BCS Projections Week 14: How LSU, Boise State and Oklahoma State Blew Up the BCS
Losses by top teams that happen this late in the college football season tend to have big ramifications for bowl bids as well as the top-to-bottom ranking of the Top 25 teams in the nation, according to the all-important BCS standings.
Three teams that were high in the BCS rankings suffered crippling losses this weekend, and now we're left to try to sort out how the Top 25 will shape up given teams like LSU, Boise State and Oklahoma State are bound to drop in this week's rankings.
Just how much of a change will we see in this week's BCS standings? Here we will go over each of the 25 spots in the standings and try to guess where each team will come in once the polls are all released.
This list will try to make sense out of a sometimes-nonsensical system of ranking the nation's best college football teams. Be sure to weigh in with your own thoughts on these proposed standings, as this is all open for discussion, at least until the BCS standings are released later tonight.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies
1 of 25
Northern Illinois heads into the MAC Conference Championship game riding the high of a nine-game winning streak and a perfect eight-win run through the MAC.
If ever there was a week for the Huskies to crack the Top 25, this is the week. They're coming off an impressive stomping of Eastern Michigan, a 71-3 exhibition that screamed for attention from the pollsters. Their biggest game will be against Miami (OH) next weekend for the MAC title, and winning the title game would seem to guarantee them a place in a quality bowl and, simultaneously, a Top 25 ranking.
24. UCF Knights
2 of 25
UCF has a place in the Conference USA title game after a very strong season, and they'll look to win Conference USA outright when they take on SMU next weekend.
They deserve a spot at the bottom of the Top 25.
23. Arizona Wildcats
3 of 25
Three-game losing streaks often mean the end for teams hoping to remain in the Top 25, but I think Arizona holds on to a spot towards the bottom of the standings thanks to the strength of the teams they fell to during this particular losing streak.
Stanford, USC and Oregon are a formidable stretch of Pac-10 opponents, and Arizona losing to those three shouldn't signal an end to their ranking. The loss to Oregon State earlier in the year is the worst indictment on the Wildcats, but a win against bitter rival Arizona State this week would further solidify their standing.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. Mississippi State Bulldogs
4 of 25
Mississippi State had a tough stretch where they lost to Alabama, then dropped a double-overtime thriller to Arkansas. Their four losses have all come in the tough SEC, and have come at the hands of four of the top teams in the conference, as they've also lost to Auburn and LSU.
Their recent win over Ole Miss means I think they move up a few spots to 22 this week.
21. Florida State Seminoles
5 of 25
Florida State has a date with Virginia Tech in the ACC title game thanks to North Carolina State being upset by Maryland, and the Seminoles also knocked off in-state rival Florida this weekend in convincing fashion.
That adds up to a jump of a few spots in the standings for FSU, and they will have a chance to climb even further if they can pull an upset and knock off Virginia Tech next weekend.
20. Utah Utes
6 of 25
Utah rebounded from back-to-back losses to TCU and Notre Dame by escaping with two victories over San Diego State and BYU, and I think they hold strong at No. 20 in the rankings as a result. I
t wasn't pretty as they had to erase a big deficit in the fourth quarter against rivals BYU, but they got the job done.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks
7 of 25
South Carolina handled in-state rival Clemson this weekend, and they have a date with Auburn next weekend in the SEC title game.
Their three previous losses, including a shocker against Kentucky, keeps them from being higher in the Top 25, but 19 is still a pretty solid spot in the polls.
18. Texas A&M Aggies
8 of 25
Texas A&M has beaten Nebraska and Texas in successive weeks, impressive wins against strong Big 12 teams.
Their three losses came against tough teams in Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Missouri, but otherwise they've been one of the stronger teams in their conference this year.
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys
9 of 25
Oklahoma State's dreams of a BCS bowl died in the annual Bedlam game: Their defense was punished to the tune of 47 points allowed as Oklahoma powered through for a 47-41 victory.
Oklahoma State will fall in the rankings as a result, and I think they'll be coming in at 17. They won a share of the Big 12 South title, but it's not what they had in mind given the position they were in heading into the week. An Oklahoma loss to Nebraska could bump them up higher in the polls, but for now, this seems about right for the Cowboys.
16. Alabama Crimson Tide
10 of 25
Alabama blew a big first-half lead in the Iron Bowl and dropped a huge game against Auburn, marking their third loss of the season and sending them down towards the bottom of the top 15 in the polls.
They seem sure to get invited to a decent bowl game, but three losses in the SEC is tough to swallow for a team that won the national title a year ago.
15. Virginia Tech Hokies
11 of 25
Virginia Tech has played extremely well in recent weeks, having rebounded nicely from an early-season slump that saw them lose to James Madison and Boise State in consecutive weeks to open the season.
Since then, they've been the class of the ACC and are one win away from stamping their ticket to the Orange Bowl as conference champion.
