North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball: Marshall Law

He’s the highly-touted freshman on whose shoulders rest the hopes of Heels fans across the country.  He’s the McDonald’s All-American whose ascendancy will resurrect Carolina basketball from its precipitous yester-season fall.  He’s the one player whose emergence as team leader is absolutely critical to Carolina resuming its status as a national powerhouse. 

And his name is not Harrison Barnes.

For all the pomp surrounding college basketball’s latest phenom, Kendall Marshall may prove, when all is said and done, to be Carolina’s most valuable 2010 acquisition.  For one he’ll be around a lot longer.  But more significant is the position he plays.  

For a team with ample size, ample depth and ample experience, last year’s collapse came down to two things: no point guard and no leader.  Kendall Marshall could be both. 

In fact, he’ll have to be.  As wonderful as Harrison Barnes might be, the best Carolina teams have never found their leaders on the wing.  

The outstanding scorers are always there, the ridiculous talent, the intimidating offensive power—the Michael Jordan's, Jerry Stackhouse's and Vince Carter's.  But Rashad McCants and Wayne Ellington don’t win you championships.  Excepting perhaps Jordan, the few UNC experiments with wing players at the helm haven’t been incredibly productive.  (Joseph Forte went 48-21 with zero ACC championships and one Final Four appearance, and Jason Capel’s team won all of eight games the following year.)

Carolina’s leaders are found either inside (George Lynch, Sean May, Tyler Hansbrough) or, most often and most successfully, at the point.  In fact, when you look at the great Carolina teams of the past 30 years they all have a quality leader at point guard.

The 1982 National Championship team was led by Jimmy Black, who went 105-24 while notching three ACC Championships and an NCAA Finals appearance during his tenure.

Kenny Smith’s '83-87 teams followed, making the Sweet 16 four years straight with two Elite 8 appearances and a 115-22 record.

While SG Donald Williams garnered Final Four MVP honors, the 1993 National Championship team was anchored by the toughness and determination of Derrick Phelps. Who won two ACC Championships, went to two more Sweet 16s and another Final Four, with a record of 114-27.

Raymond Felton had a less-stellar record (71-31), but was, along with Sean May, the heart of the 2005 Championship squad.

Ty Lawson was North Carolina’s winningest point guard ever with a record of 101-14. His teams went to the Elite 8 in each of his three years, went to the Final Four twice and won two ACC Championships and a National Title.  While Tyler Hansbrough was the National POY, even Roy Williams would tell you that Lawson was the one player the ’09 team couldn’t do without.

By another measure think of the most disappointing Carolina teams of the recent past, then look at who was running point. You’ll find mediocre talent at best and zero to little leadership across the board.

Jeff McInnis led mid-90s Carolina teams stacked with players like Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter to two 2nd-round NCAA exits.  His one Final Four appearance is hardly a failure, but it’s comparatively lackluster especially considering that when Ed Cota took the reins in ’96 he led Jamison and Carter to an ACC championship and the national semifinals and notched another ACC championship and two more Final Fours with teams of half the talent.

Only a repression of Freudian proportions could let Heels fans forget the great Brian Morrison/Adam Boone debacle of the early 2000s that resulted in the first 20-loss season in the history of the program.

And then there’s whatever happened last year.

Watching Larry Drew II and Dexter Strickland mangle the offense was like watching Greg Paulus try to take a charge from Danny Green—balls were everywhere. 

Strickland’s tunnel vision to the rim severely hampered his ability to get teammates involved and in sync, and Drew plays at a pace that is simply beyond his game.  To his credit Strickland was forced to play out of position, and Drew has always played best as a reliable backup. 

But it is enough to say that neither of them have the constitution to be a leader at the point, which is something good Carolina teams have always had.

Enter Kendall Marshall.

He seems to have everything the Heels are looking for.  Recruiters tout his leadership capabilities, his high basketball IQ, his court vision and decision-making as a distributor, his feel for the game.  Scouting reports are coated with words like “poise, confidence, toughness, purpose, understanding and control”—qualities that every leader should have and that returning Tar Heels desperately need.

And while early-season games aren’t exactly a reliable barometer for future performance Marshall has given Chapel Hill a lot to be optimistic about.  Through five games, he leads the team in assists and assist/turnover ratio and is second in steals (Dexter Strickland), all while playing the third-least minutes of anyone in the 10-man rotation.

The head-to-head comparison with Drew is staggering. In almost 10 minutes less per game Marshall has tallied 22 assists (Drew-16), 5 steals (Drew-2) and has amassed an assist/turnover ratio of 2.75 (Drew-1.45).  In fact, the only categories where Drew leads Marshall are rebounds, fouls, turnovers and a negligible PPG margin (4.4 to 4.2). 

Moreover, Marshall’s shooting percentages destroy those of Drew (FG—63.3 percent to 37.3; 3-pt—66.7 percent to 25; FT—62.5 percent to 57.1).

Given these numbers, it begs the question—what has to happen before Roy benches Drew? 

Carolina suffered through last season because there was no other option, but now you’ve got a four-year starter riding the pine and losing valuable experience by the minute.  There is even a case to be made that Drew performs better off the bench than as the lead guard (as a starter, his point production and shooting averages increased last year, but his assist/turnover ratio stagnated while rebounding and steals decreased, which points to his being less aggressive in the starting role).

It may not happen this year, and with Barnes likely headed to the league in 2011, it’ll take another couple of solid recruiting classes—but to the extent that Marshall emerges as a team leader, look for Carolina to similarly rise back to national prominence. 

Roy has some legitimate reservations about handing the reins to Marshall just yet—Drew is currently the better defender, and Marshall has performed poorly in end-of-half situations.  But let’s hope the transition happens sooner than later, because as long as Marshall is sidelined so are Carolina’s hopes for title contention.

So, if you’re prognosticating about how good this team or future teams can be, worry less about Barnes and keep an eye on the trajectory of Kendall Marshall.  For Roy Williams, the Marshall Law reads something like this: As goes Marshall, so goes the team.

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