Australian Open 2011: Previewing Every First-Round Match in Women's Draw

The Australian Open gets underway tomorrow with world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki looking to build on a successful 2010 at the first Grand Slam of the new decade.

Venus Williams, Vera Zvonareva, Kim Clijsters and Co. will all have their sights on the trophy, although home-town favorite Sam Stosur will also have a lot of support when she gets her tournament underway.

Here’s a detailed analysis of the first-round, with a look at the qualifiers and where they will fit into the draw.

Caroline Wozniacki's Quarter

Caroline Wozniacki (1) vs. Gisela Dulko

Dulko is a fine doubles player and an excellent volleyer of the ball, but she has nowhere near the weapons from the back of the court to deal with the world No. 1. Dulko, who turned 25 last month, has lost four of her five matches since going out in the third round of the US Open. Wozniacki hasn’t been past the fourth round in Melbourne, but there’s no way she’s going to lose here in her opener.

Tamira Paszek vs. Vania King

This should be an intriguing match against two similar players, neither of whom have been past the second round here before.  King, though, probably has the edge, and she got some solid time on court under her belt at the qualifying tournament in Brisbane. Paszek, two weeks removed from being a teenager, will need to show the same kind of form she displayed in Quebec City last September to get past King. Either way, the winner is making an second-round exit.

Lucie Hradecka vs. Alberta Brianti

The Czech 25-year-old pushed fan favorite Sam Stosur to a first-set tiebreaker in Brisbane last week before going out in straight sets, but she looked good in qualifying and will give the higher-ranked Italian a run for her money. The pair has met twice before, both in ’08, with Hradecka winning both meetings. Brianti has shown solid growth at Melbourne, but has otherwise been pretty disappointing at the Slams. Expect Hradecka to move into round two.

Angelique Kerber vs. Dominika Cibulkova (29)

Kerber dumped Aravane Rezai out last year before taking No. 3 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova all the way in the third round. Without the need to go through qualifying this time around, expect Kerber to bump another seed early on. Cibulkova will go into the match as the favorite, but she has had least success down under than anywhere else. She has lost out in the first round in two of the last three years, and I’m guessing it will be four in five.

Yanina Wickmayer (21) vs. Jarmila Groth

Groth was born in Bratislava, but has taken up residence in Melbourne, making her an instant hit when things get underway today. She will be making her sixth appearance at the Australian Open, but she will need more than a slice of luck to go her way if she is to make it to the second round for the first time. I have been impressed with the Belgian Wickmayer for the last 18 months and she looked pretty good in New Zealand at the start of the year. Groth has talent, but a straight-sets victory should be on the cards for the No. 21 seed.

Polona Hercog vs. Anastasia Sevastova

On paper this is about as evenly-matched as they come. Hercog is ranked No. 47 in the world and just turned 20 years old. Sevastova is No. 45 and will turn 21 in April. Both players have average baseline games dictated by medium-paced right-handed forehands, both turned pro in 2006 and both will be making their third appearance in Melbourne. It’s going to be close, but Hercog is better at the net and in a match that could essentially be determined by a coin flip, any advantage could be decisive. I’m going for Hercog in three.

Tathiana Garbin vs. Marion Bartoli (15)

Rounding out the top half of Wozniacki’s quarter is Bartoli, who shouldn’t have too many problems with the 34-year-old Italian.  Garbin failed to make it past the third round in all but one (Sofia) tournaments last year, and her success in Melbourne has been limited to a pair of third-round appearances in 12 years. Bartoli has been a force to be reckoned with since 2007, but other than a quarterfinal loss here two years ago, she hasn’t really taken that next step towards superstardom. 2011 won’t be her year either, but a third-round run should be the minimum expectation this year. Garbin knocked Bartoli out at the French Open the last time they met. Expect the tables returned on a more favorable surface.

