Monday Night Football Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

It’s this simple; it’s the NFL’s Game of the Year. 

The New York Jets and the New England Patriots are two teams tied for the NFL’s best record.  Division rivals, Monday Night Football and more back stories than your Mother’s old soap opera.  It’s Yankees/Red Sox in pads. 

This game may just be exciting enough to help us forgive the network executives who plopped that San Francisco/Arizona mess on our televisions this previous Monday night.

The back stories you ask?  Well if you haven’t been sleeping under a big rock you’ve probably noted the two organizations have shared more than just the same division over the last decade.  High profilers like the two Bills (Belichick and Parcells), Mangenius, Curtis Martin, Ty Law and today’s Kevin Faulk impersonater, Danny Woodhead, lead a pretty long list of players and staff who’ve tasted the NE/NY rivalry from both sidelines.

History, bad blood, drama? 

You betcha.  Spygate, The Tuna Bowl, Belichick leaving the Jets high and dry, The Handshake, Rex Ryan using his introductory press conference to let the NFL world know he’s not about to kiss Belichick’s rings.  The media has been served up some pretty hittable belt high fastballs when it comes to looking for storylines between these two teams.

Monday night though should offer the purest exhibit of what a good rivalry should be.  Two quality teams battling for high stakes. 

A Jets win would put them in a commanding position in the division.  Although the standings would show NY up by only a single game over the Patriots, it would in effect be a two game lead by virtue of their head to head records being the first tie breaker.

A Patriot win would not only vault them into first place and one big step closer to the first round bye each team covets, it would also give them the inside track on home field throughout the playoffs. 

Although NE has been pretty solid on the road this year (see wins over San Diego and Pittsburgh) at home is where the Pats really rock.  A Brady led Pats team hasn’t lost a regular season game in Gillette since 2006.  (Though in fairness it didn’t stop Baltimore from giving them a pretty thorough beat-down at home during last season’s playoffs)

So how do you think this game plays out?  Here’s my take.

WHEN NY HAS THE BALL

I’m still pretty peeved at the computer that picked Shonne Greene for me when my browser kicked me out of my fantasy draft this year.  Greene’s struggles, as excruciating as they may have been for me aside, have opened the door for the career resurrection of LaDainian Tomlinson. 

The man still has balance, vision, and a very un-31-year-old burst.  He does his running behind one of ( if not the) best offensive lines in football. 

Of course most of the talk about the Jets offense will revolve around QB Mark Sanchez.  Sanchez has made great strides since his rookie year and has made some big time, highlight type plays to help get his team off the canvas just when they needed him.  Is he in that Brady/Manning circle yet? 

No. But he’s a dangerous guy who reminds me somewhat of a Tony Romo, or a young Brett Favre.  QB’s who can turn broken plays into highlights, at times can make plays that they just plain are not supposed to be able to make, but can occasionally get sloppy with the football as well.

Bottom line is the Patriots will try to take the Jets out of the running game early and make the Jets one dimensional.  Don’t expect it to happen.  Although the Pats may have some success early on, the Jets will have enough patience to not forget what got them here.

Sanchez will have his moments against a Patriot defense which has been playing very conservatively most of the season (and giving up lots of yards as a result).  Will Belichick get more aggressive against the young QB? 

I’m guessing he sits back and makes NY execute lots of plays, attempting to limit the big ones and waiting for the Jets offense to make the big mistake.

WHEN NE HAS THE BALL

The Patriots offense has a much different look than the first time these two teams met in game two of the season. Moss and Maroney are out while Deion Branch, Danny Woodhead and Logan Mankins are now in.  QB Tom Brady may be playing at the highest level of his Hall of Fame career and the Patriot offense is taking on a somewhat familiar look; efficient (if not always spectacular) and quite effective. 

NE comes in leading the NFL in scoring at 30.4 pts per game. (including 29.0 pts per game since the Moss trade).

Look for NE to set up the run with the pass and get their share of yards as well.  Multiple TE sets may exploit the middle of the Jets defense which will be missing S Jim Leonhard.   The biggest challenge for the Jets will be trying to create big plays against a team that rarely makes big mistakes.  NE has turned the ball over just nine times all season and allowed Brady to be sacked just 15.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Brad Smith of the Jets and Brandon Tate of the Patriots give both teams big play capability in the return game having combined for three TD returns this season (Tate two, Smith 1one). 

The Patriot coverage has looked a little sloppy as of late.  That has to get cleaned up or Smith will make them pay.  Both teams have question marks in their kicking games with the Jets Nick Folk and the Patriots Shayne Graham (signed after the Stephen Gostkowski  injury) having issues with consistency. 

MISC

Both Belichick and Ryan each should be considered among Coach of the Year candidates, each team will be prepared.  The latest big injury to Leonhard has gotten a lot of attention, but the fact is both teams have lost key personnel over the course of the season (NE has 11 players on IR) and each have shown a great degree of resiliency in overcoming it. 

PREDICTION

Jets make one more mistake than the Patriots and NE keeps their undefeated home record intact.   

New England 27 New York 20