consider drafting them.