San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum, 10 Players Who Will Improve in 2011
It was a magical season for the San Francisco Giants. It took 52 years in San Francisco, but in 2010, the Giants finally ended years of frustration and won the World Series.
Led by outstanding pitching, timely hitting, great midseason acquisitions by GM Brian Sabean and managerial moves that seemed like strokes of genius by Bruce Bochy, the Giants are the world champions. As a lifelong Giants fan, I am still basking in the glory of the 2010 World Series title.
2011, however, brings a new challenge. Now, atop the grand pedestal, all other ball clubs will be shooting to knock the Giants off their perch. That will be a tall order, as the Giants return almost all the players that formed the nucleus of the team last year.
Juan Uribe, who took a sweet deal in LA, will be replaced by Miguel Tejada. World Series MVP Edgar Renteria, who finally earned some of his $18 million, two-year contract with a strong NLCS and clutch World Series performance, moves on to the Reds.
The exciting thing heading into the 2011 campaign is that there are several Giants who could actually have a better season this year. Let's take a closer look at 10 players who I expect to have a better season in 2011.
If some of these players have improved years and the core of this team remains healthy, the Giants will be right back in the playoff hunt come October.
10) Cody Ross
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Cody Ross came to the Giants as a waiver claim in late August. In addition to the fact that Ross is a solid player, the Giants also were trying to block the San Diego Padres from getting him. This move, along with several others that GM Brian Sabean made, enabled the Giants to overtake the Padres and win the NL West.
The rest, as they say, is history.
During the remainder of the 2010 regular season, Ross saw irregular playing time and didn't really get his batting stroke down until the playoffs. Ross had 82 plate appearances for the Giants and hit a solid .288, but with only 3 HR and 7 RBI.
At the end of the season and into the playoffs, Ross got to see regular playing time and at-bats, as the Giants soured on Jose Guillen. Ross has a long, somewhat loopy swing and needs regular at-bats to get his swing in the groove.
Ross got hot at the right time, as he had a tremendous postseason run, which earned him the NLCS MVP award for his heroics against the Phillies. In the postseason, Ross had 51 ABs and hit for a .294 average, with 5 HRs and 10 RBI.
Ross is slated to start the 2011 season in right field for the Giants. He will see regular playing time and should be a solid producer for the Giants. Also, as a very good defensive player, Ross will be more comfortable playing the spacious right center field at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
In the 2010 season, split between Florida and San Francisco, Ross only had 14 HRs and 65 RBI, while batting .269. In 2011, I project Ross will hit closer to .275-.280, and collect roughly 18-20 HRs and 70-75 RBI while playing regularly for the Giants.
These are not huge increases, but even a 5-10 percent jump in production from Cody Ross will benefit the Giants.
9) Freddy Sanchez
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Freddy Sanchez is coming off an injury-plagued 2010 season in which he played only 111 games for the San Francisco Giants. He had 431 at-bats and hit for a .292 average with seven homers and 47 RBI.
Sanchez is an outstanding contact hitter and won a batting title in 2006 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he hit .344. While I do not expect Sanchez to approach those gaudy numbers again, he is a career .298 hitter and for him to hit over .300 in 2011 is not out of the question.
I do expect Freddy Sanchez to play in more than 111 games for the Giants in the coming season. To do this, he will need to stay healthy. In December, Sanchez had his second surgery on his left, non-throwing shoulder in a year's time. He is expected to be ready to play in the second half of spring training and all signs point to him being ready for opening day.
If this is the case, and Sanchez remains healthy, he should play in roughly 135 games this coming season. That alone would be a boost to the Giants, as his defense is also stellar at second base.
I project that Sanchez will play in 130 games in 2011, hit for a .296 average with seven home runs and 58 RBI. The added benefit is that he brings excellent defensive stability to the right side of the infield for San Francisco.
8) Jeremy Affeldt
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Everyone always talks about the starting pitching for the San Francisco Giants and rightfully so. The Giants' starters comprise one of the best, if not the best, starting pitching staffs in all of baseball.
However, one of the key strengths of this team is their stellar bullpen. This is where the Giants have a huge advantage over many of the other top contenders in the National League. The bullpen is anchored by closer Brian Wilson and able set-up men Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez. Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez add quality arms to this group.
