Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions: Preview, Prediction of Week 13 NFC North Game
The Chicago Bears travel across Lake Michigan to face-off against their rival Detroit Lions this Sunday. The Bears, who are coming off a big victory over the Eagles, hope to strengthen their game and a half lead over the Packers in the NFC North. The youthful Lions, however, are just hoping to survive after losing their second quarterback, Shaun Hill, to a broken finger.
What should fans expect from this NFC North showdown and who will win? To answer these questions, let’s examine both teams’ strengths, weaknesses and likely courses of action.
Bears Strengths
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Jay Cutler: Against the Eagles, Jay Cutler had his best game as a Bear, passing for 4 TD, no INTs and over 250 yards. His mobility offers another threat for opposing defenses to consider. Cutler’s quick release and ability to extend the play has helped produce Chicago’s offensive resurgence following the bye.
Run Defense: As the second ranked rushing defense in the NFL, the Chicago Bears have stymied opposing rushers throughout the season. Even the NFL’s elite backs, like Adrian Peterson, have struggled to produce against Brian Urlacher and company.
Devin Hester: The incredible kick and punt return ability of Devin Hester strikes fear in opposing special teams. If you kick to Hester, you risk giving up a TD, whereas the directional kick, risks putting the ball out of bounds. Because of Devin Hester’s dynamic return ability, the Bears have enjoyed excellent starting field position most of the 2010 season.
Bears Weaknesses
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Pass Blocking: All season Chicago’s offensive line has struggled to protect Cutler. Last week, the Bears gave up four sacks to the Eagles. The right side of the line has been particularly vulnerable to speed rushes.
Short to Intermediate Pass Defense: Chicago’s Cover-2 defense is vulnerable to short and intermediate passes, especially when the front four lineman fail to produce pressure. Teams like the Eagles, Packers and Bills used short passes to move the ball well against the Bears.
Bears Likely Courses of Action
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Defensively, Chicago will focus on shutting down the Lions’ run game, while cranking up the pressure on QB Drew Stanton. Also look for WR Calvin Johnson to face double teams all afternoon, as the Bears will shade a safety over to his side of the field.
Offensively, the Bears will emphasize pass protection, especially on the interior, where DT Ndamukong Suh will create mismatches. In Week 1, Chicago used screens and short passes to counteract the Lions blitz. Expect a similar approach this week. If, however, the Lions commit to stopping the short pass, look for Martz to dial up deep routes to keep the defenders off balance.
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Lions Strengths
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DT Ndamukong Suh: With eight sacks and one interception, Ndamukong Suh has blossomed into a star in just his first year in the NFL. In Week 1 against the Bears, Suh enjoyed a good afternoon, as he earned a sack and disrupted Chicago’s offense on several occasions.
WR Calvin Johnson: In Week 1 against the Bears, Calvin Johnson made what many fans and analysts argue was the game winning TD pass in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter; but an odd officiating rule negated the pass and Detroit’s season has sputtered ever since. Johnson remains a potent receiving threat for the Lions. With a better QB under center, Johnson would be a perennial Pro Bowler.
Pass Blocking: Even though the Lions offensive line struggles in run blocking, the unit has excelled in pass protection, giving up just 20 sacks all season (ranks 10th in the NFL). Pass protection will be essential on Sunday in order to keep Drew Stanton comfortable in the pocket.
Lions Weaknesses
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Quarterback Drew Stanton: The 26-year-old QB has started in only one game as a professional. In his brief NFL career, Stanton has thrown two TDs and seven INTs with a passer rating of 49.0. The Lions offense will likely flounder with Stanton under center.
Run Blocking: Detroit’s offensive line has had difficulties opening up running lanes all season. The Lions have average a paltry 3.6 yards per carry, putting a heavy burden on its young quarterbacks to carry the Lions offense.
Lions Likely Courses Of Action
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Defensively, Detroit will need to counter Chicago’s short passing game. To do so, will require the Lions to play more bump and run, while bringing safeties up into the box. This is a risky move, given the deep passing lanes will open. Nevertheless, Detroit will commit to the bump and run to throw off the timing of Chicago’s passing game, which, in recent weeks, has excelled.
Offensively, Detroit must get its run game going. Drew Stanton’s inexperience vs an elite defense is a recipe for disaster, just ask Tyler Thigpen and the Miami Dolphins. The Lions will commit to their running game most of the afternoon. If Chicago shuts down the run, Detroit’s best option is to spread out the Bears defense and dink and dunk their way down the field, which the Eagles did with some success last week.
Prediction
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The Lions are a young team with a lot of potential; and one to two years down the road, they will likely evolve into a competitive franchise. With Matthew Stafford or Shawn Hill under center, the Lions would have a shot at upsetting the Bears. But with a third string quarterback facing an elite Bears defense, the Lions are hopelessly overmatched.
Chicago’s improved offense should move the ball well against the Lions through short passes . Look for Cutler to hit a couple of deep passes against a Lions defense that will likely commit to stopping Chicago’s short to intermediate routes, thereby opening up deep routes for the speedy Johnny Knox and Devin Hester.
Defensively, Chicago should dominate a Lions offense run by an inexperienced, young QB. The Lions running game will likely flounder against the Bears, forcing Stanton to pass more than Lions coaches would like.
Assuming no new injuries occur for either team, Chicago wins 24 to 10.
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