Handicapping the Chase Drivers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

So the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set. The 12 drivers involved have made their compulsory David Letterman Show appearance, and we’re set for 10 weeks of the finest racing NASCAR has to offer.

We start at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It's not always the most entertaining track, but it's perhaps the most vital in the Chase.

Of the four drivers to win at Loudon since the Chase era began in 2004, none has ever finished worse than sixth in points that year.

With that in mind, expect a Chase driver to win this weekend; the question is, which one?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this weekend at Loudon:

1. Kyle Busch: Kyle is usually better at Loudon in the summer (average finish of 10.3 in four starts) than he is in the fall (average finish of 23.0 in three starts). However, in three Car of Today starts at the track, his average finish is 13.3 with one Top Five finish, and his summer race this year was sabotaged by the front bumper of Juan Pablo Montoya.

2. Carl Edwards: Surprisingly, one second place finish in summer 2006 comprises Cousin Carl’s only top 10 finish at Loudon. On the other hand, Edwards’ worst finish at the track was 20th in fall 2004, in only his fifth career Cup start. In eight career starts, he’s only failed to complete one lap (in 2004). Edwards won’t get you a win, most likely, but he’s a sure bet for a solid finish.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t won a race at New Hampshire since he swept both events in 2003. That being said, he also has never failed to finish a race at the track, only getting caught up in one accident two years ago that put him down 67 laps. His average finish in the COT is a whopping 6.7, and his average finish at the track overall is a solid 10.5. Expect Johnson to challenge for a win, especially given the hot streak he’s been on lately.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior led 29 laps here in the summer, 68 last year in subpar Dale Earnhardt Inc. equipment, and 120 at the fall race in 2003. He’s capable of running well at Loudon, even if his average finish in COT races here is only 14.7. The only reason Junior finished in 24th here this summer was because of a pit road accident with Jamie McMurray, when Junior forgot to signal that he was entering the pits and McMurray plowed into his car. Look for another decent run.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint won this race last year after leading 222 laps. It was his first career Sprint Cup victory, and it put to rest criticism that he made the 2007 Chase without any race wins. Clint then went on to finish third overall last year. He was also fastest in Cup practice on Friday. However, his average finish in his other four career starts at NHMS is 27.5. Bowyer will either be a boom or a bust this weekend.

6. Denny Hamlin: For starters, in five career New Hampshire starts, Denny has never failed to finish the race. His average finish of 6.8 is buoyed by one win and four top 10s in those races, with his worst finish being 15th at this race last year. Count on a top finish.

7. Jeff Burton: You can’t go wrong with any driver who once led every lap of a race in the modern era, and Burton led every lap of this race in 2000. From 1996 to 2000, in nine starts, his average finish was 4.7 with four wins. Since joining RCR, Burton’s average finish is a solid if not spectacular 11.1, and RCR cars have won at New Hampshire in the fall the past two years. Seeing Burton in Victory Lane again this weekend shouldn’t be a stretch.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke should have won at Loudon in the summer, until the racing gods decided to smile upon nemesis Kurt Busch instead. Factoring in a win instead of his eventual 13th place finish would make Tony’s average COT finish at New Hampshire a whopping 5.3. Since 2004, he’s led 620 of 2,692 possible laps in Cup starts at the track, and was .292 seconds away from sweeping both 2005 races. Tony should break his winless drought this weekend.

9. Greg Biffle: Save for three top 5 finishes accrued in his excellent 2005 season and the summer 2006 race, Biffle hasn’t been all that impressive at New Hampshire. Da Biff has an average finish of 19.5 overall at Loudon, but it’s only 20.4 in the fall races. Worse still, Biffle’s average finish in the COT at Loudon is 21.7. Yikes.

10. Jeff Gordon: Since the COT was first run at New Hampshire last year, Gordon has scored the most points at the track of any Chase driver, with 475. He has Top 10 finishes in 15 of 27 times starts at New Hampshire, including three wins. Count on a solid finish.

11. Kevin Harvick: Happy won this race in 2006 on the way to a fourth-place finish in points. Since 2003, Harvick has never finished outside of the top 20 at Loudon in the fall, with his worst finish being 17th last year. Harvick also led 54 laps in the summer race.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth himself said last week at Richmond that Roush Fenway cars aren’t too good at Loudon, and he backed it up by ranking 39th out of 45 on Friday’s speed chart. However, he’s also the seventh best driver of all-time in the COT era at the track. In 17 career starts at Loudon, Kenseth’s average finish is 10.9, and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 at the track in over six years.

So who would I pick? Stewart, of course. Not only is Smoke overdue for a win, highly competitive at New Hampshire, and moderately fast in practice (13th overall), but he’s got a monkey on his back after (in his opinion) throwing away a win last week at Richmond. Expect Tony to make amends this week.