The only relief pitcher to have a down year in 2010 was Jeremy Affeldt. He was tremendous in 2009 with an ERA of 1.73 and a WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) of 1.17.
2010 was a different year for Affeldt. His ERA ballooned to 4.14 with a WHIP of 1.60. The WHIP ratio of 1.6 means that Affeldt allowed an average of 1.6 hitters to reach base every inning he pitched. That is way too high for any pitcher, as an average WHIP rate is more like 1.35.
Affeldt's shining moment in 2010 came in the NLCS when starter Jonathan Sanchez was struggling and couldn't make it out of the third inning. After a near fight, Sanchez was replaced by Affeldt with two runners on base and no outs.
His first hitter was slugger Ryan Howard. Affeldt somehow got out of the inning and did not allow the Phillies to score. The Giants went on to win the game and the series.
Affeldt should combine with Javier Lopez to give the Giants two solid lefties out of the bullpen in 2011. In addition, Affeldt, who will turn 32 years old in June, is in the final year of his contract. He has every motivation to have a good year and I believe he will rebound.
My projection for Jeremy Affeldt in 2011 is an ERA of 3.32 with a WHIP of 1.33.
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7) Tim Lincecum
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Tim Lincecum is the leader of the San Francisco Giants pitching staff. At a diminutive 5'11" and 170 lbs., soaking wet, Lincecum is a dominant force on the mound.
Lincecum joined the Giants midway through the 2008 season and showed great promise. However, nobody could predict what happened in the next two seasons.
In his first full season in 2008, Lincecum amazed everyone with his dominance and competitiveness. He won the first of his two Cy Young Awards, with a record of 18-5, 2.62 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. He also led the league with 265 strikeouts in 227 innings.
2009 was more of the same, as Lincecum went 15-7 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. He again led the National League in strikeouts with 261 in 225 innings. Lincecum became the first player in baseball history to win back to back Cy Young Awards in his first two full years in the majors.
It's hard to say that 2010 was a down year for Lincecum as he won 16 games against 10 losses. His ERA was 3.43 with a WHIP of 1.272. Nevertheless, Lincecum struggled mightily in August, when he did not win a start. Lincecum struck out 231 in 212 innings pitched.
There were many speculations as to why Lincecum was not as dominant, but I believe there are two key factors. First, his velocity was down. Lincecum's fastball typically topped out at 94-96 mph in his earlier years, but he struggled to hit 91-92 mph in many of his 2010 starts.
In addition, Lincecum got away from his prior workout routine and long-toss regimen. When he resumed tougher workouts between starts and long-toss activities, his velocity improved and he seemed much stronger down the stretch and into the playoffs.
This knowledge will definitely benefit the ultra-competitive Lincecum. He has become a more crafty pitcher and can now utilize multiple pitches to get hitters out. With improved velocity to go along with his devastating change-up, expect Lincecum to again be one of the top pitchers in baseball.
My projections for Tim Lincecum are a record of 17-7, an ERA of 3.20 and WHIP of 1.19. He should again eclipse 200 innings pitched and expect another year of 240 or more strikeouts.
6) Jonathan Sanchez
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Jonathan Sanchez has arguably the best "stuff" on the Giants pitching staff. He can be dominant at times and at others, maddeningly inconsistent, with very little idea where his pitches are headed.
I had advocated trading Sanchez for a hitter, but thankfully, Brian Sabean didn't do it. Jonathan Sanchez was arguably the Giants' best pitcher down the stretch in September and his steady performance was a key factor in the Giants overtaking the Padres.
Sanchez did not pitch particularly well in the postseason as some of the same bugaboos, usually pertaining to a loss of command, reared up again. Nevertheless, Sanchez had a breakout type of year and seems to have gained a lot of maturity that will help him in 2011.
For the first time since he became a starter in 2008, Sanchez had a winning record, at 13-9. He also lowered his ERA from 4.24 in 2009 to 3.07 last year. Sanchez had a WHIP of 1.231, which was incredible considering he led the Giants in walks with 100.
In 2010, Jonathan Sanchez gave up only 142 hits in 193 innings. That workload was a full 30 innings more than at any time in his career. His 205 strikeouts were better than one per inning.
