NCAA Football Bowl Projections: Forecasting the Matchups and the Winners
It's the most wonderful time of year.
Not necessarily because of all the holidays, but because of all the bowl games we college football fans get to watch.
Some teams like Oregon are lucky enough to get to play in the BCS National Championship Game, while others will be satisfied to just be invited to a bowl game at all.
Then there are some teams like the Texas Longhorns that aren't even going to receive an invite to any of the bowl games despite their lofty preseason ranking.
Regardless, the bowl season highlights many matchups that we would not otherwise see.
Read on to find out not only who will play in each and every one (projections come from CBS Sports' Bowl Projections), but also who will win each game.
New Mexico Bowl: BYU Cougars vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
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On the first day of bowl season, Dec. 18, the New Mexico Bowl will take place in Albuquerque, N.M.
This bowl matches up the MWC's No. 4-5 team against a WAC team.
As of now, it appears that BYU will end up playing Fresno State in New Mexico.
The Cougars will carry a 6-6 record in the game, the Bulldogs a 7-5 record.
Neither school really has a marquee win, but Fresno State has played more consistently throughout the season.
They have lost two of their last three games, but one was against Boise State and the other was a one-point defeat at the hands of the Nevada Wolf Pack.
It is sure to be an interesting game, though, as Fresno State is an offensive team and BYU takes pride in its defensive ability.
Prediction: Fresno State
Humanitarian Bowl: Toledo Rockets Vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
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The Humanitarian Bowl takes place in Boise, Idaho, and matches up the third-ranked team in the MAC with a WAC team.
Right now, it looks as though Toledo will have the misfortune of facing a dangerous Nevada team.
The Rockets have used a pretty balanced attack to win eight games this season. They shouldn't stand a chance against an 11-1 Nevada team who just beat Boise State.
Expect the Wolf Pack to tear Toledo apart.
Prediction: Nevada
New Orleans Bowl: FIU Golden Panthers vs. UTEP Miners
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The New Orleans Bowl obviously takes place in New Orleans, La.
It is the third and final bowl game played on Dec. 18, the opening day of bowl season.
Traditionally, this game is between the winner of the Sun Belt and a C-USA team.
FIU is 6-5 with a game left against Middle Tennessee State, while UTEP's season is done. Two straight losses dropped them to 6-6.
Expect a third straight loss for the Miners, as they have a comparable defense and a worse offense.
Prediction: FIU
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Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
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The Beef O'Brady's Bowl, which takes place Dec. 21 in St. Petersburg, Fla, matches up the Big East 5-6 against a team from the C-USA.
This year, it looks like we'll see the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
Pittsburgh has lost five games this year, but they've all been to quality teams (Utah, Miami, Notre Dame, Connecticut and West Virginia). Southern Miss has lost just four times, but they've been to lesser teams.
The offense is better in Southern Miss. But Pittsburgh is going to be a little bit better than the teams that the Golden Eagles have played.
Prediction: Pittsburgh
Maaco Bowl: Utah Utes vs. Ohio Bobcats
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The Maaco Bowl matches up the No. 1 team in the MWC against No. 5-6 team in the Pac-10.
This year, though, there won't be that many teams eligible in the Pac-10. So the Ohio Bobcats look like they could be a suitable replacement.
Utah, though, should wipe the floor with them. The No. 20-ranked Utes are better in every facet of the game.
Prediction: Utah
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs vs. Navy Midshipmen
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The Poinsettia Bowl is played on Dec. 23 in San Diego, Calif.
It matches up the No. 2 team in the MWC against Navy.
This year, the team from the MWC is San Diego State, which finished 8-4. Navy, which is 8-3 with a game left against Army, is an inferior team, though.
The Aztecs have a better offense and a better defense, plus the advantage of playing a game at home. It's also quite difficult to stop Ronnie Hillman, their running back.
Prediction: San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii Warriors vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
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The Hawaii Bowl, played in Honolulu on Dec. 24, matches a team from the WAC with a team from the C-USA.
This year we'll see Hawaii, which has already accepted an invitation, take on the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa.
It's sure to be an offensive shootout, as the schools rank 12th and ninth in points scored, respectively.
