College Football Insider: BCS Championship Game Preview

Coming this Monday night, we will see the biggest game of the college football season as the Auburn Tigers will take on the Oregon Ducks in the BCS National Championship game in Glendale, Arizona.

Coming into the game, the Ducks are a slight favorite over the Tigers and for good reason.  They have one of the most potent offenses in college football and can score fast from anywhere on the field.  They are led by running back LaMichael James and he’s going to see a lot of action in this game.  Auburn is led by Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and all-around great talent Cam Newton.  He’s been almost impossible to stop this season.

So can the Ducks keep Newton and the Auburn offense at bay?  Will the Tigers be able to stop James and the rest of the highly potent Oregon offense?

Let’s find out in this extended preview of the BCS Title game this Monday night.

When the Tigers have the Ball

As mentioned, the Tiger’s offense is led by Newton.  Newton has attempted 246 passes, completing 165 of them for 2589 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions.  He’s been the best at his position in the nation this year and Oregon needs to figure out how to defend him.

Auburn's passing offense is averaging 210 yards per game through the air while the Ducks defense is giving up 214 yards per game.  Things are even here so Auburn may be able to find some success passing the ball while the Ducks defense may have to work harder to contain Auburn’s passing game.

The leading rusher for Auburn is Newton.  Newton has attempted 242 rushes for 1409 yards with 20 touchdowns and an average of 5.8 yards per carry.  Their next leading rusher is Michael Dyer and he has had 160 rushing attempts for 950 yards, five touchdowns and an average of 5.9 yards per rush.  Then there is Onterio McCaleb, who has rushed 89 times for 763 yards with nine touchdowns and an average of 8.6 yards per rush.

The Ducks defense is allowing teams to gain just 117 yards per game while the Tigers offense is averaging 287 yards per game on the ground.  It looks like something is going to give in this game and the Ducks may be able to tame the Auburn rushing attack and keep it wrapped up.

The Tigers have some pretty decent receivers catching Newton’s passes.  Their leading receiver is Darvin Adams.  Adams has 48 catches for 909 yards, seven touchdowns and an average of 18 yards per catch.  They also have Terrell Zachery with 37 catches for 557 yards, four touchdowns and a 15 yards per catch average and Emory Blake with 29 catches for 500 yards and seven touchdowns with a 17 yards per catch average.

The Tigers like to spread the ball around when it comes to throwing the ball down the field and with so many targets Oregon’s secondary is going to have its hands full.  This is why their defensive line and linebackers will need to get some pass pressure on Newton and make sure that he doesn’t get the ball down the field to his receivers.

When the Ducks have the Ball

As mentioned, James is the clear cut leader on offense for the Ducks but quarterback Darron Thomas runs the offense and has done a very good job of doing it.  This season, Thomas has attempted 321 passes, completing 195 for 2518 yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions.  The Ducks really like what they have in Thomas and he’s been a big asset this season.

The Ducks passing offense is averaging 233 yards per game while the Tigers defense is giving up 250 yards per game through the air.  This points to the fact that the Ducks should be able to have some good success against the Tigers pass defense.

The Ducks rushing attack is led by James, who has rushed 281 times for 1682 yards with 21 touchdowns and a six yard per carry rushing average.  They also have Kenjon Barner step in for James every now and then and he’s had 80 rushing attempts for 519 yards with six touchdowns and an average per carry of six yards.

Overall, the Ducks rushing offense is averaging a whopping 303 yards per game and the Tigers defense is allowing teams to gain 111 yards per game so running the ball is going to be interesting for the Ducks in this game.  Can the Ducks rushing offense overpower what’s been a good Auburn rushing defense or will Oregon have to use the passing game to move the ball down the field?

The leading receiver for the Ducks is Jeff Maehl and he has caught 68 touchdown passes for 943 yards and 12 touchdowns and an average of 13 yards per catch.  Their next leading wide receiver is Drew Davis.  He has caught 36 passes for 410 yards with three touchdowns and an average of 11 yards per catch.

While it may not seem as if the Ducks wide receiver corps is that strong they do get the ball down the field well and can score quickly through the air.  They may need to utilize their passing game much more in this game since Auburn can shut down the run.

Analysis

This game is going to be one of the best of the year.  It puts together two teams that have spectacular offenses led by players that can win games virtually by themselves.  Having guys like Newton and James makes these teams work well but it could also make them one dimensional.  

Think what could happen if the opposing team took out the other team’s best player.  How do you think Auburn would operate with Newton shut down by the Ducks defense?  They would surely fail.  Just like if the Tigers were able to stop James.  Oregon would struggle.

You can bet that both these teams will try hard to shut down the other team’s star player and make the game much more even.

For the Ducks to win this game they have to concentrate on stopping Newton.  It’s difficult and no team has been able to do it but the  fast Ducks defense has a shot at doing that.  Since he is a dual threat, the Ducks need to be aware of what he’s doing at all times.  For his rushing capabilities, Oregon may want to keep their fastest linebacker close so that he can “spy” him and make sure that he doesn’t get too far out of the pocket or, if the linebacker reads pass, he can rush in and try to disrupt the play.

The entire Oregon defense is going to have to be aware of where Newton is at all times and need to key on him first.  They need to remember if they can cover his wide receivers well and force Newton to run the ball they can contain him and prevent him from tearing them up on the ground.

He’s a tough guy to bring down so good tackling will be important in this game.  They have to be sure that Newton doesn’t run through them and bring plenty of guys to make the tackle.

If they contain Newton they will win this game.

So what do the Ducks have to do on offense to beat the Tigers?  Despite the fact that Auburn is very tough against the run, they need to try to establish the run early to test the waters and see what they can do against their defense.  If they can’t get James going then they need to take to the air.

The Ducks offense is known for its ability to score quickly but can they score fast against the Auburn defense?  What will they do if they can’t establish James in the game?  They can take to the air which should work but they need James to help take some of the pressure off and give the defense something else to worry about.

The winner of this game will be determined early on.  If the Ducks shut Newton down early they will win.  If the Tigers do the same to James they will win.  It all comes down to shutting down the team’s best player and forcing them to try to find other ways to win the game.

Prediction

This game could be close or it could be a blowout.  It can be said that the team with the best defense will win the game but the most opportunistic offense (the one that jumps out to a big lead to start) will win this game.

Oregon has that type of offense and if they can get the lead and take care of Newton, they will win this game.

Oregon 37 Auburn 28