2010 NFL Playoff Predictions: 7 Teams in Contention Who Won't Make the Playoffs

With just three weeks remaining in the NFL season, intrigue and excitement are rising to a fever pitch as much uncertainty remains regarding the playoff picture.

So far only the 11-2 New England Patriots have clinched a playoff spot with every other division race separated by at most one game. In fact, one could argue that as many as 20 teams still have playoff aspirations.

The last time I saw a race this tight, Dewey defeated Truman. Considering the cutthroat competition in the NFL, now seems the ideal opportunity to examine which contending teams will not make the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers

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SAN DIEGO - DECEMBER 12: Quarterbaqck Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers calls signals in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium on December 12, 2010 in San Diego, California. the Chargers won 31-0. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the league’s most pleasant surprise all season.

Thomas Jones has been playing well under the radar yet again (766 yards), but Jamaal Charles has been the real revelation. The dynamic back from Texas earned a five-year contract extension by shredding through defenses for 1,177 yards and an absurd 6.1-yard per carry average.

Luckily, this Cinderella story may yet have a fairy tale ending. Despite leading the division at 8-5, the Chiefs will likely go 2-1 over their last three games (@ St. Louis, Tennessee, Oakland) while San Diego should win out their remaining schedule (San Francisco, @ Cincinnati, @ Denver) putting the two teams in a virtual tie.

These AFC West rivals split the regular season games and will finish with identical division records, pushing the tiebreaker down to the third option—win-loss record in common games. KC has victories over Seattle and possibly St. Louis, giving the Chiefs the tiebreaker.

San Diego blew out the Chiefs last week and has shown some signs of greatness since its loss to New England, but this may be another case of too little, too late.

Jacksonville Jaguars

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - DECEMBER 12: Quarterback David Garrard #9 of the Jacksonville Jaguars sits on the ground after a sack during the game against the Oakland Raiders at EverBank Field on December 12, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood

Currently the Jaguars hold a one-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts with just three games to go, so many readers may be shocked to see them listed outside of the playoffs.

Alas, after extensive research it appears that the Colts winning the division is far more likely, and the Jags will be unable to surpass the Jets or Ravens for a wild card berth.

The two teams face each other this weekend in Indy, where the Colts are 4.5-point favorites. Assuming Indy wins, the two will be in a virtual tie with two games remaining.

If Indy can take care of business against inferior competition (@ Oakland, Tennessee) and Jacksonville can do the same (Washington, @ Houston), the playoff spot would once again be decided by a tiebreaker. That’s assuming both teams end up with matching 10-6 records.

The Jaguars beat Houston in Jacksonville on Mike Thomas’ last minute, fluke, Hail Mary reception, and the Texans could play spoiler in their home finale. Even if these two teams do finish with identical records, Indy would hold the tiebreaker.

Both teams would finish with identical head-to-head results and division records, but Indy would have the advantage in common games record. Against eight non-AFC South teams the Colts would have gone 5-3, while the Jaguars would have gone 4-4 (assuming they defeat Washington).

A whole season could come down to the fact that Indy defeated the Giants and Chiefs while the Jags lost those games. Who’d have thunk it?

Miami Dolphins

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MIAMI - OCTOBER 4: Cameron Wake #91 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates after a play against the New England Patriots at Sun Life Field on October 4, 2010 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)

Although Miami is currently a long shot to make the playoffs (they would need to win out with either the Jets or Ravens losing at least two games), it seems almost impossible.

The Jets are in a rut after being demolished by the Patriots. Their bravado was their calling card all season, but it seems to be quickly dissipating.

Rex Ryan's team will likely lose at Pittsburgh this weekend and could struggle against the Bears, but a win against the Bills during Week 17 puts New York at 10-6, which should be enough to seal up the last wild card spot.

Considering Miami would need to win out and defeat New England in Foxboro, their fate seems destined to be enjoying watching the playoffs from the comfort of their own couches.

Seattle Seahawks

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SAN FRANCISCO - DECEMBER 12: Matt Hasselbeck #8 of the Seattle Seahawks looks on against the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL game at Candlestick Park on December 12, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

The situation in the NFC is insane, as a handful of high-quality, well-qualified teams will miss making the playoffs. On the other hand, the NFC West will ensure an undeserving team sneaks into a postseason berth.

Seattle is 6-7 and tied with St. Louis for the division lead, but with an excruciating late-season schedule they would be lucky to go 1-2. The Seahawks will face Atlanta this week before traveling to Tampa Bay and finishing against the Rams.

With very little offense to speak of and one of the league’s worst signal callers in Matt Hasselbeck (under 60 percent completion percentage and 12 TDs to 15 INTs), you don’t need Ms. Cleo to tell you the Hawks are in trouble.

After such a promising start, Seattle will finish 6-10 and out of the playoffs.

