Australian Open 2011: 10 Biggest Questions Facing the Men's Field
In 1969 Rod Laver accomplished a feat no man has matched in 41 years of tennis: winning all four majors in a calendar year. Even Roger Federer hasn't sniffed the Grand Slam, although in 2006 and 2007 he had a chance to hold all four majors titles. Nadal denied him both times at Roland Garros. Now it’s Rafa's chance to claim the “Successive Slam.” Ironically, a rejuvenated Federer poses the biggest obstacle. Rafa or Federer? It’s the question everyone’s asking leading up to opening day in Melbourne. We'll tackle this one plus nine others in a preview of the men's field of the 2011 Australian Open.
10. Can Hewitt Make a Run?
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Didn’t Lleyton Hewitt retire? Yeah, right. He nursed a hip injury last season, and the time off may have been good for tennis’ ultimate grinder. Hewitt defeated Mikhail Youzhny this week in the Kooyong Classic, fueling hope that he may be poised to win the big one on home soil. Gael Monfils was so impressed he claimed Hewitt could very well pick up a third major. Hewitt hasn’t made any such predictions, but don’t be surprised to see him playing in the second week. The pro-Aussie crowd won’t hurt.
9. Is Bernard Tomic for Real?
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Hewitt isn’t the only Aussie with a chance to make headlines. 18-year-old Bernard Tomic has been touted as Australia’s next great hope. Unfortunately, he’s made more news with his mouth than his racket. He shunned Lleyton Hewitt’s request for a practice session at Wimbledon in 2009. Bad move. Then last year he criticized Australian Open directors for scheduling such a late match against Marin Cilic. Bad move. It will be interesting to see how he’s received this year. Maybe he should take a page from Ryan Harrison and let his play do the talking. His mouth alone won't get him past the second round, his best showing so far.
8. Can Soderling Get Comfortable Down Under?
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Robin Soderling has become a legitimate Top 5 player. But his record in Australia is nothing less than miserable. He bowed out in the second round in 2009; last year he lost in the first round to Marcel Granollers – after winning the first two sets! Still, he’s proven he can beat both Nadal (2009 French) and Federer (2010 Wimbledon) on the major stage. What other player can boast that? He beat Andy Roddick this past weekend to win the title in Brisbane. But if he wants a crack at the top dogs in Melbourne he needs to find a way through the early rounds. History isn’t on his side.
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7. Who Will Break on Through?
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Recently the Australian Open has proven to be the “breakout” major. Marcos Baghdatis made the finals in 2006. Ditto for Fernando Gonzalez in 2007. Djokovic won his first major in 2008. He beat unseeded Frenchman Jo-Wilfried-Tsonga, who was making his first appearance in a major final. In 2010 it was Marin Cilic who made the semis and took a set from Andy Murray. This year I like Gael Monfils. Monfils made the semi-finals of Roland Garros in 2008, but some would argue he hasn’t lived up to his huge talent. Maybe he’s 2011's breakthrough performer. If not, you can still expect a “surprising” name in the semi-finals.
6. He's Baaaaack. But Is He Really Back?
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Seems the last time we saw Juan Martin del Potro he was blasting Roger Federer off the court in the finals of the 2009 U.S. Open. But an injured wrist kept him sidelined for most of 2010. Del Potro beat Feliciano Lopez in a grueling 3+ hour match this past week, but then fell to Florian Mayer. Mayer said del Potro clearly wasn’t 100 percent. Del Potro agreed. Plus, just one tune-up before the Australian might not be enough to have him match ready. Hard to imagine he’ll be around for the second week.
5. What’s the Best Bet on the Board?
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Sure, the smart money is on Federer and Nadal. Both are currently listed as 15/8 favorites. But betting $10 to win $18.75 is, well, boring. How about a player with a bigger payoff? Djokovic at 15-2. No way. Murray at 6-1. Double no way. Del Potro at 16-1. Are you crazy? Soderling at 18-1. Never been past the second round. Davydenko (speaking of gambling) at 25-1. The guy’s never made a major final. Berdych at 28-1. Not tough enough. Roddick and Nalbandian at 33-1. Not on your life. Tsonga and Monfils at 40-1. Save your francs. Verdasco and Cilic at 50-1. Tempting, but not quite. Stanislas Wawrinka at 80-1. Now you’re talking! By far the best bet of the tournament. Great run at last year’s U.S. Open. In great shape. Blew through the Chennai Open last week and says he’s in top form heading to Melbourne. $10 to win $800. Sounds good to me.
4. Can An American Be a Factor
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For the past several years American hopes for a major champ have rested on the serve and forehand of Andy Roddick. He made the finals in Brisbane and seems to be playing well. With all the attention on Federer and Nadal, maybe Roddick flies under the radar this year and makes a quiet run to the final weekend. After cruising along in blissful obscurity for years, Mardy Fish convinced the tennis world he is remade after his run at last year’s U.S. Open. He’s in great shape, a huge bonus in the sweltering heat. Then there are John Isner and young Ryan Harrison. I’m not sure Isner has the all-court game to reach a slam semi or final; Harrison earned a wild-card spot and will surely be a fan favorite after his U.S. Open effort. Can he go a bit deeper down under?
3. Can Anyone Beat Federer and Nadal?
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Yes, it’s more than likely someone will have to do both to claim the title. Good luck. We’ve been anticipating the first major for Andy Murray for a few years now. Maybe it’s time we stop holding our breath? Djokovic gamely took Nadal to four sets after beating Federer in New York, but it may be too much to ask of him (or anyone) to sweep away the top two. Especially if Federer and Nadal both make the semis.
2. Is Nadal Healthy?
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Depends on who you ask. He took off almost zero time after last season, a questionable decision. Then there was the fever in Qatar, which delayed his trip to Australia. Nadal seems like the type of player who would favor best of fifteen sets; but the heat of the Australian and the pressure of a major can subdue anyone who’s not 100 percent physically and mentally. On the other hand, health is often over-hyped. Remember Michael Jordan’s “The Flu Game” against the Jazz? Or Pete Sampras puking at 1-1 in a fifth set tiebreaker against Alex Corretja in the 1996 U.S. Open. Guess who won that one? I suspect Nadal will be just fine come tournament time.
1. Will Federer Stay Aggressive?
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My high school cheerleading team’s favorite basketball chant: Be, aggressive, be be, aggressive. Maybe they could make an appearance in Federer’s box? Federer seemed content to let his opponents dictate play for much of 2010. The conservative style didn’t suit a man with the most offensive firepower the tennis world has ever seen. During last year’s U.S. Open Series you could sense Federer getting reacquainted with his mojo. He didn’t win in New York, but he overpowered Nadal to end the year and is now playing the brand of high-risk tennis fans have been dying for. In Doha he looked more quick and lethal than Uma Thurman in Kill Bill. The BIG question: can he summon the same aggressiveness in a major? If the answer is yes, Federer should rule as this year’s Wizard of Oz.
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