MLB Trade Rumors: Is Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Garza the Best Available Option?
With Cliff Lee expected to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies today, the dominoes will be in motion for the next big move. The only remaining starting pitcher worth committing significant dollars to is Carl Pavano, and even that statement merits some debate.
That means that teams still looking for starting pitching will turn to the trade market to solve their offseason needs. Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke is the best pitcher supposedly available and is getting a tremendous amount of attention. But so far teams have balked at the Royals' asking price.
That might leave Rays righty Matt Garza as the most attractive option available.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com recently raised the possibility that many teams would prefer Garza over Greinke because Garza would be under team control for an additional year and would come at a cheaper price. Does this mean that Garza is suddenly the best option for teams desperate for pitching?
Let's take a look.
Contract Situation
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Garza is 26 years old with only five major league seasons under his belt. That means he's still an arbitration-eligible player.
He earned $3.35 million in 2010 and will receive a modest raise in each of the next three seasons. The value of his contract could be anywhere between $20 and $25 million over those three years. Garza is scheduled to become a free agent in 2014.
Greinke, 28, signed a four-year, $38 million contract extension with the Royals in 2009 that will pay him $13.5 million for each of the next two seasons. He will be a free agent in 2013.
So is two years of Greinke for $27 million as valuable as three years of Garza for $25 million?
By the Numbers
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Greinke is the superior pitcher here. He owns a career 3.82 ERA and is just one year removed from his brilliant Cy Young season in 2009. Last year Greinke wasn't his usual dominant self, as his ERA rose to 4.17 and his WHIP was an uncharacteristically high 1.245. Greinke's strikeout numbers were down, too, falling to 7.4 K/9 from 9.5 K/9 in 2009. But he still recorded at least 200 innings for the third consecutive season, and there have been some reports that Greinke was bored pitching for a team that couldn't give him run support.
Garza, however, is no slouch. He's never made an All-Star team or been involved in the Cy Young conversation, but his numbers are still among the best in baseball. The big righty had probably his best season in 2010, going 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 240.2 innings. His career ERA is an equally impressive 3.97. Garza was also fantastic in the postseason, giving up only one run in six innings against the Texas Rangers. He's spent the last three seasons pitching in the AL East, so his numbers are probably a bit inflated.
Both pitchers are 26 years old, though Greinke has two more seasons of experience.
No scout thinks that Garza is the better pitcher, but the disparity the two is not quite as great as it may seem. Greinke, when motivated, is one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball and would be an ace on any staff. Garza is best suited as a No. 2 pitcher in a rotation, but he's still one of the better young pitchers in the game.
Trade Market
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The Royals are reportedly asking for a sizable bounty in return for their ace, including two pitchers that project to one day be as good as Greinke in addition to other major league talent. Several teams have shown interest, including the Yankees, Rangers, Brewers, Blue Jays and Phillies. But nobody is going to bite on that asking price unless it comes down significantly.
The demand for Garza, however, has taken some time to develop. The Cubs have been linked to the righty as have the Rangers. While the price is also expected to be astronomical, the Rays don't have the leverage to make extreme demands if they actually hope to make a trade. Tampa has six capable starters vying for five rotation spots, and Garza makes the most sense as the odd one out.
The Rays are also under some pressure to make a deal if they want to stay in contention with the Yankees and Red Sox. Tampa has already lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Joaquin Benoit. They're expected to also lose Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate and Grant Balfour.
That's a lot of bodies to replace, and the only way the financially strapped team can do that is by trading a player like Garza.
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Greinke Vs. Garza
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There's no argument here about who the better pitcher is.
But taking into account each player's contract situation and the respective trade demands of their team, Garza looks like the better target.
That's good news for the Rays, who will be able to choose from among several offers for their young starter. The Cubs look like they're in the lead right now but will have to compete with other teams once they give up on their pursuit of Greinke.
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