Alison Riske vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova (23)

Riske is ranked outside the top 100 and there’s little chance she’ll make an impression against Kuznetsova. The 20-year-old American made her Slam debut last summer at Wimbledon, but she will need more than just an aggressive approach to get past the No. 23 seed. Riske will need everything to go right against the Russian, like the run she had in Birmingham last year before earning a wildcard spot at SW19. Kuznetsova can’t toss in a performance like she did against the likes of Ekaterina Makarova and Regina Kulikova last year, but this should be as comfortable as it gets.

Tsvetana Pironkova (32) vs. Pauline Parmentier

Pironkova backed into a seed by virtue of Serena Williams pulling out of the tournament and she has been rewarded handsomely with a very winnable opening match against the French world No. 103. Some say Pironkova came of age at Wimbledon in 2010, where she beat Marion Bartoli and Venus Williams in straight sets before going out in three sets to No. 2 seed Vera Zvonareva, and she’ll need to recapture that form after  a fairly low-key end to the season where she failed to win a second-round match in the final four months. By contrast, the Frenchwoman only dropped one set en route to the Poitiers final last October, which should give her some confidence. If this was on clay, it would be pretty close to call, but as it is, Pironkova wins in straight sets.

Timea Bacsinszky vs. Monica Niculescu

The Swiss world No. 50 is maybe the slight favorite on paper, but it could go either way. Both are accomplished doubles players and neither has made a run to the second week of a Grand Slam. Both women went out of the US Open in the first round to seeded players last year before finishing the season pretty strong, so flip a coin. Niculescu has won three of their last four meetings, including a straight sets victory in Prague last year where Bacsinszky was the No. 3 seed, and I’m going for the more experienced Romanian to advance.

Rebecca Marino vs. Junri Namigata

Neither AO debutant can be unhappy with this draw after avoiding a big name or seed. Both will feel pretty confident about a place in the second round and both will be looking forward to a likely meeting with No. 6 seed Francesca Schiavone. Namigata won a pair of ITF events last season and the Canadian won three consecutive tournaments after a solid showing against Venus Williams at Flushing Meadows the previous month. Few people will care about the outcome of this one, but I’m going to go with Namigata’s experience to win the day.

Arantxa Parra Santonja vs. Fransesca Schiavone (6)

We know the deal with Schiavone, but what about the Spaniard? The 28-year-old is ranked 66th in the world and had her best results of 2010 at Bogota and Estoril, a pair of clay court Tour events. Schiavone will have no trouble advancing to round two and really should be able to cruise into a potential fourth-round match with Henin at the end of the first week. After success at Roland Garros, Schiavone bounced back from a shock Wimbledon exit with a run to the quarters at the US Open, and there’s no reason to expect anything less here.

Venus Williams' Quarter

Venus Williams (4) vs. Sara Errani

Williams should have little trouble advancing to the second round, although both players may feel a little unfortunate. Williams, the world No. 5 and fourth seed in Melbourne, obviously avoided anyone else from the top 32, but drew one of the better non-seeded players in the field. Errani, who made it to the third round in each of the past two years, may have fancied her chances of a good run in the tournament had it not been for one of the worst first-round draws possible. The former world No. 31 will look at this match as a motivation to get back into the upper echelons of the sport and avoid players like Venus on Day One.

Sandra Zahlavova vs. Renata Voracova

Two relatively low-profile Czech Republic women will battle for a potential second-round clash with Williams. Clay-court specialist Voracova maybe has the slight edge here, but neither one has came close to cracking the top 50, and it was only last year that they broke into the top 80. Zahlavova leads the head-to-head matchup 4-1, although her countrywoman was victorious when they met last in 2010. I’m going for a repeat performance in Melbourne, backing 27-year-old Voracova who didn’t look massively outclassed against Maria Sharapova in Auckland at the start of the year.

Jill Craybas vs. Andrea Petkovic (30)

Petkovic is right on the cusp of the world’s top 32, but she was close enough to earn herself a seed in the first Slam of 2011. Her reward is an opening match with American veteran Craybas, who is teetering on the brink of the top 100. Craybas hasn’t really been a feared competitor for four or five years now and, at 37, isn’t expected to give the tall German too many problems. Petkovic looked impressive against Alexandra Dulgheru and Marion Bartoil, both seeds in Melbourne, in Brisbane, and she seems to be in good early season form. A straight sets victory four and two is imminent.

