Fantasy Baseball: Breaking Down the Cleveland Indians' Bullpen

The Closer: Chris Perez

With Kerry Wood spending time on the DL before getting shipped to New York, Perez was given ample opportunities to show just how productive he could be as the Indians’ closer.  He went 23-for-27 in save chances while posting a sterling 1.71 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Perez posted a strikeout rate of 8.71, but there is plenty of room for improvement there.  In 2009, splitting time between the Cardinals and Indians, he posted a K/9 of 10.74.  Over his minor league career he sat at 12.02.  Armed with a fastball that averaged nearly 95 mph in 2010, there is certainly optimism that he can strike out well over a batter per inning.

Before we get too excited, there are numerous reasons to think that he could regress overall.  First of all, he benefited from a lot of luck, with a .236 BABIP and 86.1 percent strand rate.  Granted, relievers have a better chance of maintaining such luck metrics, but it’s hard to imagine him being able to repeat them.

A second concern is his control.  He posted a BB/9 of 4.00 last season, and a 4.29 over the span of his career.  While that would be passable, he had a 5.97 mark in his minor league career.  That tells us there is a rather big risk that he will struggle finding the strike zone at some point.  If you couple that with an increased BABIP and a solid WHIP, though, it is certainly not a lock.

What he does have going for him is the lack of true competition for the job.  That makes him a solid mid-level closer, but a lot needs to go right for him to be considered one of the elite.

Next in Line: Rafael Perez

Once a good strikeout option (10.14 K/9 in 2008), he has struggled mightily the past two years with 6.00 and 5.31 marks.  Not overpowering (90.7 mph average fastball in ’10), it is interesting to note that he has thrown his fastball less than 60 percent of the time since making his major league debut.  In fact, in 2010 he threw it just 33.2 percent of the time (he was at 59.2 percent in an awful 2009).

Draw whatever conclusion you want, but a closer needs to trust his stuff and go after hitters.  If a pitcher shies away from his fastball to that extent, he could be flirting with disaster.

While he was solid overall in 2010 (3.25 ERA), he still posted an usable 1.59 WHIP.  There was some poor luck (.337 BABIP), but with a .319 career BABIP, a huge improvement is no lock.

He’s unlikely to overtake Chris Perez as the team’s closer, and even if he does, he is going to be a low-end option at best, unless his strikeout rate improves dramatically.  If you are looking for a sleeper source of saves, you are better off looking elsewhere.

The Rest: Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Jensen Lewis, Frank Hermann, Aaron Laffey

Laffey will likely be a swingman, with the ability to go multiple innings if necessary.  Sipp probably has the most potential, with a career minor league K/9 of 11.73 (and a 10.22 in 116 major league appearances).  What he needs to do is improve upon his walk rate (5.59 in the majors) and there is a good chance he does given his 3.10 career minor league mark. 

Sipp is certainly a big-time sleeper to leap frog Rafael Perez and move into a setup role and sleeper source of saves.  Smith has had success in the major leagues (3.58 career ERA), but he is more of a right-handed specialist and nothing more.

Conclusion

Chris Perez is entrenched as the closer, though there are certainly flaws that fantasy owners need to be concerned about.  If he does slip up, Rafael Perez may be the first option, but do not overlook Sipp.  He certainly has the skills, and if you are in a league that utilizes middle relievers, he’s a great sleeper to target.

What are your thoughts of the Indians' bullpen?  Do you think Chris Perez will hold down the job all season long?  Do you see Sipp as having any potential value?

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Make sure to check out our previous Breaking Down The Bullpen's:

• Boston Red Sox

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