NFL Playoffs 2011: Jets-Patriots betting odds and pick

Considering that the New England Patriots have been walloping everyone in their path over the last half of the season, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Vegas has them as a decent sized favorite in Sunday’s rubber-match with the New York Jets.

Online betting group Sportsbook.com currently has the Jets/Patriots point spread at New York plus nine points, with 66 percent of the money backing the Patriots.

As we all know, the football betting public just about always puts their money on the favorites, which of course is a recipe to go broke. However, after looking at some of the key numbers, it’s really hard to blame the public.

Over the last half of the season the Patriots have been stomping just about everyone in their path to go a flawless 8-0. They have also been kind to their bettors with a 6-2 record against the spread (ATS). The Tom Brady led offense has been dominant; scoring at least 31 points in each game.

You can’t ignore what their defense has done recently either. After giving up over 24 points per game (ppg) in their first 11 games, their last five opponents combined to average just 9.4 ppg. Even more impressive, only one of those five opponents was able to put double-digits on the scoreboard.

Oddly enough, the Pats’ defense can be rushed on. Four of their last six opponents were able to rush for at least 125 yards, including the Jets (152 yards) in early December. However, the Patriots had the last laugh as they destroyed their AFC East rival 45-3.

Brady was at his best, tearing up Darelle Revis and the rest of the Jets secondary for 326 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, Jets’ signal caller Mark Sanchez had a brutal showing.  The second year USC product went for 164 yards, zero touchdowns and three picks.

The result was quite different in their first head-to-head meeting back in September as the Jets were victorious 28-14. This time Brady struggled and Sanchez stood out.

It should be noted that Jets Coach Rex Ryan gets his guys up when playing a team they lost to in their last meeting. This is evidenced by a 10-3 record ATS in their last 13 games when avenging the loss to an opponent.

That isn’t the only interesting NFL betting trend for the Jets vs. Patriots game. How about, the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Now this one is surprising, the Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games, while the Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six January games.

Oddsauthority.com Jets vs. Patriots free pick

Rex Ryan and the Jets are confident, but are they overconfident? All the smack talk and bully antics are fine, but they are playing the NFL’s best and most confident team. Pats coach Bill Belichick thrives off of games like this and would love to run up the score against a team he hates.

The last four times the Jets played in New England versus Tom Brady, they were thrashed by double-digits. Sunday afternoon will make it five in a row, go bet the Patriots (minus nine) at Sportsbook.com.