What's in Store for the Tom Brady-Less Patriots?

By Derek Lofland, NFL Director at Football Maniaxs

The big story of the week isn’t that of the Rodgers saga we’ve heard about since March, but rather what happened 15 offensive plays into the first quarter that sent Tom Brady to the sidelines for the rest of the season.

The Patriots now have a question mark at quarterback and the skills required for playing that position.

Let's start with Brady.

The first thing I wanted to address was whether that hit was dirty. I think the Patriots and any of their fans that have been throwing that out there should be embarrassed. Randy Moss says that it looked dirty to him, but he wasn't sure.

Bill Belichick says that he teaches his players to hit from the knee up and the shoulder down. That's all fine and good. If a player has a chance to make a tackle like that and bypasses it for the more difficult lower hit, I would agree with that. That is clearly against the rules. 

But sometimes you are blocked into a quarterback before he lets go of the ball. A quarterback is one of 11 players. Defenders have to be able to make plays against all of the opposing players.

If a defender can't do what Bernard Pollard did, then it is time to put the red jersey on the quarterbacks and don't allow them to be touched. Make them play with flags in pink skirts.

The ref didn't throw the flag on the play. The NFL did not issue a fine. It was a legal hit. The ball was in the process of leaving his hand. It wasn't even close to being a late hit or an intentional low-shot.

The man felt horrible about it as soon as it happened. You could tell that from his body language. It was an unfortunate play, but a perfectly legal one.

Where do the Patriots go from here? Is there precedence for a team losing a star starting quarterback this early in the season? These were four notable recent instances I could think of.

1991: Randall Cunningham

1990 was a very good year for Cunningham. He had the following numbers: 271 completions in 465 attempts for a 58.3 completion percentage, 3,466 yards, 30 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 91.6 QB rating. He also rushed for 942 yards and five touchdowns. While the AP named Joe Montana the MVP, Cunningham was the Pro Football Writers of America's MVP.

The Eagles went 10-6 but lost in the first round of the playoffs. You could argue that given the surrounding cast on offense, and the things Cunningham did on the ground and through the air, that he was more valuable to the Eagles than Brady is to the Patriots.

In 1991, many thought the Eagles were a favorite to take the next step. Cunningham attempted exactly four passes before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the season opener against Green Bay.

The Eagles would rely on a defense led by Reggie White that allowed the fifth-fewest points in the NFL.

When Jim McMahon was in there, they actually went 8-3. However, he missed four games and the Eagles were 1-3 in those games. The Eagles would start the season 3-5 before ending the season 7-1 and missing the playoffs with a 10-6 record. They were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to close the season.

1999: Vinny Testaverde

He had finally found his home. In 1998, he went 12-1 as the starter and helped lead the New York Jets to an unexpected AFC Championship berth. They would go on to lose to the defending champion Denver Broncos. Vinny went 259 for 421, threw for 3,256 yards, 29 touchdowns, seven picks, and a 101.6 QB rating. Vinny was named to the Pro Bowl.

The Jets were expected to compete for the title in 1999.

That changed 15 throws into the season when Testaverde tore his Achilles tendon and was out for the year. The Jets' defense remained tough all season, finishing ninth in the league. But the offense couldn’t get out of its own way and started the season 1-6.

Ray Lucas got hot in the second half of the season and the Jets salvaged an 8-8 season in a brutal division where every team finished at least 8-8. They did not qualify for the playoffs.

1999: Trent Green

The Rams weren't expected to be a Super Bowl contender, but they were expected to improve from 4-12 with rookie Torry Holt at receiver and Marshall Faulk coming over from Indy at running back. Trent Green was the high-priced free agent QB that was supposed to lead this new high-octane offense.

He had come over from Washington, where he had 278 completions in 509 attempts for 3,441 yards, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 81.8 QB rating.

So, when Green suffered a knee injury on a hit by Rodney Harrison in the preseason, people weren't too excited about a little known 28-year old quarterback from Northern Iowa that had completed exactly four NFL passes.

