2011 NFL Draft Predictions: Power Ranking Prospects With the Most Bust Potential
The 2011 NFL Draft is fast approaching. Mock drafts are being finalized, and the one player that people were agreeing would not be a bust, Andrew Luck, has decided to return to Stanford. As a result, you could now have 100 different mock drafts with 100 different orders in the top 15, and at least three or four people who are potential No. 1 selections.
There are still a couple people who I think would be sure things in the NFL personally. Namely, Patrick Peterson has all the tools to be an elite defensive back. Many others, however, are more concerning. Every year, picks end up being busts and this year will be no exception.
Which selections are most likely to be busts? Read on to find out.
15. Justin Blackmon
1 of 15
Was Blackmon's amazing season the product of the Oklahoma State system or is he really that good? I think the latter and he's worth a first-round pick, but I know others are saying he won't last in the NFL, especially in a more run-focused system.
14. Cam Newton
2 of 15
Every quarterback that looks to be taken in the first round has bust potential. Newton is ranked the furthest down, not because he's the most sure thing necessarily, but because teams know what they'll get from him: a scrambling quarterback who's a very good passer. Even if he falters as a quarterback, there are other uses for him.
13. Prince Amukamara
3 of 15
Because Patrick Peterson will go so quickly, any team looking for a playmaking corner will go after Prince Amukamara. However, his senior year was a step back once Ndamukong Suh left school and that makes me wonder if he can be dominant on his own or if he needs to be on a team with an excellent pass rush to be great himself.
He likely will be fine, but you never know.
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12. Cameron Heyward
4 of 15
There's a reason he's been slipping in draft rankings. After a senior season in which he didn't seem to show his dominance, the question arises as to whether he was just a quiet leader, as the OSU defense was quite good, or if he doesn't have that mean streak for the next level.
I hope he's successful since I'm a huge "Ironhead" Heyward fan, but I don't think he'll be more than an average five-to-seven year guy.
11. Da'Quan Bowers
5 of 15
Potentially the top front-seven player in the draft, Bowers was outstanding this year after a couple rather quiet years at Clemson. He has durability question marks, which is one place you do not want a football player to have a weakness.
10. Derek Sherrod
6 of 15
Nate Solder is coming up on most draft lists as the top offensive tackle and seems to be gaining steam. I'm willing to buy this.
Derek Sherrod is gaining steam as well, but I'm much less willing to buy this. He has not been all that impressive this season, and if he's the top pick by any team, they'll be left wanting an offensive lineman in next year's draft.
9. Ryan Mallett
7 of 15
A lot of people are writing him off as he has started to slide down the draft, and I'm not entirely sure why. Yes, there are some character issues and inconsistency, but he did have a great year at Arkansas facing some great defenses, and I think he'll be OK.
Nonetheless, many have him written up as a bust, so he lands on this ranking.
8. Julio Jones
8 of 15
One thing you do not want to see in a wideout is that he doesn't have good hands. This is the case we have with Alabama wideout Julio Jones. He has potential, but he is still raw and inconsistent, and I see him being more of a Braylon Edwards-type receiver at best.
He can be good, but he has to work out his issues fast or else he'll be out of the league quickly.
7. Aldon Smith
9 of 15
Aldon Smith has jumped on draft boards suddenly as a first-round talent after declaring yesterday. ESPN's Gil Brandt said it best about him: "Historically, I don't think it's a good move…He's got potential, no question. That's what you're banking on, his potential."
He hasn't proven himself at the college level yet, so how can you expect him to in the NFL?
6. J.J. Watt
10 of 15
Watt's either been slipping in draft ranks or continuing to rise depending on which you look at. ESPN now has him as an early second-round choice, which sounds realistic, as he's not a first-round talent.
He's solid and will provide a team with a solid lineman for many years, but if he goes in the first round, then he'll be a bust, as he won't put up those kind of numbers.
5. Jake Locker
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The fact that he's still a first-round talent after the season he just had tells us a lot. Namely that people don't seem to look too much at how quarterbacks actually play. He's a tough guy and will try to make the talent he does have work, but he's a guy with upside, not a franchise guy you use a first-round pick on.
He's a third-round talent who catches a break because teams love to select quarterbacks with their first selection so often.
4. Nick Fairley
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Nick Fairley has rocketed up draft boards by being the best defender on the best team. That's pretty much it. Yes, he had a great season, but I'm skeptical of using such a high pick on someone just because they happen to be on the top team in the country, even if he did have a very good individual season.
He will either be great or a bust. There's not really an in-between on him.
3. Mark Ingram
13 of 15
Ingram is the best running back in the weakest class in quite some time. While Miami is a good fit for him and he'll work out well there, if anyone is expecting an All-Pro to emerge, that won't happen. Running backs are always risky first-round choices, but he has all the opportunity to prove me wrong should he land on the right team.
Still, he may not have have even been the best running back on his own team this year. Can he compete on a team with an average or worse offensive line? That I highly doubt.
2. Adrian Clayborn
14 of 15
Many draft boards have him as one of the top defensive linemen. While Bowers and Fairley land on here, I would pick them without worrying much. Clayborn, on the other hand, I see slipping on draft boards, and for good reason. Character concerns aside, my main problem with him is the lack of playmaking ability.
He doesn't seem to always hustle when getting to players with the ball, and while he's good at pressuring the quarterback, you need a lineman to do more than that. I don't think Clayborn can.
1. Blaine Gabbert
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After Luck decided to return to school, the top quarterback on big boards, and even the top player period on some, is Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.
Why? He's not that good. I can give a myriad of reasons why he'll struggle. First off, his stats come from a spread offense, yet are still unimpressive. Second, everyone uses his size and speed as an indicator of him being good in the NFL. JaMarcus Russell had a good frame, too—that didn't exactly work out.
Beyond that, he is not that good a decision maker in the clutch. We all saw that last throw in the Insight Bowl. His pros are all things that don't necessarily translate into the NFL and I see his career trajectory looking like, if he's lucky, Matt Leinart.
Whoever picks him will be quite disappointed with themselves two to three years down the line.
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