Good luck stopping Tulsa's dual-threat quarterback, G.J. Kinne. He's thrown for 28 touchdowns and 3,307 yards while rushing for 557 yards and seven touchdowns.
Prediction: Tulsa
Little Caesars Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Louisville Cardinals
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The Little Caesars Bowl in Detroit, Mich., is played the day after Christmas and features the No. 1-2 team in the MAC against the Big Ten No. 8.
This year, the Big Ten won't have eight eligible teams, so that's why we see Louisville here.
The Cardinals won't stand a chance, though, against the 25th-ranked Huskies.
Northern Illinois, coming off a 71-3 shellacking of Eastern Michigan, is a much better team.
Prediction: Northern Illinois
Independence Bowl: Air Force Falcons vs. Clemson Tigers
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The Independence Bowl, played in Shreveport, La., on Dec. 27, matches the No. 3 team in the MWC with the No. 7 team in the ACC.
This year, that means we should see Air Force take on Clemson.
Air Force is the more balanced team, as Clemson plays good defense but struggles on offense. The ACC is having a weak year, as well.
Prediction: Air Force
Champs Sports Bowl: Maryland Terrapins vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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The Champs Sports Bowl is played on Dec. 28 in Orlando, Fla.
It matches the No. 3 team in the ACC with the No. 2 in the Big East, unless Notre Dame is eligible, which they are this year.
As a result, we should see Maryland play Notre Dame.
Both teams are coming off big wins. Maryland knocked NC State out of the rankings, while Notre Dame beat their rivals, the USC Trojans.
Notre Dame, though, has been on a longer winning streak, dominating Utah and Army in the two weeks before.
Prediction: Notre Dame
Insight Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Missouri Tigers
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The Insight Bowl is played on Dec. 28 in Tempe, Ariz.
The game is usually between the Big Ten's No. 4-5 team and the Big 12's No. 4, meaning we'd see Michigan and Missouri play here.
Both teams are decent this year, but Michigan has the best player.
Denard Robinson thrived in the spotlight during the beginning of the year. With it firmly on him again, he should be able to produce.
Prediction: Michigan
Texas Bowl: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Baylor Bears
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The Texas Bowl is played in Houston, Texas.
This season, we should see Illinois, the Big Ten No. 6, play Baylor, the Big 12 No. 6.
Baylor is the better team and has the best player in Robert Griffin III.
The dual-threat quarterback should help his team prevail in their home state.
Prediction: Baylor
Alamo Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
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The Alamo Bowl should give us our first great matchup between quality teams.
Played on Dec. 29 in San Antonio, Texas, it takes the No. 2 team in the Pac-10 and the No. 3 in the Big 12.
That means Arizona and Nebraska this year.
Nebraska and their suffocating defense though would prevail over the Wildcats. The defense, plus the dual-threat nature of Taylor Martinez, is too much to handle.
Prediction: Nebraska
Military Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs. East Carolina Pirates
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The Military Bowl is played on Dec. 29 in our nation's capitol.
It typically pits against each other the ACC No. 8 and a C-USA team.
This year, we would see Boston College and East Carolina play.
Boston College is 5-0 in their last five games. East Carolina is 1-4 in their last five.
Enough said.
Prediction: Boston College
Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse Orange vs. Kansas State Wildcats
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The Pinstripe Bowl is played in New York City on Dec. 30.
It matches up the No. 4 team in the Big East and the No. 7 team in the Big 12.
That means we get to watch Syracuse take on Kansas State.
Even though Kansas State has to travel a lot farther, they have Daniel Thomas and Syracuse doesn't.
That alone should help the Wildcats win.
Prediction: Kansas State
Music City Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Tennessee Volunteers
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The Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tenn., is played on Dec. 30 and pits the No. 6 team in the ACC against the No. 7 team in the SEC.
That means Tennessee gets a home game against the Tar Heels of North Carolina.
This year the SEC has been significantly better than the ACC. Tennessee has also only lost to Georgia and a bunch of ranked teams.