Kaia Kanepi (20) vs. Magdalena Rybarikova

Rybarikova has fallen quickly from grace, but don’t let her 104 ranking fool you…she can still play. The Slovakian was on the verge of being a top 32 player just 18 months ago, but a poor 2010 culminating in back to back first-round exits at Wimbledon and the US Open threw her ranking into freefall. Kanepi is almost a mirror opposite, climbing inside the top 20 with runs into the second week of the final two Slams of 2010, and now she looks to build upon her good form with a strong showing in Oz. Estonian Kanepi should be able to out-blast Rybarikova without too much hassle.

Julia Goerges vs. Edina Gallovits-Hall

The 22-year-old German played some of the best tennis in her young career, and 2011 will start in a promising way, too. While her game is more suited to the European clay court season, she still has enough weapons to cause mid-tier players problems on fast courts, as shown when she went through Carla Suarez Navarro, Ana Ivancovic and Angelique Kerber in succession in Luxembourg last fall. Gallovits-Hall isn’t good enough to hang with up-and-coming Goerges and she won’t be improving on her second-round performances of ’08 or ’09.

Elena Vesnina vs. Virginie Razzano

It wasn’t too long ago that these two women would have been seeded at a Major, but both have seen a drop in form over the last year. While Vesnina was unable to retain the top-30 spot she earned in 2009, Razzano fell outside the top 100 for the first time in a decade following a spate of injuries. She withdrew from seven tournaments in 2010, (including Madrid and Wimbledon), with hip and right foot and ankle problems, and although she got five sets of tennis under her belt in Brisbane, it may only be a matter of time before the issues resurface. A fully-healthy Razzano makes this very close, but the Russian will have a comfortable victory.

Tamarine Tanasugarn vs. Maria Sharapova (14)

If you discount Tanasugarn’s quarterfinal run at Wimbledon, the Thai star hasn’t been into the second week of a Grand Slam in seven years. Her career can’t have too many more years left, and her best years are definitely now behind her, despite that mini renaissance we saw a couple years back. Sharapova isn’t the player she once was, but she knows how to win in Melbourne and her fourth-round showings at Wimbledon and the US Open show she is getting back onto the right track. With those right shoulder injuries a thing of the past, expect a better showing this time around. She went out in the first round to fellow glamour girl Maria Kirilenko last year and missed the event in 2009, so expect big things this time around. A fourth-round matchup with Venus would be fantastic.

Na Li (9) vs. Sofia Arvidsson

A first-round exit at the US Open spoilt a near otherwise perfect 2010 for Li who put together a solid season from start to finish and became the first Chinese player ever inside the top 10. I’m not expecting another run to the semifinals this time around, but after beating three seeds in a row and pushing the No. 1 seed to a pair of tiebreakers in the fourth, it’s not out of the realms of possibility. She ditched Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams in the space of three days this time last year so Arvidsson has a tough battle ahead of her. She can look to Li throwing away the lead against Kateryna Bondarenko in Flushing for inspiration, but Li should sail through against the Swede.

Evgeniya Rodina vs. Olivia Rogowska

Melbourne teenager Olivia Rogowska defeated Jelena Dokic to win the Australian Open wild card play-off at Melbourne Park this week, rallying from a disappointing opening set to win 1-6, 7-6, 6-3. Ranked 259 in the world, the Ozzie has a favorable draw against Russian Rodina who is outside the top 100 herself. Rodina, some 152 places higher in the ranking, would be the easy choice, but with hometown support, my heart wants to say the youngster. She went out to the No. 31 seed Alona Bondarenko two years ago and to world No. 44 Sorana Cirstea in three sets 12 months back. This will be the time she makes it to the second round.