Sanchez has learned to pitch deeper in games and his bouts of wildness have decreased. With that, his opportunities to win will also increase.
I project Sanchez to throw over 200 innings in the coming season, with a 14-7 record and ERA of 3.24. The increased number of innings will also lighten the workload on the bullpen.
5) Barry Zito
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Barry Zito has had a less than stellar run with the San Francisco Giants. After signing a seven-year, $126 million contract in 2007, Zito has had four unspectacular seasons with the Giants. I do think he will somehow turn it around and be decent in 2011.
I do not expect Zito to ever be the kind of pitcher that won the Cy Young in 2002, but I also do not expect him to be the downtrodden loser that he has been since his arrival in San Francisco. Zito, although the highest-paid Giant, was left off the playoff roster for the Giants. This had to be a major blow to his ego, as the Giants went on to win the World Series without him pitching a single postseason inning.
Barry Zito pitched well in his first couple of months of 2010, then struggled as the season wore on. He ended up with a 9-14 record, his fourth consecutive losing season for the Giants.
Zito has shown that he is a very durable starter and made 34 starts for the Giants last year. He has not started less than 30 times in any year since 2001. The unfortunate thing is that so many of the starts were poor. Zito had an ERA of 4.15, with a WHIP of 1.344. He also walked 91 hitters in 199 innings pitched.
I fully expect Barry Zito to come into spring training in great shape and have a decent season. He was very disappointed in being left off the Giants' postseason roster.
My projection for Zito is a 12-12 record and 3.97 ERA. Although these are certainly not spectacular numbers, they are a significant step up from his past performances in San Francisco. I'm sure the Giants would take these numbers.
4) Buster Posey
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Buster Posey joined the San Francisco Giants in late May, played exceptionally well and went on to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. He played in 108 games for the Giants and hit .305 with 18 home runs and 67 RBI. Posey also spent a large part of the year hitting in the cleanup spot, typically unheard of for a rookie.
Another big concern for the Giants was how Posey would handle the everyday catching duties. The Giants did not need to worry, as Buster Posey gained the trust and confidence of his pitching staff. He was a hard worker and quickly learned to utilize his pitchers' strengths and call a good game.
Posey also has a great arm and would largely shut down the running game of the opposition.
Posey's offense was a huge lift for the Giants and his defense was a very pleasant surprise for them also. So good was Posey that he caught every game down the September stretch run, playoffs and World Series. During that closing stretch for the Giants, Posey was as cool as a veteran and his contributions were instrumental in the Giants' world championship run.
How, you might ask, can someone who played so well improve on that?
Barring injury, Buster Posey will likely play in closer to 140 games this year for the Giants. A full season from Posey will also mean increased production.
My projections for Buster Posey are a .312 batting average, 23 homers and 85 RBI. These projections could also be too conservative, as Posey has the talent and attitude to potentially exceed these numbers by a wide margin.
3) Mark DeRosa
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The 2010 season for Mark DeRosa was a major disappointment. DeRosa's wrist injury from 2009 never really healed and he was only able to play in 26 games for the Giants in the 2010 season. In his 104 plate appearances, DeRosa batted .194, hit only one home run and had just 10 RBI.
DeRosa was a good teammate throughout the regular season and in the postseason, even though he could not play. In 2011, the Giants are counting on DeRosa to fill the role of super utility player. He can play either corner OF position, as well as 3B, 2B and 1B. His versatility will give manager Bruce Bochy another key weapon to use off the bench.
I expect Mark DeRosa to play in 100 games for the 2011 season, although many of those will be as a pinch hitter. My projection is for DeRosa to get about 300 at-bats, hit for a .266 average, along with six HRs and 39 RBI. These numbers are not great by any means, but will be just fine for the role DeRosa will play as a utility player.
2) Madison Bumgarner
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Heading into spring training last year, the Giants had penciled in Madison Bumgarner as their fifth starter. However, in the spring, his velocity was down about 5-7 mph and he was quite hittable.
Bumgarner did not do the requisite work in the offseason to maintain his arm strength and lost his opportunity to open the season with the big club. Instead, he was replaced by Todd Wellemeyer, who started 11 games for the Giants.
Madison Bumgarner got himself straightened out in Fresno, the Giants' Triple-A affiliate. He was called up to join the Giants in late June and went on to make 18 starts in the regular season and four postseason appearances.
