Thinking Outside The Box To Predict A Sprint Cup Champion

As the chase commences at New Hampshire on Sunday, everyone wants to know as to who is going to take home the Sprint Cup Trophy and all the money, fame, and glory that accompanies it when the series visits Homestead in nine weeks? 

Based on what we've seen in the first 26 events, the three favorites are obviously the numbers 18, 99, and 48. Each driver has got something to prove.

Kyle Busch is trying to show all the haters that his eight wins thus far in 2008 are no fluke and maybe earn a few more fans. There is not a more polarizing figure in NASCAR today (which is a great thing), and I'm sure taking home a championship will tip the balance a little bit more to the Rowdy supporters.

Carl Edwards wins races with relative ease, but outside of a third place points finish in 2005, has yet to be a serious championship contender in his brief stint in the Sprint Cup ranks.

Jimmie Johnson is attempting to do something only Cale Yarborough has accomplished by winning back-to-back-to-back titles, and simultaneously cementing himself as one of the all-time greats at the tender age of 33. 

Now I know I am supposed to be impartial, but let's just say I don't want to see Cheating Chad Knaus, Rick the (you fill in the obscenity) Hendrick, Jimmie, and his incredibly hot wife celebrating another championship.

I'd love to see Cousin Carl or Shrub take home a championship just because both have proven themselves worthy of a title this season, and while along with JJ they have dominated the regular season, this is a whole new ballgame. 

Everyone is essentially back to zero points, and regardless of what you did from February to Labor Day, it doesn't mean a whole lot entering New Hampshire.

Obviously, the 18, 99, and 48 have established themselves as the favorites, but just as we saw with the New York Giants in the NFL playoffs this past January, often an underdog will rise to the occasion and shock the world. And that is what I predict will happen during this 10-race run to Homestead the third weekend in November. 

Of the four champions under the Chase format, Jimmie Johnson entered the final 10 races second in 2006 and fourth a year ago (before wins are added to the equation), Tony Stewart first in 2005, and Kurt Busch seventh in 2004.

Obviously, the odds seem to be stacked against guys like Kenseth, Bowyer, or Harvick taking home the crown, but that doesn't mean they are incapable of the feat. The four, three-car "super" teams represented in the Chase (RCR, Hendrick, Roush, and JGR) are fairly equal on paper.

Busch, Johnson, and Edwards may have stood out to this point of the season, but over a short 10-race sprint, one bad day can change everything and open this championship battle up.

Luck means everything now, and it is critical for each team and driver to avoid that catastrophic DNF or time behind the wall.

Judging by the occasional recklessness of Busch and Edwards, I wouldn't put it past either to get themselves into trouble over the final ten weeks. With Johnson, it will probably take someone else's stupidity, Talladega, or a mechanical failure to put him behind the eight-ball.

Anyways, enough blabbering. Here is how I am predicting the top 12 to look at the checkered flag of the Ford 400, with my surprise championship pick at the bottom.


12. Kevin Harvick (#29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevy)
Harvick is not particularly known for prowess on the mile-and-half tracks that make up exactly half of the Chase, and like was the case in 2007, will likely spell a finish in the bottom half of the top 12.  However, the 29-team should at least provide strong runs at Dover, Martinsville, Talladega, and Phoenix, and with a few breaks along the way, may put Kevin in a position to contend for the title. 

11. Jeff Gordon (#24 DuPont Chevy)
In 2008, the 24-team has been like a box of chocolates: you never know what you are going to get. Some weeks, it looks as if Letarte spent the week golfing instead of preparing a setup. Other weeks, we see the same team that contended for Gordon's fifth title a year ago. The intermediates will make or break, most likely break, this team's season. 

10. Denny Hamlin (#11 FedEx Toyota)
Hamlin brought up the caboose in the Chase a season ago, and unlike his teammates, does not seem to have that killer instinct to be a serious title contender. Last year, he was doomed by bad luck and poor runs at the intermediate tracks, and while he should do great at the flat tracks, there are only three of those in the Chase. Look for Denny and the 11 team to once again float around 8th-12th place. 