Kurt Warner stepped in and had the season of NFL seasons that included 325 completions in 499 attempts for 4,353 yards, 41 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 109.2 QB rating. Warner led an offense that scored a NFL best 526 points. The Rams would post a 13-3 record and win the Super Bowl.

2001: Drew Bledsoe

Drew Bledsoe made it a little longer than Brady did in 2008. Bledsoe was injured in the second game on a hit by the Jets' Mo Lewis. While it wasn’t season ending, it was a big blow to a team coming off a 5-11 season.

Bledsoe was the best player the Patriots had, or so they thought. In came a little known, second-year quarterback out of the University of Michigan named Tom Brady.

Bledsoe didn't have nearly the campaign in 2000 that Brady had in 2007. Bledsoe had been a good quarterback in the mid-'90s, but his star had started to fade. The Patriots were 5-11 the year before, and he had only 17 touchdowns to 13 interceptions and a 77.3 QB rating.

However, he had led the Patriots to a Super Bowl appearance in 1996 and had been the face of that franchise up until that point.

The rest, as we say, is history.

The Patriots went 11-3 with Tom Brady as the starter and would capture their first Super Bowl title. Bledsoe would play for the Bills the next year, and Brady would go on to win two more Super Bowls, appear in another, and become a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback. It is hard to believe that Matt Cassel could have similar results, but you never know.

The Patriots have a number of things working in their favor. They have Randy Moss. That can't be overstated. Ryan, Flacco, Russell, and Rodgers are starting for the first time this year. They don't have a weapon like that. It is a big advantage.

Moss is a scary receiver that demands double teams down the field. While Moss probably isn't going to duplicate 23 touchdowns, he probably wasn't going to do that with Brady.

He should still have a strong year. Welker is probably the one that is hurt more. He was often the third or fourth read for Brady, running free from the slot. Cassel isn't going to be able to make those quick reads. Welker will still get catches as a featured guy, but not like he did with Brady. Watson and Gaffney give Cassel more NFL quality weapons.

The Patriots have a strong staple of running backs. Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and LaMont Jordan all can carry the load this year.

The offensive line is solid. While it got a little beat up by the NY Giants last year in the Super Bowl, it isn't like the Patriots have regressed into a 2004 version of the Houston Texans.

They will be able to run and pass block. Matt Cassel does not have to win the games himself. He doesn't need to be Tom Brady. He needs to give them some good plays, but most importantly, he needs to not make a lot of bad ones.

When an injury like this happens, most teams eventually adjust. The key is those first five or six ball games.

The Eagles and Jets started off 3-5 and 1-6 after their injuries. They eventually salvaged their season, but not in time to make the playoffs. The key for the Patriots is not to go into a five-game nosedive before they pull out of this.

I expect the offense to score anywhere between 350 and 390 points in 2008. That would put them between the 10-15th-ranked offenses, based on last year’s leaguewide scoring numbers.

The following teams made the playoffs last year scoring under 400 points.

Pittsburgh (393), Seattle (393), New York Giants (373), Tampa Bay (334), Washington (334), and Tennessee (301).

What those teams had in common was strong defenses that didn't yield a lot of points. The Steelers ranked second in the NFL in scoring defense. The New York Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks. Seattle was sixth in scoring defense and allowed the fewest passing touchdowns.

The Bucs had the third-ranked scoring defense, second-ranked yardage defense, and the first-ranked pass defense. The Titans had a great season when Albert Haynesworth was healthy.

If you remove the three games he didn't play, the Titans allowed an average of 15.3 points per game, which would have led the NFL.

The challenge for the Patriots will be to not allow a lot of points this season and force turnovers that give their offense a shorter field. It was expected that this was going to be a rebuilding year for the defense, and that the offense would have to carry the team. There are going to be a lot of games where they score 14 to 21 points.

They need to allow 10 points on those occasions. They need to get after the quarterback. They need to stop the run. They won't have the benefit of an offense that made other teams one-dimensional. They will have to stand on their own two feet and carry this team.

