Bears Vs. Patriots: Who Will Win and How?

With a blowout win over their rival New York Jets, the New England Patriots have solidified their status as the 2010 Super Bowl favorite.  This week the Pats head west to face-off against the NFC North leading Chicago Bears on what could be a cold, snowy afternoon.   

Although this is a non-conference game, this match-up is important for both teams.  With a win, the Patriots can clinch a playoff berth and maintain their number one seed in the AFC.  Chicago, on the other hand, must extend its five game winning streak to stay ahead of the surging Green Bay Packers, who are just a mere game and half out of first place.

What should Bears and Pats fan expect from this showdown between two storied franchises?  To answer this question, let’s examine both sides strengths, weaknesses, and likely courses of action. 

The Chicago Bears Strengths

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

CHICAGO - NOVEMBER 28: Devin Hester #23 of the Chicago Bears breaks for a first down run of 39 yards after a catch pursued by Stewart Bradley #55 and Dimitri Patterson #23 of the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field on November 28, 2010 in Chicago, Illino

Passing Game: Over the past two weeks, QB Jay Cutler has thrown five touchdown passes and no interceptions, as he’s efficiently and effectively distributed the ball to a deep Bears receiving corps.  WR Earl Bennett, a former Vandy teammate of Cutler, has emerged as a dependable receiver in crunch time.  Meanwhile, WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Hester stretch opposing defenses and create damage in space.  Even with a poor offensive line, the Bears are passing their way to victory, as they chip away at opposing defenses.

Running Defense:  Although the Bears gave up some big runs to Detroit RB Jahvid Best last week, Chicago remains a top five running defense.  With perennial Pro Bowlers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs roaming the middle of the field, opposing rushers have encountered a brick way.  Meanwhile DE Julius Peppers, who is best known for his excellent pass rushing skills, has emerged as consistent run stuffer off the edge.

Kick and Punt Return: Throughout his brief career, KR/PR Devin Hester has electrified Bears fans with his improbable touchdown returns when there are seemingly no return lanes.  After a two-year slump, Hester is back; and against the Lions last week, he almost broke the NFL record for TD returns on a second half quarter punt return, which the Lions Punter thwarted with a well-timed tackle.  

The Chicago Bears Weaknesses

Leon Halip/Getty Images

DETROIT - DECEMBER 05: D. J. Moore #30 of the Chicago Bears stops Tony Scheffler #85 of the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter of the game at Ford Field on December 5, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. The Bears defeated the Lions 24-20. (Photo by Leon Hali

Offensive Line: Chicago’s offensive line has improved with more playing time and mid-season adjustments by line coach Mike Tice.  That said, the line has yielded far too many sacks in recent weeks, especially on the right side, where rookie RT J’Marcus Webb continues struggling against speed rushers, giving up multiple sacks in three consecutive weeks.

Pass Defense: Success in the Cover-2 system requires the front four defensive linemen to generate quick pressure on opposing offenses.  If this pressure fails to materialize, quarterbacks will find plenty of opportunities to hit receivers on short slant routes and screens.  Because of this weakness, the Bears are highly vulnerable to the short and intermediate passing routes.  

The New England Patriots Strengths

Elsa/Getty Images

FOXBORO, MA - DECEMBER 06: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots throws a pass against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on December 6, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Passing Game: Future hall of famer Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback of the decade.  His quick decision-making, ability to read defenses and accuracy are a difficult skillset to counter.  Elite defenses, including the Pittsburgh Steelers, have looked hopeless trying to contain Brady, who has thrown a league leading 27 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions this season. 

Receiver Depth: Although the Pats receivers  are not the fastest in the league, they are reliable.  Much like the Bears, the Pats lack a superstar receiving threat; but they make up for this deficiency with depth and reliability.

Running Game: The running duo of BenJarvus Green-Elis and Danny Woodhead has increased New England’s offensive firepower beyond Tom Brady.  Woodhead, who averages 5.4 yards per carry, and Green-Elis, who averages 4.3 yards per carry, force opposing defenses to account for the run, opening up passing lanes for Tom Brady to exploit.  

The New England Patriots Weaknesses

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

PITTSBURGH - NOVEMBER 14: Rashard Mendenhall #34 of the Pittsburgh Steelers runs by the New England Patriots defense during the game on November 14, 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Long passing game: Without WR Randy Moss, the Patriots lack a consistent deep threat, although Brady is certainly capable of throwing the deep ball.  Opposing defenses could enjoy some success moving into bump-and-run coverage and bringing their safeties closer to the box. 

Defense: The Patriots most glaring weakness is their young, inexperienced defense.  Ranked second to last in the NFL, the Pats have given up an average of 390 yards to opponents.  This statistic, however, is a bit misleading, as opposing offenses have had to put up points fast to keep up with New England’s prolific offense.  

Prediction

Elsa/Getty Images

FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 26: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots runs with the ball against linebacker Brian Urlacher #54 of the Chicago Bears on November 26, 2006 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots defeated

Against the number three defense in the NFL, the Patriots offense will face one of its toughest tests of the season.  Chicago, as it has most of the season, will shut down the running game and force the opposing quarterback to pass his team to victory. Against lesser opponents, this approach has worked well.  However, good quarterbacks, like Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, have enjoyed success moving the ball on the Bears.  Expect Tom Brady have similar success, as his quick release and decision-making will allow him to dink-and-dunk the Patriots up and down the field most of the afternoon.  The best counter for Chicago will be to move their corners into a bump-and-run coverage; but this tactic plays against Chicago’s Cover-2 philosophy, meaning the Bears will maintain loose coverage throughout the afternoon. 

When Chicago has the ball, the Bears will employ a well-balanced attack that will feature a heavy dosage of RB Matt Forte, who has become increasingly effective as the season progresses.  At the same time, expect more quick passes from Cutler to negate the pass rush—a tactic Chicago has driven Chicago’s offensive success since the bye week.  Look for New England’s questionable defense to be on the defensive most of the afternoon.  The best counter for New England will be to generate quick pressure on Cutler off the edges to disrupt the timing on his hot routes. 

This game will likely be a high scoring affair, as the Bears offense should put up points against the Pats weak defense, while Tom Brady will exploit weaknesses in the Bears secondary.  In the end, however, the Pats high-powered offense will overcome the Bears in a close battle. 

Assuming both sides stay healthy, New England wins 27 to 20.