NFL Draft 2011: How Will Underclassmen's Teams Fare With(out) Them Next Season?
Our long national nightmare is officially over: Andrew Luck is returning to Stanford.
Even without Luck in the mix, the 2011 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a bonanza of talented underclassmen, with the occasional senior sprinkled in between.
From A.J. Green and Ryan Mallett to Mark Ingram and Cam Newton (whoops! all SEC guys), there's no shortage of prodigiously gifted youngsters who are expected to take their talents to the next level this summer.
This will especially be this case this year, as the 2011 draft may be the last time newly-minted draftees and their agents can demand exhorbitant contracts with the prospect of a rookie cap under a new collective bargaining agreement.
The story that always gets lost, of course, how the teams that these players are abandoning will fare in their absence, without the shining stars that led them to spectacular seasons and convincing bowl wins.
With that in mind, let's have a gander at some football programs who are primed to suffer dramatically without their best underclassmen in 2011.
Notre Dame: Kyle Rudolph and Michael Floyd
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It's not often that teams suffer dramatically from the loss of pass-catching talent to the NFL.
However, in Notre Dame's case, when it's Kyle Rudolph and Michael Floyd who are on the fence for the draft, the difference could be quite dramatic.
Rudolph and Floyd are both huge targets for Irish quarterbacks Tommy Rees and Dayne Crist, and both will be sorely missed should they make the jump as juniors into the pros.
If those two leave, it might mean stagnancy in South Bend for Notre Dame in 2011, even after a promising finish to the 2010 season punctuated by a win over Miami in the Sun Bowl.
Auburn: Cam Newton and Nick Fairley
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Perhaps no team would suffer a greater decline from the loss of its star underclassmen than Auburn.
Of course, any such discussion of the Tigers must begin with Cam Newton, the All-Everything quarterback who pretty much single-handedly willed his team to a 13-0 record, including a perfect run through the gauntlet of the SEC.
There's little to say about Newton that hasn't already been said, but it's just tough not to fawn over how unbelievably good he was for Gene Chizik's club this year, accounting for nearly 50 touchdowns while leading the SEC in rushing...as a quarterback!
However, I would be remiss if I didn't give plenty of credit to Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who essentially did for the team's defense what Newton did for its offense.
Fairley was, in a phrase, a one-man wrecking crew, tearing his way through opposing offensive lines to pile up 55 tackles and 11 sacks.
Should Newton and Fairley decide to jump to the NFL Draft, as both are potentially top-10 picks, the Tigers would likely be in store for a precipitous decline from national title contenders to maybe a third or fourth place finish in the SEC West.
Alabama: Mark Ingram, Julio Jones and Marcell Dareus
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Auburn's biggest rival could have some issues keeping up its run of success next year as well.
Alabama coach Nick Saban announced today that three of his top players–running back and Heisman winner Mark Ingram, wide-receiver Julio Jones and defensive lineman Marcell Dareus–will be forfeiting their senior eligibility and entering the 2011 NFL Draft.
The 2011 season figured to feature yet another drop in play by the Crimson Tide, particularly without Greg McElroy at quarterback.
Having the likes of Ingram and Jones around figured to give the team some offensive continuity, while Dareus' presence on the defensive line would have helped to maintain 'Bama's dominance on the other side of the ball.
Now, Saban will have to figure out how to plug some very big holes left behind by some eminently talented players.
In other words, a 10-3 season would be incredible for the Tide under their prospective circumstances.
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.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Wisconsin: John Clay
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Like the three Alabamans, Wisconsin running back John Clay announced on Friday that he would be skipping his senior season for a shot at the NFL.
Clay figures to go in the first two rounds or so, if not earlier, as he is essentially the prototypical NFL power back, at 6'1" and 255 pounds.
In and of itself, the loss of Clay doesn't figure to be that significant for the Badgers, considering the successes of freshman James White and sophomore Montee Ball in Clay's absence in 2010.
The bigger losses for the Badgers will come from players like Scott Tolzien, Gabe Carimi and Lance Kendricks, though they'll be heading to the NFL as a result of exhausting their eligibility rather than by forfeiting a year in college.
Hence, any decline in Madison will likely be due more to the departure of seniors than that of juniors.
Missouri: Blaine Gabbert
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One team that will sorely miss its early-departing quarterback is Missouri.
The emergence of Blaine Gabbert this season was one of the prime reasons for the Tigers' making a run at the Big 12 title in 2010.
Without Gabbert under center, Mizzou coach Gary Pinkel will likely hand the reigns of the team off to sophomore-to-be James Franklin, who threw all of 14 passes during his first season in Columbia.
As such, replicating this year's 10-win season may be rather difficult for the Tigers, even in a shrunken Big 12.
Arkansas: Ryan Mallett
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While we're on the topic of quarterbacks, why not have a look-see at Arkansas, a team that will be without star signal-caller Ryan Mallett next year?
With Andrew Luck headed back to school, Mallett will now likely grade out as the top quarterback in the 2011 draft, and perhaps even as the #1 overall pick.
Mallett was arguably the most important catalyst behind the Razorbacks' Sugar Bowl season, as he regularly displayed his unreal arm strength to the tune of 3,869 yards and 32 touchdowns.
Good luck to Bobby Petrino and company grooming junior-to-be Tyler Wilson to fill Mallett's sizable shoes next year.
They'll need it.
USC: Tyron Smith and Jurrell Casey
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Most casual football fans would tend to think that teams can withstand the loss of linemen than that of quarterbacks.
In USC's case, that notion may prove to be patently false.
The Trojans' two biggest junior draftees–Tyron Smith and Jurrell Casey–both play in the trenches in LA, Smith on the offensive and Casey on the defensive line.
Smith is an absolute beast, at 6'5" and 280 pounds, who figures to be an excellent left tackle in the NFL.
Casey, on the other hand, is a bit stubby for a nose tackle, but has the strength, speed and tenacity to be an absolute terror on the interior.
Don't expect the Trojans' struggles to subside much in 2011 now that two of their best underclassmen are off to make money (transparently).
UCLA: Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore
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Across town, the UCLA Bruins have some issues of their own to take of in terms of replacing underclassmen.
With the talented tandem of linebacker Akeem Ayers and safety Rahim Moore roaming the field, Rick Neuheisel's club still struggled defensively, placing 86th nationally in scoring defense and 95th in total defense.
Without those two, things only figure to get worse.
Granted, the likes of Jordan Zumwalt and Dietrich Riley appear to be capable replacements, with plenty of NFL-level talent in their own right.
However, UCLA's defense only figures to get younger, which could result in even worse performance in what, then, would be Neuheisel's last year at the helm in Westwood.
Georgia: A.J. Green and Justin Houston
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Yes, there's no doubt that losing A.J. Green and Justin Houston to the 2011 NFL Draft would be huge blows to the Georgia Bulldogs.
After all, Green is perhaps the most talented wide-receiver in school history while Houston is an absolute ball-hawk from the linebacker position.
The bigger issue, really, is that Georgia can hardly afford any personnel losses whatsoever.
That is, if Mark Richt is to stick around much longer in Athens.
Needless to say, few fans of the program are pleased with their team finishing with a 6-7 record in 2010, and the departures of Green and Houston don't make the prospect of improvement any easier.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
