Cliff Lee To The Phillies: Power Ranking Each Team & World Series Odds
The Phillies pulled off the biggest coup this offseason when they literally came from nowhere to sign the best free agent pitcher on the market, Cliff Lee. The front four guys in their rotation are as good as any that we have seen in baseball in a long, long time.
So what does this move do to the baseball landscape?
Philadelphia goes from being a favorite in the National League to being the overwhelming favorite to get back to the World Series for the third time in four years.
The National League appears to be very top heavy led by the Phillies, Braves and Giants with not a whole lot behind them.
The American League is in a similar situation but there is more depth and quality on that side. The Red Sox will enter as the favorites, but the Yankees still have as deep a lineup as anyone. The Rays will take a step back with the loss of Carl Crawford, but they will still be good.
So who will win the 2011 World Series?
Here are each teams odds to win it all, in order from worst to best.
30. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Odds: 150/1
The Pirates will enter 2011 about as well as they ended 2010, which is to say not well. However, there is reason for optimism in the Steel City even after a 105-loss season.
By all accounts they had one of the best drafts in 2010. They were able to break in their top prospect, Pedro Alvarez, and Andrew McCutchen is turning into a star.
Things will be rough in Pittsburgh for a little while longer, but at least they appear to be heading in the right direction.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 30
Odds: 80/1
After flirting with the idea of trading their young superstar, Justin Upton, Arizona came to their senses and realized that they would be better served to build around him. They have a lot of problems but he surely isn’t one of them.
They hired Kevin Towers to be their new general manager, and he could be the perfect man for what they need. The team had become flush with guys who could not make contact with the ball and they needed an organizational change. Towers is one of the best talent evaluators and will turn things around in Arizona, probably sooner then later.
28. Seattle Mariners
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Odds: 100/1
The Mariners were historically bad on offense in 2010. They finished last in baseball in slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and runs scored. They haven’t done anything to upgrade that offense this winter, so things will likely fall on the pitching staff.
Fortunately, the pitching staff is led by one of the best in the game, 2010 Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. Sadly, that’s where the rotation ends. They don’t have depth or talent in the rotation and it puts even more pressure on Hernandez every single start.
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27. San Diego Padres
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Odds: 30/1, I am guessing that Bodog didn't update the Padres yet.
Things will be very, very bad in San Diego in 2011. They got rid of their only offensive force, Adrian Gonzalez who was sent to Boston for prospects. They didn’t have anyone else in their lineup who posted an on-base percentage over .340 or hit more then 13 home runs.
Things likely won’t be all bad because of the park they play in. Petco makes bad pitchers look good, just ask Jon Garland. They will be competitive because they play half of their games in one of the worst hitters parks and their pitching will look better then it is.
The rebuild is in full-swing in San Diego and it’s not going to be pretty in 2011. They did get a good return for Gonzalez so things can turn around relatively quick, but not next year.
26. Baltimore Orioles
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Odds: 80/1
Things really changed for the Orioles when they brought in Buck Showalter as manager in August. He had the team playing hard and all the young talent that they have started to play up to expectations.
The O’s biggest problem is they play in the American League East. They have the young talent that is starting to develop on the major league club, but they are going to have a lot of growing pains playing in that division.
Baltimore will be better in 2011 but their window for contention will likely open all the way in 2012.
25. Kansas City Royals
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Odds: 125/1
The Royals are stacked with talent in their farm system. 2010 was a great year for Kansas City because all of their big time prospects made huge strides forward. Sadly, the talent is still in double-A and not Kansas City.
They still make moves that continue to perplex, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera….really? But things are looking much brighter in Kansas City. It’s just going to take a little more time before they are able to reap the rewards.
24. Cleveland Indians
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Odds: 80/1
The Indians have fallen off in a big way since their 2007 ALCS team. They are now in the midst of a rebuild that appears to be at least two years away from getting them back into contention.
They have one of the best all-around players in all of baseball, Shin-Soo Choo, and one of the best catching prospects in baseball, Carlos Santana. They will need a return to form from Grady Sizemore and for Matt LaPorta to prove that he can consistently hit major league pitching.