Barbora Zahlavova Strycova vs. Aravane Rezai (17)

Frenchwoman Rezai is making her fifth appearance in Melbourne as she looks to make the second week of a grand slam for the first time in 20 attempts. She has shown solid growth over the last two seasons and should be comfortable against the lower-ranked Czech who has failed to advance past the second round in seven tries. Without a doubles partner to fall back on, Zahlavova Strycova will struggle to make much of an impression.

Daniela Hantuchova (28) vs. Regina Kulikova

The former world No. 5 continues to hang around the top 32 and that has rewarded her with an opening match with fellow Russian Kulikova, ranked 113. Predominantly a grass-courter, Kulikova has failed to make much of an impression on hard courts, and she will need to bring a much more solid baseline game if she is to have any chance. Hantuchova has the game to cause a couple upsets later in the draw, but she is unlikely to make any real noise against the big hitters. She should sail through here, but she’ll likely get demolished by Victoria Azarenka in round three.

Karolina Sprem vs. Chanelle Scheepers

Scheepers made a bit of a name for herself on the clay of Roland Garros last year when she went through qualifying, avoided the seeds in the main draw and got through to the last 16, but the draw this time around hasn’t been as kind. Still, things could be worse than an opener against 26-year-old Sprem, who never really lived up to the hype. Sprem has not been past the second round in a Slam since 2006 and this contest could go either way. I’ll have to go with Sprem based on experience, but I’m as uncertain with this pick as any other.

Patricia Mayr-Achleitner vs. Andrea Hlavackova

Another coin flip here between two women separated by just one spot in the WTA rankings. The Czech blonde is more known for playing doubles than singles while the Austrian 24-year-old might be recognized by some for getting to the second round of Wimbledon and the French in 2009. I don’t know too much about either woman, but I’ll take Hlavackova, simply because she’s a better hard-court player. If we were at Roland Garros, I’d go for Mayr-Alcheitner in straight sets, but we’re not. I guess it doesn’t matter too much, as either one could get double-bageled in round two.

Kim Clijsters' Quarter

Jelena Jankovic (7) vs. Alla Kudryavtseva

Serbian Jankovic headlines the top half of the third quarter, and there’s a good chance that she will advance to a fourth-round matchup with Kim Clijsters. She is a solid all-court threat, and while she is more at home on clay, she is very efficient on the asphalt, where she has made it to the fourth round in three of the last four years. While Jankovic is the overwhelming favorite here, the 23-year-old Russian has a slim chance of an upset, especially after watching her push world No. 21 to a deciding set in Brisbane. She finished the year fairly strong with back-to-back Tour finals in Asia and if she ever had a chance for an upset it’s now. Still, I’m picking Jankovic in straight sets.

Kateryna Bondarenko vs. Shuai Peng

Once a top-30 player, Bondarenko is on the verge of slipping back out of the top 100 again after knee problems put her on the shelf for three months. Peng is the higher seed coming into the event and she will be buoyed by strong performances against a pair of top players in the form of Svetlana Kuznetsova and Yanina Wickmayer in Auckland. A fully-fit Bondarenko can handle Peng, but the Chinawoman is playing well and I think that will carry her into round two.

Caroline Garcia vs. Varvara Lepchenko

One of the youngest players in either the mens’ or womens’ draw, 17-year-old Garcia will make her Grand Slam debut against American world No. 75 Lepchenko. Garcia is ranked 275 in the world, having jumped more than 400 places in her first year on tour, and she will need to play the kind of tennis that saw her upset Barbora Zahlavova Strycova on the French hard courts of Poitiers in an ITF event last October. She is horribly overmatched here, but I hope she goes out and enjoys the experience. I see Lepchenko advancing in straights sets, 6-4, 6-4.

Ayumi Morita vs. Alexandra Dulgheru (27)

Dulgheru has shot up the charts since 2008, making massive strides in the game and establishing herself as a worthy seed. She reached the third round of the last third Slams, and there’s more than a 50-50 chance that she’ll do the same in Melbourne. Morita, who hits double-handed from both wings, doesn’t have the power to out-hit the Romanian and she has struggled with mid-tier players in the past, going 1-10 against women in the top 50 in 2010. Dulgheru doesn’t have to worry about an upset here in round one.