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (#88 Mountain Dew AMP/National Guard Chevy)
This prediction will probably draw the boos from Junior Nation, but after a strong start to the season, Earnhardt has not been overly impressive as of late, although he did have a strong run at Richmond yesterday. Plus, I do not know if I would trust Tony Eury Jr. to be making championship critical decisions down the stretch after some of the boneheaded moves he has made this season, seemingly costing his driver. 

8. Jeff Burton (#31 AT&T Chevy)
Just to tick off NASCAR and Sprint, I'd love to see Jeff Burton take home the championship. Not to mention the guy is a class act and heck of a driver. But let's face the facts: after this team was so consistent in the first half of the season, not only finishing races but finishing them in or near the top 10, they have come back to Earth in recent weeks. It will be hard to shake the funk the 31 team has been in for some time now, but if anyone is capable, it is Burton. 

7. Clint Bowyer (#07 Jack Daniel's/DirecTV Chevy)
The 2007 Chase was Bowyer's coming out party.  After barely making it in, he won at New Hampshire and finished the season in 3rd.  Can he do it again?  It will be difficult, seeing how the 07 bunch has been nothing short of average the past three or four months, but they do have the confidence built as a result of last season's strong run to carry them to another solid conclusion to the schedule. 

6. Matt Kenseth (#17 DeWalt Tools Ford)
This campaign by Kenseth reminds me of his 2005 season, where a poor start almost cost the team a shot at a Chase berth. In a season that has been more about Matt getting acclimated to new crew chief Chip Bolin than anything else, it's hard to peg this team as a Chase frontrunner.  Certainly they are one of the series' best teams, but this has been a down year by their standards. But don't be surprised, in true Matt Kenseth fashion, if the 17 sneaks up a few people. 

5. Jimmie Johnson (#48 Lowe's Chevy)
Like in any other sport, the champion has a big bullseye on his back. Now people aren't going to be running over the 48 car each Sunday, but they will race him a little bit harder knowing to be the champion, you first must beat him. Judging by the two consecutive wins, Johnson and Knaus are ready to become the first three-time defending champions since '78.  But will lady luck be on their side once again this fall? 

4. Greg Biffle (#16 3M Ford)
Every year for the past three years, I have predicted big things for Biffle and company, and only this year have they lived up to those expectations. If you drive for Roush-Fenway, you have to run well at the mile and a half tracks, and Biffle certainly is in the top 5 or 10 every time the series visits one of these facilities. That alone should allow Greg to be a contender, but can they avoid the bad luck that plagued them for much of the season? 

3. Carl Edwards (#99 Office Depot Ford)
Edwards, like Biffle, has to be licking his chops with five intermediate tracks, plus Dover, over the final 10 events. What determines his final position will be his performances at Loudon, Martinsville, and Talladega, tracks which have tripped up the 99 team in the past. Carl has solid leadership from Bob Osborne on the pit box, and he certainly won't cost the team a shot at a championship. This team bears close watching. 

2. Kyle Busch (#18 M&M/Mars Toyota)
There are two schools of thought here: either you want to see Busch give a figurative middle finger to all of his detractors, or you want to see him finish the Chase in 12th spot with his tail between his legs. Kyle has had a breakout season, but to many people, it will be all for naught if he doesn't take home the crown. He could break under the enormous pressure, but the kid is just too good. At worse, he finishes third or fourth. 

1. Tony Stewart (#20 Home Depot Toyota)
Now I know what everyone is saying: Tony's leaving at the end of the year, and may not be particularly motivated to run this car. But he has experienced a glorious decade with Greg Zippadelli and company at JGR, and wants to finish on a strong note. After being at the danger zone of 12th place mid-season, this team has come around, and I look for Stewart to win title number three and finally crack victory lane.