The rotation is a mess. Fausto Carmona had a pretty good bounce back season, but his walk-rate is still troubling. Carlos Carrasco showed some promise in his brief stint with the team in September, but he has composure issues. Other than that they are left with a ton of questions that don’t appear to have good answers.
23. Houston Astros
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Odds: 70/1
The Astros finally entered full blown rebuild mode by trading Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman last July. Their farm system has been at, or near, the bottom of Baseball America’s team rankings for years and they needed a change.
Brad Mills showed a lot of promise as the team’s manager. They need to draft and develop their own talent a lot better than they have for the last decade or so. If they could get someone to take Carlos Lee off their hands, that would help too.
22. Toronto Blue Jays
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Odds: 50/1
Cito Gaston’s retirement is the best possible thing that could have happened to Toronto. He was obsessed with getting meaningless wins for a team that wasn’t going anywhere that he refused to play the Jays rookies and young players.
They have a good core of Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and Ricky Romero but they need time to develop other areas. Lind and Hill have to have bounce back years. Snider has to start living up to his potential. Plus Kyle Drabek, the key to the Roy Halladay trade, has ace potential.
21. Washington Nationals
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Odds: 65/1
The Nationals could have taken a big step forward in 2011 with a full season of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman at the top of their rotation. Sadly, Strasburg had Tommy John surgery and will miss the whole season.
They gave the worst contract of the winter to Jayson Werth, who might be worth a couple extra wins this year but by the time the Nationals get good he will be a detriment to them. Ryan Zimmerman is the most underrated superstar in baseball today.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Odds: 30/1
Things are very sketchy in Dodgerville because of the bitter divorce of the owners, Frank and Jamie McCourt. They have still spent some money this offseason, resigning Ted Lilly gives them a solid starter to go with Clayton Kershaw.
They need Matt Kemp to be what he was in 2009, not 2010. Andre Ethier needs to be the player he was before he got hurt last year. Rafael Furcal needs to be able to stay on the field for this team to compete in the National League West.
19. Chicago Cubs
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Odds: 35/1
The Cubs are a disaster waiting to happen. They have the worst contract in baseball on their hands in Alfonso Soriano’s ridiculous deal. They have a bunch of players that can’t get on-base. Their ace, Carlos Zambrano, is one bad call away from going Scarface on everyone.
They tried to mask some of their problems by giving Carlos Pena a one-year deal. They overpaid for him at $10 million, hoping that they are getting the 2008 version and not the 2009-2010 version.
The Cubs won 75 games in 2010. They should consider themselves lucky if they get to that number in 2011.
18. Florida Marlins
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Odds: 35/1
The Marlins are in a very unusual position. They have talent to win right now, but they probably don’t have the ability. Their offense will take a hit with the trade of Dan Uggla to Atlanta, but a full season of Mike Stanton will make up for that.
They are hoping that Javier Vazquez can find some of the velocity that he lost in 2010 with New York. It seemed like he was hurt, you don’t usually just lose that much velocity without something being wrong. Don’t be surprised if something comes out about that shortly after the season starts.
17. Milwaukee Brewers
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Odds: 60/1
If the Brewers had a bullpen they could compete in the National League Central. They made a sneaky good move acquiring starting pitcher Shaun Marcum from Toronto at the winter meetings.
The combination of Marcum and Yovani Gallardo at the top of their rotation gives them a very good 1-2 punch. They will need Randy Wolf to perform like he did for the Dodgers in 2009 if they want to be real contenders.
Prince Fielder has been on the market for two years and hasn’t been moved. This is his walk year, so if the Brewers fall out of the race early enough it would seem that he would finally be moved.
16. Los Angeles Angels
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Odds: 25/1
It seems more and more likely that the Angels will be the landing spot for free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre. He would be a great fit for their lineup and would give them great defense at third base.
They acquired Dan Haren at the trade deadline last year, likely to set themselves up for a run at the division this year. With Haren, Jered Weaver, and Ervin Santana the Angels have three starters who can be really good.
The bullpen is a problem and giving Scott Downs three years isn’t going to fix everything. If they can have a couple of those guys have career years, the Angels can be a factor in the West. If not they will struggle like they did in 2010.