Kimiko Date-Krumm vs. Agnieszka Radwanska (12)

Radwanska is good enough to be back inside the top 10 and 2011 could see that become a reality. Despite never being past the quarterfinals of any Grand Slam, the older Radwanska sister is capable of holding her own with any player on tour. As for Date-Krumm, she showed incredible sparkle at times last year after missing a big chunk of the season with ankle and calf injuries. In defeating Dinara Safina, she proved she still has what it takes to compete at the highest level, even if the victory was an exception rather than the norm. It will be the first time these players have met, but this isn’t the mid-90s anymore and 40-year-old Tour matricarch Date-Krumm will be outplayed. I see the No. 12 seed making it through.

Nadia Petrova (13) vs. Ksenua Pervak

Left-handed Russian teen Pervak cracked the top 100 in 2010 and she made a decent start in Brisbane earlier this month, highlighted by demolishing grumpy compatriot Anna Chakvetadze and pushing Petra Kvitova in the round of 16. While she is an average ITF player, she has never really shown too much flair in the bigger Tour events, although this will come in time. Unfortunately, she’s out of her league against Petrova, who could quite easily repeat her quarterfinals appearance from a year ago.

Alicia Molik vs. Roberta Vinci

With her flowing blonde hair, bright eyes, legs up to her armpits and infectious smile, it’s no surprise that 29-year-old Melbourne resident Alicia Molik is a fan favorite at the Australian Open. Her career  year in 2005 was marred by a nasty ear infection and she never really got back to the form that led her to a quarterfinal run. Still, with that trademark one-handed backhand, fans will be happy to see Molik back in action at home once more. Her chances are okay, but she looked vulnerable for large parts of 2010 and pocket dynamo Vinci should be able to see off both the Aussie and the partisan crowd.

Ekaterina Makarova vs. Ana Ivanovic (19)

Former world No. 1 Ivanovic is the obvious favorite going into this one, but if any of the bigger-named seeds are going to go out on the first day, it could well be her. Don’t get me wrong, I love the leggy Serbian, but her game isn’t really made for this surface. With the exception of a great run three years ago, she has gone out in the second round twice and the third round the remaining three times. Makarova isn’t exactly a Grand Slam wizard, but she has been consistent over the last three years and her game matches up well with that of Ivanovic. I see her causing an early upset, beating the No. 19 seed in three sets.

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (26) vs. Greta Arn

Arn is up to a career-best No. 58 in the world and she’ll be making her first appearance in Melbourne in eight years after climbing back inside the top 100. She had solid tournaments on the clay of Warsaw and the grass of Wimbledon, but she failed to make even longer strides after running into buzzsaw Kim Clijsters in the first round at the US Open. Martinez Sanchez’s slice and dice game will be neutralized by the court and Arn has more than a puncher’s chance against the leftie. I’m going to pick Arn here, because she’s clearly in a rare vein of form having surprised Sofia Arvidsson, Maria Sharapova, Julia Goerges and Yanina Wickmayer in a row in Auckland.

Christina McHale vs. Carla Suarez-Navarro

Suarez-Navarro may have dropped out of the top 30, but she will have no trouble dispatching American McHale in round one. The Spaniard made it to the third round last year after a run to the quarters in ’09, and despite poor performances to round out the season, she should be okay in Melbourne. McHale, ranked 109, will be making her fifth Grand Slam appearance – her second at the Australian Open—but I fear that even with her aggressive baseline gameplan mentality and solid forehand, Suarez-Navarro will have too much for her.

Dinara Safina vs. Kim Clijsters (3)

One of the most interesting first-round matchups comes at the bottom of the third quarter where a pair of former No. 1s will battle for a place in round two. Safina, who has reached three Grand Slam finals in the last three years, will go into the contest as the underdog against the No. 3 seed who is coming of her third US Open title and full of confidence. Both women know what it takes to win and this is the highlight of the opening few days on the women’s side of the draw. Safina was a consistent top-20 player before her back injury last year and she will need every bit of her poise and experience to dethrone Clijsters, who has to be one of the favorites here. Clisters is 7-2 lifetime head-to-head so they know each other well, although they have only met twice (1-1) in the last two years. Clijsters in straight sets.