Bill Belichick is the perfect coach to do this. His background is defense. He was the defensive coordinator for the NY Giants under Bill Parcells. He helped turn the Cleveland Browns into a nasty defense in 1994. He was the defensive coordinator for the Patriots in 1996 when they made it to the Super Bowl.

He knows how to win with smash-mouth football and defensive strength. He can coach that way this season.

The schedule also sets up well for them. They should be able to beat Miami (2), Oakland, St. Louis, and San Fran. They can't lose to any of those teams if they want to be playing January football.

If the Patriots win those easier games, that gets them to six wins. They probably aren't going to beat the Chargers, Steelers, or Colts. That means, to compete for the playoffs, they will need to get four wins from the following teams: Buffalo (2), NY Jets (2), Denver, Arizona, and Seattle. That is by no means an impossibility.

The Patriots have to make sure that the following three things don't happen.

1) No taking bad teams for granted.

If they lose to St. Louis or San Fran, they are going to have to make up for it with a win against a harder team. Losing Tom Brady got rid of their margin for error. "The Hood" is the best in the business at taking it one game at a time. The Patriots should be fine there.

2) Play well at home.

If the Patriots go 4-4 or 5-3 at home this season, they won't have much of a chance. They need to protect the home turf to take pressure off Cassel when he travels on the road. If they can go 7-1 or 8-0 at home, that will help matters.

3) No big injuries to any other players.

This is something they can't control. Sometimes it just isn't your year. I saw it firsthand with the Packers in 2005. Sure, they didn’t lose Favre, but that team was down to their fifth running back and sixth or seventh receiver.

The Patriots can't afford to have Moss miss six games, Welker miss four games, and Seymour miss six games. They lost one of their greatest weapons, and they have to keep all the other solid veterans healthy.

If they can do those things, they should get to 9-7 or 10-6. That will put them in the hunt to either win what has been a weak division in years’ past or the wild card. If they can do that, anything is possible in a 60-minute, single-elimination playoff game.

The AFC is in a state of flux now. Manning is coming back from knee surgery. Jacksonville has huge offensive line and receiver-injury problems. The Chargers lost "Lights Out" for the year.

Ben Roethlisberger is already having problems with his shoulder. The Jets have a lot of chemistry issues to work out with so many players. Their season is relying in large part on a 39-year-old ironman. The Patriots can overcome this injury.

The loss of Tom Brady is a big one for the NFL. It's an even bigger one for the Patriots. Other than Moss, there isn't another player on that roster that is even close to the level of importance to that offense as Tom Brady. You can't measure the things he does that don't show up in the box score. His leadership is a huge intangible Brady brings to that team.

However, after these initial days of analyzing and speculating, the one thing we learn is that the games go on. I'll have something interesting to write about next week. If the Patriots don't compete, there are 31 other teams to talk about.

The NFL isn't going to cancel its season with Brady gone, and the Patriots are going to have to play 15 more games.

No one is going to take it easy on the Patriots because Brady isn't there. In fact, teams are going to be looking to knock the Patriots out, especially after the way the Patriots embarrassed teams last year. It is revenge time for the 52-7 wins the Patriots had to start last season. 

This may be the best shot to beat the Patriots, and nobody is going to miss an opportunity like that if they can help it.

The Patriots have to remember that the Packers were willing to get rid of the second-MVP in the NFL to go with a kid that had 59 career passes. The Falcons and Ravens are both starting rookie quarterbacks. While it isn't ideal that Matt Cassel comes into this situation with so little on his plate, other teams are going that route right now and are expecting to not only win games, but make the playoffs.

This has happened to teams in the past and some have come out okay. The Patriots can look to their own past for that. I think the Patriots will be fine. They should stay in the playoff hunt until the very end, and if things go their way, they could very easily make it.

This injury, while unfortunate, is going to make the AFC as interesting as ever.

What are your thoughts on the Patriots injury? 1-15 this season, losing record, playoff contender, or Super Bowl contender?