NFL Playoffs 2010: If The System's Broke, Let's Fix It

The NFL Playoffs are less than two weeks ago. I'm sure that all pro football fans are excited about some of the potential divisional round matchups:

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears—An enduring, old school divisional rivalry.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts—A great defense tries to shut down a great quarterback.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (or St. Louis Rams)—The defending Super Bowl Champions, playing great football right now, travel to the champs of the NFC West who are great…er, good, er, not as bad as Carolina.

Okay, that third game does not get the juices flowing so much, except in protest. How can either a 7-9 Seattle or an 8-8 St. Louis not only qualify for the playoffs, but also host a game? The system must be broken. Will the NFL kingdom survive?

Well, the prospect of seeing either Seattle or St. Louis host at least one playoff game doesn’t look right to this fan either, but let’s examine the issue before deciding whether to: a) let cooler heads prevail and do nothing, b) make sweeping changes or c) come up with a minor tweak to the system.

A) Don’t Fix What Ain’t Broken

Did you know that the quote, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” was attributed in Bert Lance, director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for President Jimmy Carter in 1977. Of course, Lance was not referring to the NFL playoffs, which at the time had four teams in each conference qualify—the three division winners and one wild card team. (Teams also played a 14-game regular season schedule back then; they did wear non-leather helmets.)

In 1990, the NFL adopted a slightly different system, which is still used today. The four division winners plus two wild card teams compete in the conference playoffs for a spot in the Super Bowl. The top two teams in each conference earn first-round byes, and the next two division winners host the wild card teams, regardless of their respective records.

This year could feature a 7-9 Seattle team hosting a 12-4 Saints team. That just does not look right, or seem fair.

Advocates of not changing the system will point to the need for having meaningful regular season division races. We need those intra-divisional rivalries to stay strong, and why shouldn’t fans of a division winner be rewarded with a home playoff game?

Fans of the status quo would say that the system ain’t broke, the NFL’s doing just fine, and wasn’t it just two years ago that a mediocre Arizona Cardinals team was just seconds and a sideline tightrope away from winning the Super Bowl?

By the way, historians may recall that something was broken in Bert Lance’s personal budget management, and he was forced to resign his position amid allegations of ethical violations on September 21, 1977. Just four months later, the Dallas Cowboys—the No. 1 seed in the NFC—crushed the Denver Broncos, the AFC’s top seed, 27-10 in Super Bowl XII.

B) The System Is Broke—Fix It!

On the other side of the issue are those who just can’t see why a 7-9 team or even an 8-8 team should make the playoffs when at least one 10-6 team won’t be invited to the dance.

Despite their erratic performances of late, aren’t the Giants (or the Packers, if they lose to the Bears and the Giants win) much better teams than the Rams or Seahawks? Does the NFL want to reward mediocrity just for the sake of divisional rivalries?

There is merit to this argument as well.

C) The System’s Just A Little Torn—Let’s Patch It

So, how do we honor divisional rivalries and races yet still make the system as equitable as possible? It’s really not all that complicated.

The NFL is not about to contract (did you hear that word, LeBron?) its playoff system, and I think that most fans would not like to see the NFL expand to 14 or 16 playoff teams, so let’s keep the playoff field to 12 teams.

Since we have four divisions in each conference, I also have no problem with seeing each of the division winners make the playoffs; it seems that they (and their fans) earned that right over the 16 games. Sure, occasionally you get a mediocre divisional winner, but I do think that the division races should be honored.

From here, the patch is pretty simple. Teams with the top two records will still earn byes, but after that, the division winner should not automatically get to host their wild card opponent.

Projecting Green Bay and St. Louis to win their games in Week 17 to make the playoffs, Atlanta (13-3, the No. 1) and Philadelphia (12-4, the No. 2) would earn byes, as they would now. The Saints (12-4) would host the Rams (8-8) in the 3-6 game, and the Bears (11-5) would host the Packers (10-6) in the 4-5 game.

The Giants (10-6) and the Bucs (9-7) would still be left out of the playoffs in this system. Would their exclusions be so unfair, as they had ample opportunity to either win their division or secure one of the two wild card slots? I don’t think so.

Projecting no upsets in the AFC in Week 17, the Patriots (14-2) and the Steelers (12-4) would still earn byes. The Ravens (12-4) would host the 10-6 Colts in the 3-6 game and the Jets (11-5 with a better intra-conference record) would earn the right to host the 11-5 Chiefs in the 4-5 game.

The above is not a dramatic change, but it would add some equability to a playoff system that is not completely broken—just slightly unfair. Even Bert Lance—wherever he is— may agree.

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