Vera Zvonareva's Quarter

Sam Stosur (5) vs. Lauren Davis

Aussie Stosur is doing as well now in her career now than ever before, and after strong performances in three of the four Slams last year she is in prime position for another strong run. This will be her ninth Australian Open and there’s every chance she will be able to go even further than her fourth-round exit 12 months ago. As for Davis, this will be a great experience for her. She qualified through the USTA wildcard playoff at the end of 2010, finishing the season No. 3 in the junior rankings. She has never played anybody inside the top 100 in her 26 pro matches, let alone someone of Stosur’s class. While I’d like to see her make it even slightly competitive, it’s not going to happen. Stosur will advance in under 45 minutes.

Maria Elena Camerin vs. Vera Dushevina

Dushevina has not hit the heights of her Russian compatriots, but she should be pretty comfortable in round one. Dushevina hits the ball hard and flat and she will be able to outplay Elena Camerin without too much problem considering the Italian is much more comfortable ripping that double-handed backhand down the line on clay than the asphalt. Petra Kvitova only dropped three games to Elena Camerin when they met in an ITF even in France at the end of last year, so expect a similar outcome here with Dushevina. 6-2, 6-3.

Olga Govortsova vs. Anna Chakvetadze

It’s hard to believe that Chakvetadze was once an elite player. I’m not a big fan of the world No. 56, but it’s clear that, even at 23 years old, she has seen her best days come and go. She made it to two quarterfinals and a semifinal in 2007, but she has been past the third round just once in 12 Slams since then. As for the Belarussian Govortsova, she has never performed well in Australia, instead being more suited to clay. She has gone out in the first round three consecutive times, including to a pair of players ranked more than 50 spots below her on the rankings. She has an average baseline game built around a strong double-handed backhand and she uses her height to her advantage, but Chakvetadze should edge this one.

Sally Peers vs. Petra Kvitova (25)

Melbourne native Peers is by no means an elite player, but the teenager might but be able to uspet the No. 25 seed. She enjoys the hard, faster courts and she is capable both from the back of the court and at the net. She made it to the quarterfinals in the doubles here at her home slam in 2010 and it’s really not too much of a stretch to think she can knock off Kvitova. Teenager Peers has already beaten Alisa Kleybanova this year and she has shown enough promise in the ITF events to suggest she’ll at least be competitive. Kvitova has started the season strong after beating both Nadia Petrova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on her way to the trophy in Brisbane, so she will enter as favorite. Kvitova double-bageled the Aussie in Hobart in 2009…don’t expect the same again. She’ll scrape through with a scare in three.

Flavia Pennetta (22) vs. Anastasia Rodionova

Pennetta has been a staple of the women’s top 100 for almost a decade now, and even though she has dropped back outside the elite 20, she is still a force on tour.  She has been pretty consistent in the big events over the last three years, and she’s always a threat to make it to the quarterfinals. A strong performance against world No. 2 Vera Zvonareva in Sydney will have done her confidence the world of good and she should be good enough to get past Russian-born Australian Rodionova who prefers utilizing her forehand on grass. Pennetta is 2-0 lifetime against Rodionova on hard courts, with a pair of straight-sets victories. It will be 3-0 soon.

Lourdes Domenguez Lino vs. Johanna Larsson

22-year-old Swede Larsson will be making her AO debut this year and after her game hit a plateau in 2009, she responded well last season to climb to 68 in the world. Early-round exits in Hobart and Brisbane are not the best prep for a Slam, but seven ITF finals in 2010 (including six of hard surfaces) should have her feeling optimistic.  As for the Spaniard, she has struggled over the last 18 months and is more at home on the European clay. A run to the third round in Flushing last fall showed glimpses of promise before she was unceremoniously dumped out by Dominika Cibulkova, but she just isn’t consistent as she needs to be. I’m going with the Melbourne Park rookie in this one.