Prediction: Tennessee
Armed Forces Bowl: SMU Mustangs vs. Army Black Knights
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The Armed Forces Bowl is the first of two games on Dec. 30 and usually matches up the No. 4-5 team in the MWC with a C-USA team, unless Army is bowl-eligible.
Army is this year, and the MWC doesn't have enough bowl-eligible teams, so SMU will replace them.
It's just hard to bet against Army in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Prediction: Army
Holiday Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
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The Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego, Calif., on Dec. 30 and matches up the Pac-10 No. 3 with the Big 12 No. 5.
That means Washington plays Oklahoma State this year, leaving us with a tough pick.
Oklahoma State is the better team. They have more talent and success.
But Washington has Jake Locker, and I don't want to bet against him in his final collegiate game.
Prediction: Washington
Meineke Car Care Bowl: N.C. State Wolfpack vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
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The Meineke Car Care Bowl is the first of four bowl games on the last day of 2010.
It's played in Charlotte, N.C., and pits the ACC No. 5 against the Big East No. 3.
That means N.C. State and West Virginia this year.
The Mountaineers' defense, ranked second in the country in terms of points allowed, is too good for N.C. State to score on consistently.
Prediction: West Virginia
Liberty Bowl: Central Florida Knights vs. Georgia Bulldogs
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The Liberty Bowl, played in Memphis, Tenn., takes place on Dec. 31 and matches up the SEC No. 8-9 with the No. 1 team in the C-USA.
The SEC is quite good this year.
Despite a letdown season, Georgia is still a very good football team. Most of their losses have been close.
Aaron Murray and A.J. Green should have their way with UCF.
Prediction: Georgia
Sun Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Temple Owls
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The Sun Bowl on Dec. 31 is played in El Paso and matches up the ACC No. 4 with the Pac-10 No. 4.
This year, though, there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams from the Pac-10, so Temple will take the spot.
The Owls have the benefit of going up against a struggling Miami team that just fired their head coach, Randy Shannon.
When head coaches are fired, two things can happen: The team can rally around the interim coach or fall apart.
I think the former happens here.
Prediction: Miami
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Florida State Seminoles vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
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The final bowl game of 2010, the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, takes place in Atlanta, Ga.
It matches up the No. 2 team in the ACC with the No. 5 in the SEC.
This year, that means that Florida State takes on Mississippi State.
The SEC is much better than the ACC this year, but Florida State still has a lot of talent. Christian Ponder is an incredible quarterback, a sure-fire NFL talent.
Prediction: Florida State
Capital One Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan State Spartans
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The Capital One Bowl kicks of 2011 in Orlando, Fla., and gives us the pleasure of seeing the SEC No. 2 play the Big Ten No. 2.
That means Alabama, coming off a tough loss to Auburn, gets to play Big Ten co-champion Michigan State.
Even though Michigan State is ranked higher by the BCS, No. 8 compared to Alabama's No. 16., Alabama lays claim to a better offense and a better defense.
Prediction: Alabama
Outback Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
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The Outback Bowl, played in Tampa, Fla., pits the No. 3 team in the Big Ten against an SEC team.
This year we should see Iowa play South Carolina.
Iowa has lost their last three games, and South Carolina is tough enough that they should make it four straight.
Look for Marcus Lattimore to shine here.
Prediction: South Carolina
TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
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The TicketCity Bowl is played in Dallas, Texas on Jan. 1.
The Big Ten No. 7 and a Big 12 or C-USA team get to play in this one.
This year we should see Northwestern and Texas Tech face off.
Northwestern has the better defense, while Texas Tech boasts a much better offense.
I think that here, offense beats defense.
Prediction: Texas Tech
Gator Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Florida Gators
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The Gator Bowl is played in Jacksonville, Fla., on Jan. 1.
It matches up the No. 6 SEC team with the Big Ten No. 4-5.
That means Penn State plays Florida here.
Essentially, this is a matchup of two completely underperforming teams.
The winner is picked here solely because of the home-field advantage.
Prediction: Florida
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Miami Redhawks vs. Troy Trojans
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The GoDaddy.com is sure to feature interesting commercials and will be played in Mobile, Ala., on Jan. 6.
