Felix Hernandez Wins AL Cy Young Award: 10 Reasons King Felix Is Deserving
For the second year in a row, the writers got it right. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America is known to be comprised of a lot of grizzled old veterans who shun sabermetrics. Just look no further than Derek Jeter winning a Gold Glove for proof. But they got it right with Felix Hernandez.
The Mariners ace made history by becoming the pitcher with the fewest wins (in a full season) to capture the Cy Young award. King Felix, who signed a big, long-term contract extension last offseason, won the award despite a record of 13-12.
Furthermore, it wasn't even close. Hernandez got 21 of the 28 first-place votes and 167 points in all, winning by more than 50 points over second-place finisher David Price of the Rays.
In many previous seasons, the pitcher with the most wins got the award almost by default. Perhaps the problem is that the award is not "pitcher of the year" or "most valuable pitcher," but is instead named after the guy with the most wins ever. He is also the one with the most losses ever, too, by the way.
The pitcher with the most wins in the AL in 2010 was the Yankees' CC Sabathia, who went 21-7. He finished third in the voting.
By winning, Hernandez received an automatic $1 million raise in salary next year to $11 million. He also earned annual $500,000 raises after that to $19 million in 2012, $20 million in 2013 and $20.5 million in 2014.
So let's take a look at why King Felix won this award, most likely angering the Joe Morgans of the world and making Yankees fans irate.
1. Wins are Meaningless
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Wins are important to a team, of course, but as a judge of individual accomplishment? They are meaningless.
That's because there are so many variables beyond the control of the pitcher which contribute to the final outcome of a baseball game that it simply is not fair to base a starting pitcher's effectiveness on W-L.
One important variable is...
2. Lack of Run Support
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In 10 of the games King Felix started, the last-place Mariners were either shut out or held to one run. In fact, Hernandez had the worst run support of any starting pitcher in the Majors this season.
Meanwhile, Sabathia averaged 7.3 runs of support, and Price was right around seven.
Check out these pitchers who all had winning records despite ERAs near five this season: Kyle Kendrick, Chris Narveson, Joe Blanton and Jason Hammel. Phil Huighes had 18 wins despite an ERA around two runs higher than Hernandez. Carl Pavano, Ervin Santana and Bronson Arroyo each won 17 games despite an ERA near for, and Brett Cecil went 15-7 with an ERA of 4.22.
In fact, if you used the W-L record to judge pitchers, you would think that Randy Wolf was just as good as Hernandez in 2010, as each went 13-12.
It's all about the runs. And the King just didn't get any. That's not his fault.
3. He is a Workhorse
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King Feliz led the AL in innings pitched (249 2-3). In fact, he needed one more inning to match NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay(notes) for most in the majors, but the Mariners skipped his last start of the season.
Last season is not relevant to this year's voting, but the fact that he was less than two innings behind AL-leader Justin Verlander in innings pitched in 2009 means that Felix has thrown more innings than any AL pitcher over the past two seasons combined.
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4. He Is Almost Unhittable
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This is a slight exaggeration, but it is true that Hernandez held AL opponents to the lowest batting average at a paltry .212. So while he can be hit, he's just very hittable. Just ask AL hitters who struck out over eight times per nine innings against the King.
The King led the major leagues in ERA at 2.27.
5. It's Only Fair — 19 Wins In 2009 & No Award
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So you still think that a pitcher should be judged by wins? Well, that's stupid but OK—in that case, are we going to give Hernandez the 2009 Cy Young award instead of Greinke? After all, Felix led the league with 19 wins, three more than the Royals ace.
No, of course not. Greinke deserved the award last year just as Hernandez deserves it now. Repeat after me, baseball fans: Wins are meaningless as an individual stat. It is a team stat.
6. WAR — Huh — Yeah. Say it Again Y'all
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What is it good for? With apologies to Edwin Starr, in this case, it's good for a lot. WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is a stat that measures how many more wins a player gives his team above what would be expected from an average major league player.
Only Cliff Lee and Justin Verlander had a higher WAR than King Felix. Lee was worth 7.1 wins above replacement, Verlander was at 6.3 and Hernandez was at 6.2.
Meanwhile Sabathia was worth more than a full run less than the King, and Price was almost two full runs behind him.
WAR is by no means a perfect stat, but combined with everything else, it helps build the case for Felix.
7. Let's Eliminate Fielding and Ballpark Factors
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xFIP stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. The reason this is important is that it eliminates two additional variables that are outside the pitcher's control: the defense behind him and the ballpark he's pitching in.
So, for example, a pitcher starting in San Diego's Petco Park is expected to do better because that is an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark. Since the pitcher doesn't pick his park, unless he's a free agent, nor did he have anything to do with the dimensions of that park and can't pick his fielders, it is not fair to give credit nor detract from a pitcher's performance over things that are beyond his control.
Only Francisco Liriano and Cliff Lee had a better xFIP than Hernandez's 3.04.
Is the stat perfect? Once again, no. But the point of all these sabermetric stats is to judge a player based on the things that are within his control.
8. The Whiff and The WHIP
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King Felix was second in the AL in strikeouts and was better than all of the major contenders in K/9. And he did this while issuing fewer walks per nine innings than the other major contenders, too.
Meanwhile, for those of you who like WHIP (Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitched) as a stat (I do not), only Cliff Lee was better than Felix. Sabathia and Price were at 1.19 and Hernandez was at 1.06 (Lee finished at 1.00).
In fact, if you are following along, it would be easier to make a case for Cliff Lee as the Cy Young winner than it would for Sabathia.
9. King Felix Beat Better Teams
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As Yahoo Sports' Ben Walker points out, "Hernandez went 7-4 against playoff teams and was at his best against the high-scoring Yankees, going 3-0 while holding New York to one run in 26 innings with 31 strikeouts."
Meanwhile, both Price and Sabathia pitched for playoff teams, yet went only 3-2 against playoff teams during the season. Plus, as Walker writes, "The big lefty (Sabathia) went 10-1 this season against Seattle, Baltimore and Kansas City, the three last-place teams in the AL."
10. Even David Price Said Hernandez Deserved It
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Ben Walker of Yahoo Sports had this quote from Price:
“I feel like they got it right,” Price said on a conference call from Nashville, Tenn. “Felix, I thought he deserved it, even though he didn’t have a lot of wins. You can’t really control all that. You can’t control the offense, and the hitters and stuff like that.”
This is clearly a guy who gets it.
“The numbers he put up—those were pretty ridiculous numbers outside of the won-loss column,” he said. “I feel as if Felix was on a different team— if he was on the Yankees or something like that—he’s going to win quite a few ballgames.”
As for Sabathia, I didn't see any quotes from him. But he should keep in mind that last year, it was Hernandez who had the most wins in the AL, and yet it was Zack Greinke who took home the award.
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