Sorana Cirstea vs. Mirjana Lucic

This opening round clash is a battle of two women trying to stay in the top 100. Romanian Cirstea was up as high as No. 23 in August of 2009, but three straight first-round exits in Grand Slams has seen her drop down to her current position of 94. It has been much longer since Lucic was a top player, but to her credit the one-time world No. 32 has dragged herself back up from the depths of the 400s after essentially missing the best part of seven seasons. I don’t know if Lucic has the skill or the passion any more and my money is on Cirstea.

Mathilde Johansson vs. Shahar Peer (10)

Peer has been there or there abouts for the last five or six years, but she has worked hard enough to deserve her place in the top 10. She hasn’t been to a quarterfinal of a Slam since 2007, but a pair of fourth-round exits in 2010 suggest she’s not far away. Johansson has limited experiences of Grand Slams with the exception of her home open in France, and at 104 in the world isn’t expected to give Peer too many problems. She has a nice backhand that Peer should at least be way of, but Johansson is a clay-courter and doesn’t have much of a chance here.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (16) vs. Kirsten Flipkens

I see big things in Pavlyuchenkova’s future. The teenager hits hard, continues to climb in the rankings and knows what it takes to win after claiming her first two WTA titles at Monterrey and Istanbul in 2010. Flipkens will need to avoid the Russian’s forehand down the line, and she’ll need to constantly mix things up to keep Pavlyuchenkova from dominating the baseline rallies. If she plays like she did in her last tournament (Luxembourg) when she thrashed world No. 15 Aravane Rezai 6-0, 6-1 she always has a chance, but I see Pavlyuchenkova going through in straight sets.

Akgul Amanmuradova vs. Kristina Barrois

This is a tough one to call. Both women are tall, both have a heavy forehand and both are capable volleyers. Amanmuradova may be the (slightly) higher ranked player here and she is more experienced at the Grand Slam events, but she, too, is more of a clay courter. Barrois prefers hard, fast surfaces and her success might hinge on the ratio of winners to unforced errors she makes from her single-handed backhand. Both women have better chances of advancing to the third round in the women’s doubles than they do the singles, but I’ll go for the German here. She’s 2-0 against Amanmuradova lifetime in Slams, including last year’s AO. This will be No. 3.

Anabel Medina Garrigues vs. Iveta Benesova

The Czech 27-year-old should be the favorite here, especially against a lower-ranked woman who’s game is much more suited to the European season. Neither player had too much success in 2010, but even an early victory in round one would be met with seeded opponents in the second and third round. Benesova looked tired in her defeat to Marion Bartoli in Brisbane and the she was forced to retire in the qualifying rounds in Sydney. If she is injury-free then she should be fine, but if shoulder problems compromise the left-hander’s double-handed backhand, Medina Garrigues has a shot. The pair has split their last two match on hard courts (in Miami and Hobart) but I’ll pick Bensova in two sets.

Romina Oprandi vs. Maria Kirilenko (18)

The Russian should be pretty comfortable in round one and Oprandi won’t be able to get away with those horrible baseline drop shots that carried her to five ITF clay court finals in 2010. Any top player, especially on hard courts, should be able to dominate Oprandi, even more so if they attack her slow pace with an injection of speed. Kirilenko won their only previous meeting 6-1, 6-3 in the round of 64 in Rome last year and there’s no reason to think this will be any different. Kirilenko, who turns 24 next Tuesday, finished 2010 at a career-high No. 20 and she seems to be back on the right track.

Lucie Safarova (31) vs. Shuai Zhang

Safarova crept into a seed and it should be enough to carry her into a potential third-round clash with No. 2 Vera Zvonareva. She defeated nine top-32 ranked players in 2010 and has the game to dominate Zhang. 2011 marks the first year that the Chinese 21 year old will be in the main draw, but after seeing how vulnerable she looked making the transition from ITF tournaments to the Fed Cup, she will be outplayed and outclassed in Melbourne. Safarova to advance 6-1, 6-2.

