Rose Bowl 2011 Predictions: 10 Reasons TCU Will Shock Wisconsin
Rose Bowl predictions are a tall order, given that TCU is such an unknown commodity. Aside from a nine-point victory over Oregon State in September and a 45-10 thumping of regional rival Baylor, the Horned Frogs didn't play a school from one of the so-called BCS conferences in 2010.
And since Wisconsin was the co-champion of the Big Ten, they are going to be a much tougher test than Baylor and Oregon State were back in the early part of the season.
But TCU is one of only three teams in the nation to still be undefeated so they are confident they can win.
Can the Horned Frogs pull off the upset and give the Mountain West Conference their first ever Rose Bowl win?
Here are 10 reasons why we say yes.
No. 10: Underdog Is Always Dangerous
1 of 10
The Horned Frogs are certainly coming into the 2011 Rose Bowl with a chip on their shoulder. Although they are three-point favorites and have a better record, the fact that they, a Mountain West school, will be taking on Wisconsin, a member of the fabled Big Ten, they have plenty of skeptics.
Don't think that Gary Patterson has let his players overlook that fact.
You can be sure, the "no one wants us here, let's prove we belong" slogan has been sung loudly first in Ft. Worth, and currently in Pasadena.
No. 9: Purple and Silver Rose Bowl Stadium?
2 of 10
Aside from the fact that Fort Worth residents have a shorter trip to Pasadena than those in Madison, isn't there a chance that the Horned Frogs fans out-cheer the Badgers fans on New Year's Day?
Maybe there will be more people donning that silver and purple than the red and white. Maybe there won't. And the Badger fans, who have waited more than a decade for another trip to the Rose Bowl, are just as eager for a win.
But for the fans of a program that has never been to the "Granddaddy of them all" this will certainly be a special day.
And TCU's players have to be thinking about putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season that would earn them an unquestioned spot as the greatest team in school history.
No. 8: Punt Coverage
3 of 10
Wisconsin might have finished the 2010 season undefeated had it not been for one special teams slip-up earlier this season.
Behind 10-6 in the second quarter at Michigan State, the Spartans' Keshawn Martin returned a punt 74 yards for a touchdown to take the lead. The Badgers never reclaimed the lead and lost that game 34-24, their only defeat of the year.
TCU's special teams haven't been flawless but they have not allowed a single return for a score this year, and in a closely contested, evenly matched game, special teams is often the difference.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 7: Victory over Air Force
4 of 10
Wisconsin's running game is clearly one of the best in the nation: they have three tremendous backs in John Clay, James White and Montee Ball, each of whom has double-digit touchdowns this year. In all the Badgers have rushed for just under 3,000 yards in only 12 games.
They're tough to stop, but this year, TCU has already suffocated one of the nation's top running offense.
Back in October, they allowed only one first quarter score against Air Force in 38-7 victory.
The Falcons finished 2010 ranked No. 2 in rushing yards per game. Their 184 yards against TCU were far below their season average of 306 yards per game.
No. 6: Last Year's Trip to the Fiesta Bowl
5 of 10
Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema has led the Badgers to bowl appearances in each of his five seasons as head coach, so his players all have postseason experience. But this is the first BCS bowl for Bielema and the entire Badger roster.
The Horned Frogs also have a long streak of bowl appearances: the Rose Bowl is their sixth straight bowl trip. And although it resulted in a 17-10 loss to Boise State, their visit to last season's Fiesta Bowl gave Patterson and most of his roster a big-game experience that had to help prepare them for their game over Wisconsin.
It might be slight, but that's an edge for TCU.
No. 5: 3rd Down Defense
6 of 10
Overall yards allowed and points per game obviously determine the strength and value of a defense. And in those categories, no team is better than TCU. But in another key defensive statistic, the Horned Frogs are equally proficient.
This season, the Horned Frogs have allowed teams to convert on third down less than 22 percent of the time.
Considering how good the TCU run defense is, and the fact that the Badgers will likely be running a lot on first and second down, the game could hinge on third down and whether or not Wisconsin can convert.
TCU has been excellent at stopping teams on that most critical of downs. In their last two games, they've allowed only three conversions in 25 third down tries.
No. 4: Excellence Away from Ft. Worth
7 of 10
TCU has been arguably better away from their home stadium than they have at Amon Carter Stadium.
Aside from a fairly close showdown in Dallas against SMU, the Horned Frogs have blown away all of their opponents on the road.
They shut out Colorado State 27-0 in Fort Collins, trounced UNLV 48-6 at Sam Boyd Stadium and did the same to New Mexico in the regular season finale in Albuquerque, 66-17.
And in their biggest showdown of the season, at fifth-ranked Utah, TCU sent the Salt Lake City faithful home with a 47-7 loss.
The Badgers haven't been quite as good away from Camp Randel. Their lone loss came at Michigan State and they barely escaped Kinnick Stadium with a 31-30 win over Iowa. Even against Michigan, at the Big House, the Badgers needed a 17-point fourth quarter to close out the Wolverines.
On a neutral site, the Horned Frogs might feel a tad more comfortable.
No. 3: Tejay Johnson
8 of 10
The Badgers have a pair of AP All-Americans on their roster: guard John Moffitt and tackle Gabe Carimi.
But the Horned Frogs will have the only All-American defender on their roster when the Rose Bowl kicks off.
Safety Tejay Johnson is enormous (6'2") and with a 4.5 40-yard-dash he has the speed to hang with any one of the Badger wide receivers that come over the middle. More importantly, his size will be a huge asset in stopping the Wisconsin running game. He should be able to bring down those big ball-carriers.
And if one of Scott Tolzien's passes roves near Johnson, he is likely to snag it—the senior was recruited to Fort Worth as a wide receiver.
No. 2: Horned Frogs Backfield
9 of 10
They may not have a LaDainian Tomlinson, but the TCU backfield is very good. And although it hasn't gotten as much publicity, their running game might be just as good as their opponent's in the 2011 Rose Bowl.
Like Wisconsin, the Horned Frogs have three excellent backs who have all had tremendous individual performances this year.
Sophomore Ed Wesley was the team's leading rusher, but freshman Waymon James (23 carries, 102 yards) and sophomore Matthew Tucker (22 carries, 131 yards) were the backs who led the Horned Frogs to a critical win over San Diego State back in November.
TCU finished the season with a whopping 261 yards rushing per game, and since the Badgers have surrendered 132 yards per game on the ground, they will have a tough task before them in the Rose Bowl.
No. 1: Andy Dalton
10 of 10
The Badgers have a fine senior quarterback at the helm. Ryan Tolzien has stepped up big for Wisconsin several times this year.
But the Horned Frogs have a slight edge at quarterback in their senior signal-caller, Andy Dalton. Tolzien did win the Johnny Unitas award, but consider this one fact, all three of his multi-touchdown games (Austin Peay, Northwestern, Indiana) came in enormous blowouts.
Dalton is a four-year starter and has been a leader of that team since stepping in during the 2007 season. And he turned in perhaps his best game of the season in the team's close victory over San Diego State.
With pro scouts watching, expect Dalton to churn out a great finale.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