St. Louis Rams

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NEW ORLEANS, LA - DECEMBER 12: Quarterback Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams looks to throw a pass during the game against the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome on December 12, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints defeated the Rams

With Seattle out of it, the NFC West battle should come down to the Rams and 49ers. Sam Bradford has been a godsend for St. Louis this season, leading a group of ragtag receivers to a first-place tie with just three games remaining—even if it is in the Khloe Kardashians of divisions.

The Rams finish the season facing Kansas City, San Francisco and then finishing in Seattle. If St. Louis does as I predict and loses to both KC and SF before defeating Seattle, it would finish with a 7-9 record.

Meanwhile, the Niners wrap up with games at San Diego, at St. Louis and home against the lowly Cardinals. Mike Singletary’s team will likely lose in San Diego but could knock off St. Louis and Arizona, placing them at 7-9 as well. A win over the Rams during Week 16 would give the 49ers a season sweep and ensure the tiebreaker.

Of course, the biggest question is can San Francisco travel to St. Louis and knock off its division foe? San Fran won their previous matchup in an overtime thriller, 23-20. In that game Frank Gore was pretty quiet, but QB Troy Smith stepped in and threw for 356 yards with a score and no turnovers.

I always considered SF the most talented team in the NFC West, but now with Brian Westbrook playing so well in relief of Gore, I think they are actually playing like the better team. Last week against the Seahawks Alex Smith looked calm and composed in the pocket, while the defense finally played like it’s capable of, intercepting Hasselbeck four times and forcing two fumbles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 12: Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passes against the Washington Redskins at FedExField on December 12, 2010 in Landover, Maryland. The Buccaneers defeated the Redskins 17-16. (Photo by Larry French/Getty Images)

I’m very sorry to have to post Tampa Bay on this list; I really am. All season I doubted the Buccaneers' credibility and assumed they would fall off and finish with a sub-.500 record. Standing on an 8-5 record, that assumption is no longer even possible.

Despite one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in recent history, the Bucs look like they’ll be watching the playoffs on television rather than participating in them.

The Bucs can’t catch the 11-2 Falcons even if they lost out, as Atlanta has already won the season series. The most likely scenario is that Tampa will win home games against the Lions and Seahawks before visiting New Orleans.

Assuming the Bucs lose to the Saints, Tampa Bay would be 10-6 while the Falcons would be 11-5 and sitting on a wild card spot. Drew Brees has started to look like his old self, but I’m not sure they can win tough road games in Baltimore and Atlanta.

Some of you may be questioning whether 10-6 is good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately Tampa’s division record (2-3 currently, 2-4 expected) could deny them the necessary tiebreaker to win a spot in the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers

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DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 12: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers leaves the field at halftime after leaving the game with a concussion while playing the Detroit Lions on December 12, 2010 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/

Another worthy team could be denied a postseason berth in this tight playoff race. Although Aaron Rodgers is questionable with his second concussion of the season, I fully expect him to play out this season-defining period.

The 8-5 Packers have a tough stretch of games with games in New England and home against the Giants and Bears. Assuming they lose to the white-hot Patriots, Green Bay should split tough home games against New York and Chicago.

Both teams have great pass rushes and could force Rodgers to hurry his throws as he looks to avoid taking hard hits and worsening his preexisting condition.

A 1-2 run to close the season would put Green Bay at 9-7 and out of the playoffs.

Additional Information

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PHILADELPHIA - NOVEMBER 21: Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs for a touchdown against Kenny Phillips #21 of the New York Giants in the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on November 21, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by M

The NFC East picture has yet to be addressed and deserves attention even if none of their teams will be absent from the postseason festivities. Both the Eagles and Giants currently sit on 9-4 records and should both be primed for a Super Bowl run.

The two teams face off this week in New York in a game that I give the Giants a slight edge in. If the Giants defeat Philly, lose in Green Bay and defeat the Redskins, they’ll finish the year at 11-5 and easily make the playoffs.

On the other hand the Eagles have home games against two underachieving teams with a litany of on-field and off-field problems in Minnesota and Dallas. The Cowboys have been playing better under Jason Garrett, but I still suspect Vick and the Eagles will protect their house and defeat both teams.

A 2-1 finish would also put the Eagles at 11-5 and force a tiebreaker to decide which team wins the division and which earns the wild card berth.

For Those Wondering About the NFL’s Tiebreaking Procedure

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FORT LAUDERDALE, FL - FEBRUARY 05: Commissioner of the NFL Roger Goodell speaks to members of the media during the NFL Commissioner Press Conference held at the Greater Ft. Lauderdale/Broward County Convention Center as part of media week for Super Bowl

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss

Conclusion

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FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 12: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 reacts after teammate Wes Welker #83 scored a touchdown in the first quarter during the NFL season opener against the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium on September 12, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachuse

If the remainder of the season goes as projected, the playoff picture would look like so:

AFC

New England and Pittsburgh earn first round byes.

Kansas City and Indianapolis win their divisions.

Baltimore and New York Jets earn wild card berths.

NFC

Atlanta and Chicago earn first round byes.

San Francisco and Philadelphia/New York Giants win their divisions.

New Orleans and New York/Philadelphia earn wild card berths.