The rookie pitched very well and the Giants were impressed by Bumgarner's maturity, mound presence and fierce competitive nature. His tough demeanor and no-nonsense attitude were unexpected from a rookie pitcher, who turned 21 years old on August 1.
Madison Bumgarner made 18 starts for the Giants after he was called up to the big-league club. He won seven games against six losses and posted an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.306.
Giants management was wary of Bumgarner throwing too many innings but he kept pitching so well, they let him go. Bumgarner threw 111 innings for the Giants, plus another 20 in the postseason. He also threw 83 innings in Fresno, so his workload was a total of 214 innings for the year. That workload did not seem to affect him, as he actually got stronger at the end of the season and into the playoffs.
Looking ahead to 2011, I believe Bumgarner learned a valuable lesson from the previous offseason. He will come into camp in much better condition and the Giants will be looking for a full season from him.
My projection for Bumgarner in 2011 is a 12-8 record, with a 3.57 ERA. I also expect him to throw between 180-200 innings this coming season. He is slated to be the Giants' number four pitcher in the rotation and will likely follow Matt Cain to the hill.
1) Pablo Sandoval
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Pablo Sandoval burst onto the major league scene in 2008, when he hit .345 in 145 at-bats for the Giants. He continued his hitting prowess in 2009, hitting for a .330 average, with 25 home runs and 90 RBI.
Sandoval was loved by the fans in San Francisco, as they really took to the portly and gregarious player nicknamed the "Kung Fu Panda."
Fans young and old sported panda bear gear, and panda faces could be seen throughout AT&T Park, the beautiful home of the Giants. Unfortunately, the Panda got off to a slow start and never really hit his stride in 2010. Opposing pitchers learned they could get Sandoval out without throwing a strike. The free-swinging Sandoval got himself out more often than not by flailing at pitches in the dirt or over his head.
The only thing Pablo Sandoval appeared to be hitting on a regular basis was the dinner table. Sandoval slumped to a .268 batting average with only 13 homers and 63 RBI. His weight ballooned up to well above his batting average and he became a defensive liability at third base.
The Giants gave Sandoval every chance they could to be productive, but finally had to sit him down. Sandoval was benched for the majority of the postseason, making only rare appearances. Juan Uribe moved from shortstop to third base and Edgar Renteria played shortstop and was the World Series MVP.
Sandoval remained a good teammate and supported his team, but you could see the frustration he felt at not being in the lineup. The Giants have taken a tough-love stance with the Panda. He must lose weight, probably at least 20 pounds, before the start of spring training or they have threatened to send him to the minors.
Pablo Sandoval is working hard this offseason to take off the weight and keep it off. He will also need to be more selective and lay off pitches thrown well off the plate or in the dirt. The 2010 season was a wake-up call for Sandoval and I expect him to regain his batting stroke and improve in the field.
My projection for Pablo Sandoval in 2011 is a .298 batting average with 19 HRs and 76 RBI. If Sandoval can recapture his magic from 2009, these projections will be way too low.
2011 Outlook
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The San Francisco Giants have kept the core of their 2010 World Series championship team intact. Miguel Tejada replaces Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria has moved on, but the core of their team remains, including the vaunted pitching staff.
The Giants had a magical season in 2010, ending 52 years of frustration in San Francisco. The 2011 team has a chance to repeat the success of the prior season as long as the team can stay relatively healthy.
With the Giants' outstanding pitching staff, they should be in the hunt right up to the very end. The key will be for them to keep their focus and build on the momentum from 2010.
I am not at all enthused about the planned Showtime reality show that the Giants are embarking on. The Giants do not need the intrusive force of a bunch of television cameras. The cameras will create distractions and may lead to individual jealousies and hurt the excellent team chemistry of the Giants.
Hopefully, they will reconsider this decision, as I can guarantee it will have a negative effect on the team.
The San Francisco Giants have an excellent chance at repeating as the NL West winner and if that happens, they have the pitching staff to go far in the postseason. It will not be easy to repeat as world champions, but at least they have that chance. Twenty-nine other ball clubs wish they were in that position.
As a lifelong San Francisco Giants fan, I'm just happy they won it at least once in my lifetime.
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