14. Nevada Wolf Pack
12 of 25
Nevada's big upset of Boise State has to move them up a number of spots in the polls, and I see them landing at No. 14. The loss to Hawaii keeps them from jumping higher in the national rankings, as well as jumping Boise State, but this is still an impressive potential seeding for the upstart Wolf Pack.
They are in uncharted waters in terms of the program's recent rankings.
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers
13 of 25
Nebraska stampeded all over Colorado this weekend, and I anticipate they'll move up a few spots as a result, given the drops expected for Alabama and Oklahoma State.
The Cornhuskers defense has played well all season long, and they have a shot at playing their way to a BCS bowl if they can beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game next weekend.
12. Missouri Tigers
14 of 25
Nebraska beat Missouri, but Missouri beat Oklahoma, so I keep the Tigers up on the Cornhuskers in my ranking in spite of the head-to-head outcome.
Missouri has reeled off three straight wins since a two-game losing streak, and I think they belong in the 12 spot on this week's BCS ranking.
11. LSU Tigers
15 of 25
Losing to Arkansas has to send the Tigers down the rankings a bit, and I think they land at No. 12 in the polls this week.
Their win over Alabama, as well as the rest of their strong play in the SEC, leaves them just on the outside looking in to the BCS bowl picture despite a strong season.
10. Boise State Broncos
16 of 25
This is where I see Boise State, previously No. 3 in the nation, falling after their heartbreaking loss to Nevada this weekend.
They count a win against Virginia Tech as a positive on their resume, but they definitely suffer from a lack of great competition in the WAC to keep them ranked higher despite a tough loss.
9. Oklahoma Sooners
17 of 25
Oklahoma won their big rivalry game against higher-ranked Oklahoma State and are now poised to head to the Big 12 title game for a date with Nebraska before they head to the Big Ten.
Oklahoma has regrouped after their loss to Missouri and are now in a strong position to move into the Top 10, with an eye on a BCS bowl if they can win the conference title game next weekend.
8. Arkansas Razorbacks
18 of 25
Arkansas knocking off LSU has them set up to be an at-large invitee to a BCS bowl, and I think they move to No. 8 in this week's rankings.
That's an impressive climb for a two-loss team, but they are the top team in the nation to have lost twice this year and deserve to be ranked as such. Quarterback Ryan Mallett has powered an impressive passing attack that has given SEC defenses fits all year long.
7. Michigan State Spartans
19 of 25
Michigan State passed their final regular-season test by knocking off Penn State on the road this weekend, but they still lag behind two identical-record Big Ten teams and come in at No. 7 in my version of the Top 25.
They've had a strong season in East Lansing, but I think they come in just a bit behind Wisconsin and Ohio State, despite handing the Badgers their only loss of the year.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
20 of 25
To me, Ohio State are the runners-up in the Big Ten BCS standings, as I see them coming in one place behind Wisconsin and getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl with a Big Ten tie-in.
Ohio State has played very well of late, knocking off Iowa and Michigan in consecutive weeks, but I don't think it's enough for them to jump over Wisconsin and gain a spot in the Rose Bowl.
5. Stanford Cardinal
21 of 25
Stanford has looked dominant this year behind the strength of a much-improved defense, as well as an offensive unit clicking with one of the nation's best quarterbacks under center in Andrew Luck.
Because of the dominance of another Pac-10 team, as well as the strength of unbeaten TCU, they won't likely have a shot at Rose Bowl glory, but they nonetheless should earn a strong top five ranking and an at-large bid to a posh BCS bowl.
4. Wisconsin Badgers
22 of 25
Wisconsin seems to emerge from the Big Ten dust as the conference's top team and earns a spot in the Rose Bowl, probably against TCU.
Their punishing running game poses a problem to any team they face, and their impressive performances in the Big Ten should be enough to get them up to No. 4 in the nation come this week's BCS standings.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
23 of 25
TCU has had an impressive unbeaten run through the 2010 season and they deserve to inherit Boise State's vacated spot at No. 3 in the rankings this week.
I don't know if they will crack the top two, even if either Oregon or Auburn loses this weekend, but they deserve consideration, nonetheless, thanks to their very strong season in the Mountain West.
All signs point to them facing off against the Big Ten champions in the Rose Bowl, and hopefully TCU has a chance to validate their high rankings throughout the season.
2. Auburn Tigers
24 of 25
Auburn exhibited toughness and explosiveness in coming back from a big first-half hole in the Iron Bowl to take down in-state rival Alabama, and they have one more test left in the SEC title game next weekend against South Carolina.
Cam Newton has been arguably the nation's best player, and he showed his considerable ability in leading the Tigers back against the Crimson Tide. I think Auburn survives the SEC title game and heads to a BCS Championship game against Oregon.
1. Oregon Ducks
25 of 25
Oregon remains the nation's top team heading into their rivalry game against Oregon State next weekend, a win away from meeting Auburn in Glendale for the national championship.
A loss could send TCU to a title game, but I don't think the Ducks will drop this one remaining obstacle to having a shot at college football's biggest prize.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
