College Football Picks Week Three, Part Three: Mitch’s Picks

It’s kind of ironic that I like so many road teams this week, as I’m on the road myself and not minding it at all.

I believe that, while the road can be a daunting journey and the undoing of many a good team, the great teams often overcome the adversity and the teams who are clearly the more talented can overcome that and then some in order to cement a win and, more importantly, a smooth cover.

While I often shy away from taking so many road teams, I really feel taking them is warranted this week, as these teams have all proven the ability to get it done against the spread anywhere. Of course, you know I’m going to break it all out for you anyway, so instead of talking about it, here it is.

Rutgers -5 vs. North Carolina (Thursday 9/11/08, 7:30 EST) 1 Unit

I don’t think there is anyone out there who can question UNC head coach Butch Davis’ ability as a recruiter. He was the recruiting coordinator for Jimmy Johnson at Miami and then later left behind a future NFL Pro Bowl roster when he departed the Hurricanes after his stint as their head coach. As good as Davis is as a recruiter, as many questions can be raised about his on-field coaching ability and sideline decision making.

For Rutgers, Greg Schiano has taken a program that in its best years was considered an also-ran and has brought them to national prominence.

Ironically, Schiano was the defensive coordinator for Davis at Miami, and this may be seen as a battle of student against teacher. In this case, I believe it will be the student taking the teacher to school. As much as I like and appreciate the talent that Butch is bringing into Chapel Hill, I just don’t think they’re ready to compete with the likes of a Rutgers on the road on a Thursday night.

While the Tar Heels were anything but impressive at home against McNeese St., just squeaking out a win, they are also just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a straight-up win, 2-5 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record, and 0-5 against the number in their last five tries against the Big East Conference.

Rutgers, on the other hand, is 10-2-1 against the spread in its last 13 non-conference games, 10-4 in its last 14 against the spread after the last 14 times it didn’t cover, and 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 games against teams with a winning record.

I think it is also important to note that the Scarlet Knights play extremely well on Thursday nights, going 4-1 against the spread. They could play this one on a Tuesday afternoon, though, and I’d still be on Rutgers.

Kansas +3½ at South Florida (Friday 9/12/08, 8 EST) 1 Unit

Here we have two teams that were just great stories last year. Mark Mangino’s Kansas Jayhawks had a dream 12-win season that on many levels seemed to have come out of nowhere. Jim Leavitt’s program arrived on the national stage and got as high as No. 2 in the rankings, while just a few short years ago the program didn’t even exist.

It is only fair and deserving that these two teams get the stage all to themselves in a weekend when such accomplishments could have easily gotten lost in the shuffle of a few of the more mainstream prominent matchups.

Both teams return a lot of the keys, as Kansas returns 15 starters and USF returns quarterback Matt Grothe and the player who led the nation in tackles for a loss, George Selvie. This game looks to be a pretty tight one, and, in that case, I am going to take the points, which are getting scarcer with every keystroke of writing this.

The Bulls didn’t impress me last week, blowing a 14-point lead before defeating Central Florida in overtime. While the Bulls are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 home games, they are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games when playing a team with a winning record.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas is 5-0 against the spread in its last five road games, 6-1 against the spread in its last seven non-conference games, and 6-1 against the spread vs. teams with a winning record.

Like I said, I think this is close and a game that could go either way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kansas won outright, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the extra half-point we’re getting comes into play.

See the rest of Mitch's third installment of his Week 3 picks at The College Football Place.