Iron Bowl: Why Auburn, Can Newton Will Lose Out and Finish 11-3
Auburn is about to take a downhill tumble from the mountain and it begins Friday at Bryant Denny Stadium. The 2010 season has been a dream season thus far for Auburn fans but the dream is about to become a nightmare. The Tigers have been living on the edge and been lucky to this point, in some cases inexplicably. But Karma may be catching up to them. Click through to see 10 reasons why the tiger faithful need to brace themselves for the coming weeks.
Auburn's Defensive Secondary Is a Major Liability
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The Auburn secondary has been burned more often than coach Trooper Taylor chest bumps a player. It's not just a lack of cover skills, they just don't tackle well. There are veterans like Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil but older doesn't always equal better.
Auburn is currently ranked 98th in the country in pass defense, and this with one of the nations better pass rushers in Nick Fairley bearing down hard on the passers. In their last outing at Georgia they allowed Georgia freshman quarterback Aaron Murray to burn them for 273 yards and three touchdowns.
The next two quarterbacks Auburn faces are seniors who have a long track record of performance under pressure.
Meet Julio Jones
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Alabama receiver Julio Jones is making what might be his final appearance in front of the home crowd. After breaking his hand earlier in the year Julio stepped it up another notch. Juio is finally having the kind of year everyone expected when he signed out of high school. Jones has 65 catches for 885 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Georgia receiver AJ Green stung the Tigers for 164 yards and two touchdowns in the Tigers last outing. You can bet that's the minimum Jones is looking to get against his most hated rival. In 2009 Jones took over the game in the fourth quarter leading to the come from behind win. The 2010 version of Julio Jones is much better than that but Auburn's secondary isn't.
Up Next, South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery
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Once Julio Jones is through with the Tigers up next is what many consider the best receiver in the SEC South Carolina receiver Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery lit up the Auburn secondary with eight catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns earlier in the season. No doubt with an SEC title on the line his motivation will push him harder. Jeffery has 70 catches for 1210 yards and 7 touchdowns against the best defenses the SEC can offer. Auburn isn't one of those better defenses, and they aren't improving.
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Distractsion, Distractions, Distractions
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It seems where ever Cam Newton has gone there has been trouble. They say success is the worlds best deodorant. That may be true to some extent, but it doesn't change a lie to the truth, and eventually the truth always comes out.
Auburn is dealing with distractions from the Cam Newton NCAA investigation, from major boosters being interviewed by the NCAA, from an FBI investigation involving still another booster. Lawyers are being hired by everyone, including Newton. It wouldn't surprise me if black helicopters started circling Opelika at night and the cows that roam around the Auburn campus started disappearing.
While Alabama and South Carolina prepare in relative anonymity the Auburn Tigers and their coaches have to wonder where their program and their careers are headed, or if all their hard earned wins will be vacated after the season.
The one person who probably isn't too worried: Cam Newton, he plans on taking the first train out of town to the NFL draft.
Auburn's Best Defensive Player May Be on a Short Leash
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Meet Nick Fairley is widely recognized as the dirtiest player in the SEC, possibly in the nation. This guy has websites dedicated to his nastiness, and not in a good way.
His downright disgusting play in the Georgia game is no doubt something every referee in the nation has seen, including the ones that will be working Auburn's next three games.
If he plays per his normal standard of late hits and cheap shots to the knee the zebra's might be quick on the draw to get him out of the game. A suspension in one game automatically nixes him from the first half of the next. Against Georgia Trooper Taylor was desperately trying to get Fairley off the field before he became the third Auburn lineman to be ejected.
Some have openly questioned the SEC home office, suggesting that if Auburn were not a national title contender the SEC would have suspended Fairley for his behavior in the Georgia game. If he continues the late hits and pile driving quarterbacks into the ground and Auburn is knocked out of the national championship hunt, The SEC home office might get a lot braver.
Meet Aubie, Who May Double As The Replay Ref at Jordan Hare Stadium
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How else can you explain the decisions from the replay booth at Jordan Hare Stadium? I mean seriously, I've watched this game a long time and I've never seen a ref call a touchdown when the ball never even got close to the goal line. I've certainly not seen the replay booth confirm such a call. The onside kick against Georgia last week was clearly short and was helped across the line by an Auburn player. Aubie has no shame.
Auburn has enjoyed the home field advantage eight out of eleven games. Road games included stops at such valley of death locations as Starkville, Oxford, and Lexington. Cam Newton has enjoyed partying with his adoring fans after every touchdown, but the next three games, he won't be among friends and Auburn hasn't played that well on the road.
This will be Auburn's first trip to the now expanded and enclosed Bryant Denny Stadium. The noise level is several notches above what they have experienced to date.
Auburn Lacks Championship Experience
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Though Chizik was on the Texas staff as co-defensive coordinator in 2005 when Vince Young won the national title for them, this is hist first chance to call the shots. In fact if results count for anything his defense gave up 38 points in the championship. Chizik's halftime decision against Georgia to go for an onside kick seemed brilliant, because it worked. But it wasn't necessary and may be signs of him over thinking and over coaching.
Bottom line Gene Chizik and his most prized possession, offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn are making their first trip up this particular mountain where the air gets thin and the microscope gets focused on any flaw. For Auburn its going to be a long fall to the bottom.
Too Much Focus on Beating Alabama
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Make no mistake, this is Nick Saban's Alabama. Most kids on both campuses barely even know who Bear Bryant was, but the powers that be at Auburn who call the shots are still seething over the domination he held over their program and they don't want Nick Saban to resurrect that.
Auburn has always put too much emphasis on beating Alabama relative to bigger goals like winning national championships. Once they stumble at the stadium named after the Bear they will crumble in the SEC title game to a South Carolina team that had them beat earlier in the year only to fumble away the game in the fourth quarter.
Division in The Auburn Program
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Its a well known and documented fact that Auburn University is an institution dominated by men of power. Former coach Pat Dye, trustees James Rane and Bobby Lowder have wielded enormous power and influence over the sports program and the university as a whole. They were in charge last time the Tigers got in trouble with the NCAA and little has changed since, except that they finally got rid of that pesky Tommy Tubberville who always seemed to be in their way.
Rumor's were flying after the Georgia game that the University president and some coaches wanted to Sit Cam Newton due to the NCAA investigation into his possible solicitation of funds. Any time a program is divided, It will eventually show up on the field.
Cam Newton: The NCAA Hammer Could Fall at Any Point.
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When it comes to Auburn on the field, it's all about Cam Newton. The entire offense is basically Cam Run this way, Cam run that way, Cam throw the ball, Cam go out for a pass, or cam hand off on a reverse.
Without him taking plays that might go for nothing and turning them into forty yard first downs Auburn with its weak defense would be struggling to get bowl eligible, instead they are 120 minutes of football from the national title game.
The allegations about Cam are serious, the NCAA investigation is moving at light speed, and the involvement of the FBI who may have heard something unexpected during a fraud investigation means the NCAA could pick up the phone at any point and end Cam Newtons college career and his Heisman Campaign.
Though many expect him to play against Alabama, one never knows when the NCAA will come a calling, and one has to question how focused and how innocent Cam Newton is since he has now lawyer-ed up.
Without Cam Newton Auburn just isn't a very good team.
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