New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2 Patriots Writers Talk About Game
Anytime the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts get together, everyone finds a soap box and shares their opinion, whether it be about the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning rivalry or any other number of topics.
There are so many opinions, that sometimes, it's hard to keep track of them all...okay, it's impossible.
So why not get two opinions in one place?
I had the pleasure of joining Philadelphia Eagles Featured Columnist Lou DiPietro for a "B/R FC Showdown", and the article turned out so well that it inspired me to do a similar article for the upcoming Pats-Colts showdown.
I asked New England Patriots Featured Columnist Phil Shore to join me in a friendly debate/discussion about the upcoming heavyweight match-up, and we each formulated a pair of questions. Both of us answered each others questions as well as our own questions, and here's what we came up with.
Erik's First Question
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The Patriots have talked about how quick the Colts defense is a lot this week. Do you think that bodes poorly for the short-game oriented Patriots?
Phil Says...
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It may make things tougher, but it isn’t unbeatable. They'll just have to make some minor adjustments. In the running game, the focus should be more on BenJarvus Green-Ellis instead of Danny Woodhead.
Where neither is an elite back like ones the Colts have faced (Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew), it may be more effective to pound it up the gut with Green-Ellis than running sweeps with Woodhead. Misdirection could also be extremely helpful, so more playaction plays would be wise.
Speaking of their weakness up the middle, look for Brady to extend the field a bit with some plays over the top for Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez.
Where the Colts are good at getting from sideline to sideline, the Patriots do have strengths going up the middle. The Pats will still play offense like they normally would, but there could be more emphasis on BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Hernandez, and Gronkowski.
Erik Says...
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Spacing has been an issue for the Patriots since Randy Moss left down. I could go on for days about how defenses are playing closer to the line against the Patriots now without Moss, but everyone else already has.
The best way to counter the speed of the Colts' defense is, as you eluded, to "outphysical" them. I'm looking for a lot of the two tight end sets we've already seen from the Patriots this season, featuring Rob Gronkowski, Alge Crumpler and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
As much as I love what Aaron Hernandez has done this season, I think this is another game where he'll be taking a back seat. He's almost exclusively a receiving tight end, and the Colts will be thinking pass every time he's on the field. With Rob Gronkowski and how well-rounded he is, you can never really tell. He lined up with his hand in the ground on one of his touchdown catches against the Steelers.
To your point about stretching the field, it's a double-edged sword. The Patriots have to try to do it occasionally to make the Colts respect the down-field threats, but if Tom Brady is holding onto the ball waiting for routes to develop, that could mean a long day for the offensive tackles going up against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
What good is the Colts' defensive team speed if they don't know what to defend? I don't think the Patriots are going to do any specific one thing against the Colts to beat them. If they can keep the Colts defense guessing and wear them out physically, the Patriots could have a really good day against these guys.
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Erik's Second Question
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What’s more important for the Patriots defense this week: creating quick pressure on Manning, or blanketing his receiving options?
Phil Says...
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This one seems easy: It is more important, and more effective to create quick pressure on Manning. Look, New England is not very good at either the pass rush or the pass coverage. But they need to be aggressive.
The Colts don’t give up a lot of sacks—they’ve only given up two or more sacks in a game three times this season. But in those three games, they are 1-2. Along with Arian Foster abusing the Colts rush defense, what the Texans did on defense was apply constant pressure on Manning. They were constantly after him, and it’s part of the reason why the Texans drafted Mario Williams over Vince Young or Reggie Bush.
Don’t give Manning time: he’ll make adjustments in his mind and he’ll find somebody open. All he needs is a second of somebody open and he’ll get him the ball. But if he’s on the run thinking about avoiding the sack, he won’t have that time and calmness to find the open guy, and he’ll throw more balls away, shortening the downs.
The Pats don’t have a dominating defense. Take your chances and make the receivers beat you.
Erik Says...
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Beating the Colts' offense isn't easy. With that being said, several different methods have been employed this season with varying results. The Chiefs, under the tutelage of former Patriots DC Romeo Crennel, went with a three-man rush and put eight guys in coverage. They were able to hold Manning to just 26 completions on 44 attempts without a touchdown, and even forced an interception where Manning threw it right to the defender.
But the Patriots don't have the talent in coverage that the Chiefs have with Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr and Eric Berry.