It features the MAC No. 1-2 and the Sun Belt No. 2.
This year, that's Miami (OH) and Troy.
Troy has the ability to score at will, but can't play defense. Miami has the opposite problem.
That said, Troy's offense is better than Miami's defense.
Prediction: Troy
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies vs. LSU Tigers
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The Cotton Bowl, in Arlington, Texas, on Jan. 7, features the Big 12 No. 2 and an SEC team.
This year, Texas A&M gets a de facto home game against the Tigers of LSU.
The SEC is too strong this year, and LSU is a great example why. Their defense is quite difficult to score on.
Texas A&M is going to find that out the hard way.
Prediction: LSU
BBVA Compass Bowl: South Florida Bulls vs. Kentucky Wildcats
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The BBVA Compass Bowl is played in Birmingham, Ala., on Jan. 8.
It matches up the Big East No. 5-6 against the SEC No. 8-9.
This year, we will see South Florida take on Kentucky.
Neither team is excellent, but South Florida is a little better than the 6-6 Wildcats.
The Bulls are also coming off a big win in overtime against Miami (Fl), and have one game remaining against the Connecticut Huskies.
Prediction: South Florida
Fight Hunger Bowl: Boise State Broncos vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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The Fight Hunger Bowl is the last of the non-BCS bowls.
It's played in San Francisco, Calif., on the night of Jan. 9. The bowl matches up a WAC team with the Pac-10 5-6.
The Pac-10 doesn't have enough good teams this year, so Georgia Tech should take their place without Josh Nesbitt, their longtime starting quarterback.
Thank you for coming. See you again next year, Yellow Jackets.
Prediction: Boise State
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. TCU Horned Frogs
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The Rose Bowl will be played on Jan. 1 in Pasadena, as always.
This year, barring an unforeseen rise of TCU into the title game, we'll see the Horned Frogs take on the Badgers of Wisconsin.
Led by Andy Dalton, the Horned Frogs really just can't be stopped. The lowest point total they've had this year has been 21, and that came in a game where they held the opposing offense scoreless and didn't really need to increase the lead.
They rank fourth in the country in points scored and first in points allowed.
Don't mess with Texas Christian University.
Prediction: TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Stanford Cardinal
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The Fiesta Bowl, held in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 1, will feature the Oklahoma Sooners and the Stanford Cardinal.
Stanford has been incredibly good this year, their only loss coming at the hands of the Oregon Ducks. They've even managed to shut out three opponents this year: UCLA, Washington and Oregon State.
They rank eighth in points scored and 11th in points allowed.
Oklahoma is a great football team, but they can't compete with Stanford.
Prediction: Stanford
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Connecticut Huskies
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The Orange Bowl is played in Miami, Fla., on Jan. 3.
We should see Virginia Tech and Connecticut play in this one.
Unfortunately, that means we get to see the best team in a weak ACC play the best team in a weak Big East.
Virginia Tech has been on a tear as of late after losing to Boise State and James Madison to start the season. There's no reason to think that the roll stops now.
Prediction: Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
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The Sugar Bowl will be played in New Orleans, La., on Jan. 4.
This year we should see the Arkansas Razorbacks play the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Arkansas is a very good football team, led by stud quarterback Ryan Mallett and a great trio of wide receivers. But the Ohio State football team is too talented.
Terrelle Pryor should be able to run and throw all over the Razorbacks' porous defense.
Prediction: Ohio State
BCS National Championship Game: Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers
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The BCS National Championship Game will be played on Jan. 10 in Glendale, Ariz.
Barring an upset of Auburn at the hands of South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, we should have the pleasure of watching Auburn and Oregon play for the title.
The game would be sure to light up the scoreboard. But in my opinion, Oregon has the better offense and a much better defense.
Darron Thomas, LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner and company are too good to stop on a consistent basis.
Plus, their defense is excellent. It actually ranks 15th in the country in terms of points allowed.
So how is 15th in the country considered excellent? Well, when you consider the pace at which their offense plays, the amount of time that the defense spends on the field, and the fact that teams are almost always in garbage time and playing for insignificant points, 15th is quite excellent.
Prediction: Oregon
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