15. New York Mets
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Odds: 35/1
It would be in the Mets best interest to start a rebuilding process. Unfortunately for them, they play in New York and that market won’t allow them to do it. They have a lot of aging players who are breaking down and making a ton of money, like Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran.
They need pitching help, Johan Santana is starting to show some chinks in the armor. Mike Pelfrey was great for a couple months, then fell off at the end. Oliver Perez is making about $12 million too much. Their bullpen is a wreck with K-Rod facing all kinds of legal issues.
They do have David Wright, who is a great player to build around. Ike Davis showed promise in his first year with in the majors. But they need to change something before things get worse.
14. Oakland Athletics
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Odds: 35/1
The A’s have a solid foundation of pitchers, led by Brett Anderson. They know how to develop pitching as well as any team in baseball. The problem comes from the offensive side of the game.
They need to get guys with power that can drive the ball in that huge park. They brought up their top prospect, Michael Taylor, who struggled mightily after his call up but still has a lot of promise. They made a run at Adrian Beltre but pulled their offer when it became clear that he didn’t want to play there.
13. Detroit Tigers
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Odds: 28/1
The Tigers are a sneaky team coming into 2011. They should have a good rotation, particularly the top three spots with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello. If they can find effective guys in the last two slots they could have one of the better rotations in baseball.
The lineup can be decent. Don’t expect Austin Jackson to be as good as he was though; he strikes out way too much. They have a very good 3-4 tandem with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, though they do sacrifice some defense at catcher with Martinez.
They need relief help but if they can plug that hole they can compete with the Twins and White Sox in the American League Central.
12. St Louis Cardinals
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Odds: 18/1
The Cardinals have done some very puzzling things recently. First, Tony La Russa refuses to play Colby Rasmus because he has some kind of agenda. Then, they trade Brendan Ryan, who is a great defensive shortstop but can’t hit, for Ryan Theriot, who can’t play short and doesn’t really hit.
They have great talent at the top with Rasmus, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainright, and Chris Carpenter. The problem is after that there is a major drop-off in talent. Jaime Garcia has great promise. Everything else is, at their best, average. Plus, they haven’t appeared to do much to convince Pujols to stay beyond 2011.
11. Minnesota Twins
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Odds: 18/1
The Twins have been spending money with the big boys for the last year. They pushed their payroll over $100 million and signed their all-star catcher, Joe Mauer to a $184 million contract. The Twins offense is underrated, it will be even better with the return of Justin Morneau.
The pitching is their biggest issue, particularly starting pitching. The bullpen will be fine, especially with the return of Joe Nathan, who missed 2010 after Tommy John surgery. They don’t have anything beyond Francisco Liriano. No disrespect to Scott Baker and Brian Duensing but they aren’t going to win you playoff games.
10. Texas Rangers
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Odds: 20/1
The Rangers have to be scrambling to find an alternative to Cliff Lee after he signed with the Phillies. They have the talent in their system to make a deal for a guy like a Zack Greinke, but it’s doubtful that they will gut their system to get the 2009 Cy Young winner.
They still have a lot of talent on the roster and will be favorites in the American League West. However, they need a guy to lead the rotation if they want to get back to the World Series. They may have that guy already, he is just their closer right now: Neftali Feliz.
By all accounts he has the ability to start, we know that he has the stuff. It’s just a matter of if the Rangers want to transition him into the rotation. They may feel they have no other choice.
9. Colorado Rockies
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Odds: 20/1
The Rockies typical late season charge for the National League West title came up a little bit short. They do have a lot of reason to be excited for 2011 though. They signed Troy Tulowitzki to a mega-deal that will keep him in Colorado through 2020. Carlos Gonzalez finished third in the National League MVP voting, after having a near triple crown year.
They do have a lot of rotation questions. Ubaldo Jimenez was great in April and May but fell off a cliff after June. They resigned Jorge de La Rosa, who has talent but hasn’t put it all together yet. The bullpen is solid, they just need to find some consistency in the rotation.
8. Tampa Bay Rays
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Odds: 20/1
The popular thing to do this Winter is hate on the Rays. They lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, they are looking to trade one of their starters, they need to rebuild a bullpen. Sure things are a little down in Tampa right now, but they are still stacked with talent.