Klara Zakopalova vs. Melanie Oudin

I’ve enjoyed watching Georgia native Oudin progress, but she never really took off in 2010 like many people thought she would after a surprising second half to ’09. Oudin only made it past the third round three times last year across all tournaments, compared to the seven of Zakopalova. Even though the Czech ended 2010 with four first-round losses in her last five events, she made it to the semis of Hobart two weeks ago, beating Oudin in straight sets in the first round. Zakopalova will need three sets, but it’s hers for the taking.

Bojana Jovanovski vs. Kai-Chen Chang

Chang has been making the Grand Slam rounds for a year now and she will be squaring off against AO debutant Jovanovski, who ended 2010 as the youngest player inside the top 100. The hard courts of Melbourne Park suit the Serbian’s game and she’ll be looking to utilize her forehand at every opportunity. Chang, by contrast, will rocking out the backhand, so expect a lot of cross-court rallies. Whoever is the most attacking will win this one, and I’m going with Jovanovski to win an error-laden first rounder.

Sybillie Bammer  vs. Vera Zvonareva (2)

Zvonareva has a very real chance to win the Australian Open and claim her maiden Grand Slam. She went close at Wimbledon and Flushing Meadows and she has been to the fourth round in Melbourne each of the last two years. She has to be considered one of the elite three or four women in the world right now and she should have little trouble marching in to the second week. Bammer isn’t the same player she was two or three years ago and she doesn’t have the game to upset someone of the second seed’s quality. Zvonareva will open her 2011 with a simple victory. Don’t expect her to lose more than four or five games.

The Qualifiers

American Coco Vandeweghe, the top seed in qualifying, had little trouble booking her place in the main draw, and the same held true for No. 2 Anne Keothavong.  Fourteenth-seeded qualifier Jamie Hampton will also get a spot in the draw, as will No. 24 Sania Mirza who beat Canadian Stephanie Dubois in straight sets to advance.

Arantxa Rus and Petra Martic upset higher-ranked women in the final round to get one of the 12 qualifying spots, and two Russians, Vesna Manasieva and Arina Rodionova, topped the third and fourth seeds respectively in securing their spot. 20-year-old Irina Falconi, experienced Anne Kremer, German Kathrin Woerle and Lesya Tsurenko complete the qualifying field.

None of the qualifiers are currently inside the top 100, although Keothovang has been inside the top 50 and Mirza the top 30, and they will pose big threats for whoever they stand opposite. Kremer was once No. 18 in the world, but has clearly not been an elite player for several years, but her experience could be invaluable in her 10th Australian Open. Four of the remaining women will be making their Australian Open debut, including Tsurenko who will make her first appearance in a Slam.

In Carolina Wozniacki's quarter, 11th seed Justine Henin headlines the players who will meet qualifiers in round one. Brit Elena Baltacha and American Barbie girl Bethanie Mattek-Sands will also face qualifiers, as will Laura Pous-Tio. Regarless of who they play, Henin looks to be the only sure thing here. Baltacha is capable of beating anyone, but she is horribly inconsistent and Mattek-Sands has a forehand that can literally end up anywhere. Vandeweghe and Keothovang could cause any of the latter three problems, and qualifiers like Sania Mirza could blast the likes of Pous-Tio off the court.

Three qualifiers have advanced to the first round in the bottom of the first half. Two will face off against each other in a bid to play the winner of Craybas-Petkovic, while the third will meet No. 8 seed Victoria Azarenka. Flip a coin in the first match, but expect Azarenka, regardless of who she meets, to advance. 

Kim Clijsters’ quarter features the greatest number of qualifiers with five. This could represent the quarter of the draw with the most surprises or, more likely, the easiest area to advance from. Alisa Kleybanova, Simona Halep, Sophie Ferguson, Patty Schnyder and Alize Cornet all meet players who made it from this week’s qualifying tournament, and there’s a great chance that at least two or three could get into the second round.

Kleybanova, the No. 24 seed, has the easier of the draws, and she could potentially meet qualifiers in her first three matches, while the home crowd will be pleased to see native Ferguson has a great opportunity to get into round two.