2011 NFL Draft: Can Auburn's Cam Newton Become an Elite NFL Quarterback?

Before and after Cam Newton leads his blue and orange clad gang of Auburn teammates to the BCS National Championship on January 10th, talk of his draft stock will become one of the most hotly debated topics around the country.

Newton, who has drawn comparisons to everybody from Ben Roethlisberger to David Garrard to Tim Tebow to Jamarcus Russell, is currently projected as a mid to high first round pick by many of the nations elite draft analysts, including both Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay.

Despite the growing hype, however, Newton is arguably the biggest gamble in the entire 2011 Draft Class (assuming he declares). After all, Newton is a combination of every scout's worst fears. He has started only one year in a pseudo-spread offense and has some muddy character issues.

There is certainly no denying Newton's athletic prowess or his absurdly high potential, but considering the dismal success rate of players stemming from his collegiate background, the odds of him becoming an elite quarterback appear rather slim. Yet before anybody starts throwing all of those "one year wonder" and "spread offense" excuses around, let's breakdown Newton's stock.

First of all, the one-year starter label is a legitimate concern. Most of the NFL's "elite" starting quarterback started multiple years with their respective collegiate programs. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Eli Manning all had several years of experience prior to earning starting jobs at the pro level. But then there are cases like Matt Cassel and Mark Sanchez, who are certainly not elite, but have enjoyed moderate NFL success despite one and, in Cassel's case, no years of starting experience in college respectively.

Having multiple years of starting experience at the collegiate levels grants a quarterback an insurmountable amount of experience, knowledge, and savvy that can only be acquired through game trials. Four year starters like Matt Ryan have the opportunity to experience almost every game situation that will arise throughout the course of an NFL career. This can make him immune to folding under pressure or hostile road environments, amongst other variables. It is not a coincidence they call him "Matty Ice".

And then there are the 'spread offense quarterback' concerns. Auburn runs a very unique offensive scheme that rarely, if ever, has Newton taking snaps from under center. This will be a huge criticism towards Newton as the scouting process commences, much as it was with Tim Tebow.

But Newton's background as a spread offense quarterback should only become an issue if he is drafted by an NFL team that runs a strict pro-style offense. There are examples of successful quarterbacks who were bred in non-pro-style systems: Kyle Orton and Joe Flacco both came from pass heavy, shotgun-oriented offenses at Purdue and Delaware, but both now star in pseudo-spread offensive schemes. And don't forget that Joe Montana ran the triple option at Notre Dame.

Still, most of the current elite quarterbacks in the NFL did play captain pro-style offenses in college. And the keyword here is most. Isn't playing the odds part of the drafting process?

Whichever team decides to take Newton will be taking a risk despite his freak athleticism and size, or his rocket arm. But the payoff could be tremendous. Regardless of which team acquires his services, Newton will need time to develop and acclimate himself to an NFL game that will demand a largely different skill set than the one he deploys at Auburn.