In the first game against the Texans, Manning still had three touchdowns and 433 yards even though they lost. Granted, it took him 57 attempts to get there, but that was a game that the Colts never really seemed like they were out of it until near the end. The feeling that Manning could pull off the comeback never really went away.
Dropping seven or eight into coverage has proved to be effective, but it may not work as well since the Patriots currently only feature four cornerbacks on their roster, and have kept Darius Butler off the active roster for the past two weeks as a healthy scratch.
Safeties Patrick Chung and Sergio Brown will probably be asked to play a physical game off the line of scrimmage, with James Sanders and Brandon Meriweather back in coverage with the cornerbacks.
Phil's First Question
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The Colts rushing defense is a weakness, and the teams that can really expose it do well. In six wins, the Colts allow 95.5 yards on the ground on average. In three losses it becomes an astonishing 208.7 yards. Is New England’s running game good enough to expose the Colts?
Erik Says...
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Absolutely. The Patriots’ running game has done more damage to better defenses this year; just ask the Minnesota Vikings and the “Williams Wall” that barely laid a finger on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the second half of that game.
Best of all, Logan Mankins is back and brings with him that little extra shot of piss and vinegar that Dan Connolly just doesn’t have. That extra aggression comes in real handy in the running game, and he should have a lot of fun getting physical with the Colts’ sub-par interior defensemen.
Those are interesting numbers you bring up about the Colts’ defense vs. the run, but I’d say it’s even more important that the Patriots dominate on the ground when you consider that they rush for 120 yards per game in their victories, and have won only one game when rushing for under 100 yards. Both of their losses, though, came on unproductive days for their running game.
But against a Colts’ run defense with more holes than swiss cheese, it shouldn’t be too hard to do some damage.
Phil Says...
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It’s kind of surprising, but the Patriots average 4.1 yards per carry, which is a good number. BenJarvus Green Ellis averages 4.2 yards per carry and Danny Woodhead has 5.0 yards per carry.
New England has actually only had two truly ugly rushing games, against the Jets (2.6 yards per carry) and Chargers (2.3 yards per carry). Those are two top-5 defenses against the rush; anyone would play poorly against them.
They haven’t always been pretty, or extremely effective. And the Patriots’ identity is as a passing team, so when the passing game isn’t so hot people wonder why they don’t run the ball and say there must be low confidence in that unit. But the numbers suggest they’re more solid than people expect.
They won’t explode on the Colts like Houston, Jacksonville, or Philly, but they’ll do well.
Phil's Second Question
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Which quarterback means more to his team: Peyton Manning or Tom Brady?
Erik Says...
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In this match-up, it’s pretty close, but I’d say Manning is more important to his team.
The injuries to Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai have only made this season tougher for Manning, who has a league-high 386 pass attempts at this point in the season, so once again the production of the offense is on his shoulder.
That becomes even more apparent when you factor in their offensive production this season. They rank in the top ten in all the offensive passing categories, and despite rankings in the mid-20s for their rush attack (including attempts), they rank fourth overall in points and yards on offense.
Yes, the Colts defense is actually playing better statistically than the Patriots defense, but New England’s low rankings come from letting a few teams get some points late in games. What Brady has that Manning doesn’t, however, is a healthy running game. That makes all the difference in the world for a quarterback.
Phil Says...
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Peyton Manning is extremely important to the Colts. We don’t know what they’d be like without him, and as a fan of the game I wouldn’t want to find out. And Brain Hoyer is a better backup to Brady than Curtis Painter is to Manning. But Manning does have better talent around him.
Yes there have been a lot of injuries, but guys continually seem to step up. Mike Hart has had some big games in place of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.
We’ve seen when Brady isn’t at his best, and the Patriots players aren’t good enough to pick up the slack.
Brady was off his mark against Cleveland, and the Patriots receivers didn’t help him (save for Hernandez’s amazing rebound touchdown catch). And with the passing game ineffective, and while it’s not bad, the Patriots cannot and will not depend on pounding the ball in the rushing game. They’ll just keep throwing. It’s a snowball effect.
The defense isn’t as good as it used to be, and can’t contain opponents when the offense is struggling, like the Ravens D or the Jets D.
So for the Patriots to succeed, this season, they need Brady to be at his best. When he’s at his best he makes everyone better. When he’s not, well things fall apart.
Join The Debate
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Share your thoughts on these and any other Patriots-Colts related topics in the comments section. We look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Thanks for reading!
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