The offense, with the exception of Evan Longoria, is very worrisome. They need Ben Zobrist to be the player that he was in 2009, when he was a legitimate MVP candidate. They have a lot of holes that they have to fill. At times, Tampa was putrid on offense. They take a lot of pitches and don’t make a lot of contact.
If there is one area this team has an abundance of talent, it’s starting pitching. They have David Price at the front of the rotation, Matt Garza is still there (for now), James Shields has the stuff to be good, Jeremy Hellickson was good in his time with the big league club in 2010. They need to have all their pitchers live up to their potential to be successful in 2011.
7. Chicago White Sox
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Odds: 25/1
The White Sox addressed a huge need at designated hitter by signing Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko. Their offense is very good and will help them make a run at the Twins in the American League Central.
They need answers about their pitching, like will Jake Peavy ever stay healthy? With a healthy Peavy, John Danks, and Mark Buehrle the White Sox will be very dangerous. The bullpen will be better with a full year from Chris Sale, to go along with Matt Thornton and the subtraction of Bobby Jenks.
6. Cincinnati Reds
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Odds: 20/1
The Reds are the most lopsided team in the National League. They have an offense that is loaded and can compete with anyone. Joey Votto rode his monster year in 2010 to an MVP award. Jay Bruce looks like he has finally figured things out and got a big six-year contract.
Their pitching is another story. Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto have the talent but have been inconsistent. Bronson Arroyo is an innings eater. Aroldis Chapman can throw the ball hard but is probably best suited to relieve given his mechanics and command issues.
They will be favorites in the National League Central but they might not be as good as they were in 2010.
5. New York Yankees
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Odds: 6/1
This offseason has been a disaster in the Bronx. They had an ugly negotiation with Derek Jeter, their most beloved player. They didn’t sign any of the free agents that they wanted. To make it worse, the Red Sox had the best offseason of anyone to this point.
The Yankees are still loaded offensively and will score a ton of runs. The problem is who is pitching after CC Sabathia? AJ Burnett is what he is, a guy with great stuff and bad command. Phil Hughes broke through as a starter in 2010, but is still young. Andy Pettitte just became a lot more valuable to them and they better hope he doesn’t retire.
4. San Francisco Giants
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Odds: 12/1
The defending champions have been relatively quiet in the offseason. They did resign Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff, but those moves shouldn’t inspire confidence. They did give Buster Posey a chance to play (finally!) and he is a star at the catching position. Beyond that their lineup is bad.
This team won the World Series because of their starting pitching, and if they win in 2011 it will be because of their pitching. They may be the only team that can compete with the Phillies starting rotation.
3. Atlanta Braves
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Odds: 20/1
The Braves have had a very good offseason. They didn’t make any big signings at the winter meetings but they did address one of their biggest needs when they traded for Dan Uggla. Their biggest problem in 2010 was they didn’t have enough offense.
They got someone to go with Jason Heyward and Brian McCann. If Chipper Jones can come back and be the same hitter that he was before the injury, the Braves will be very dangerous.
They did lose some bullpen depth when Billy Wagner retired but they have enough quality arms to make up for his loss. Watch out for Atlanta in 2011.
2. Boston Red Sox
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Odds: 5/1
The “Sawx” made a big splash when they traded for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez prior to the winter meetings. They created a monsoon when they signed Carl Crawford. With those two moves, this lineup became one the deepest and most dangerous in all of baseball.
They aren’t No. 1 because of questions about their rotation. Which Josh Beckett will be around in 2011? Were John Lackey’s struggles in 2010 an aberration or a sign of things to come?
Jon Lester is great and a real legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2011, but after him there are issues for Boston’s pitching.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
30 of 30
Odds: 7/2
The Phillies pulled off the biggest coup of the winter by swooping and stealing Cliff Lee away from the Rangers and Yankees. They have positioned themselves to have the most dominant rotation that any of us have seen in a long, long time.
Oh by the way, their lineup is pretty good too. It was streaky at times last year but getting full seasons from Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley will make this team even better on offense then they were last year. The Phillies are now the overwhelming favorites to win the National League.
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