UFC 123 Breakdowns and Predictions

The Ultimate Fighting Championship comes to the Palace of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Michigan with a card full of exciting fights.

In the main event, two of the Light Heavyweight elite will do battle to see who emerges back into the title picture.

The co-main event features a long awaited rubber match between two iconic legends of the sport. The rest of the card includes future superstars and possible title contenders.

The time has come once again for you to feast on some manly induced knowledge in preparation for the fights on Saturday. Snatch a cold beverage out the fridge and get comfortable. It’s breakdown time.

As always, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson Vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida

Key Victories :

Jackson (Chuck Liddell, Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, Ricardo Arona, Igor Vovchanchyn, Kevin Randleman, Murilo Rua, Murilo Bustamante, Matt Lindland, Ikuhisa Minowa, Keith Jardine)

Machida (Mauricio Rua, Rich Franklin, Rashad Evans, B.J. Penn, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, Kazuhiro Nakamura)

Forecast :

In a bout between title contenders, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida look to rebound in a big way from previous losses.

After punch-line jokes and tremendous trash talk, Jackson was quieted by former Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans in a bout that felt more like a sedative for wily fans than an actual grudge match.

In October 2009, some say Machida got an early Christmas present with the atrocious scoring in his bout with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Well, the present was repacked and returned at UFC 113. Shogun swatted an overaggressive Machida like a fly in the very first round to win his first major MMA title.

One of these Light Heavyweight elites will march back into title discussion, and the other will plummet down the hierarchy with consecutive defeats. Can Rampage slay the dragon? It almost sounds like a Hollywood film pitch. Let’s find out!

Fighting out of Irvine, California, Jackson usually trains in the UK at Wolfslair MMA Academy but has recently moved his camp back to the states. His regular team includes guys like Michael Bisping and Cheick Kongo. In 30 wins, Jackson has ended 14 by knockout.

The year 2007 was the beginning of the Memphis native’s rise to stardom. He defeated Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson that year to become the Light Heavyweight Champion and unify the UFC and Pride titles.

Born in Salvador, Brazil, Machida is a 3rd dan black belt in Shotokan Karate and a black belt in BJJ. He trains at Team Black House with Anderson Silva, Jose Aldo, Junior Dos Santos, and the legendary Nogueira brothers. Before losing to Shogun, Machida had amassed an undefeated record with 16 straight wins.

The year 2009 was his breakout year as he took victories over Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, and Shogun Rua.

Keys to Victory :

If Jackson stays in the open, Machida will pick him apart with kicks all day long. Jackson needs to push the pace and pressure the former champion with vicious combinations. Lately, Jackson's problems have accumulated from his one-dimensional attack. Instead of setting up his offense, he tends to sit in the pocket winging hooks.

This attack has worked in the past against top notch veterans, but Machida brings a far more enigmatic style than any of Jackson's previous opponents. Jackson has to vary up his Boxing. If he can find success at utilizing jabs and straights, it will make things much easier in disguising one of those trademark hooks.

With his improved Boxing, one of the most important aspects of fighting has been completely eradicated from Jackson's game. What happened to the old Rampage who also relied on his underrated wrestling abilities to win fights? It would be nice to see a vintage performance involving a blended attack of striking and takedowns.

Jackson doesn't have to complete the takedown. He could use a single to close the distance on Machida and utilize his dirty Boxing.

Machida has to be patient against a dangerous Boxer like Jackson. Another dent in his chin would have "The Dragon" looking more like Littlefoot from The Land Before Time. Machida needs to stay on the outside and frustrate Jackson with kicks. When Jackson rushes with wild exchanges, Machida can pinpoint openings and deliver effective counters.

He'll have to beware of Jackson's rolling hooks. These punches have claimed greats like Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva. After countering, Machida needs to be on his bike to avoid getting pinned against the cage. Against the fence, Jackson would have more opportunities to land and a chance to work his dirty Boxing.

The takedown Machida secured on Tito Ortiz at UFC 84 was a thing of beauty. If timed right, he could have similar success against the grappling negligent Jackson. 

Prediction :

This is a tougher fight to call than most give it credit for. An interesting observation coming into this bout is how Machida handles adversity. He is coming off his first ever loss in devastating fashion. Some fighters struggle to rebound after such a letdown. Will Machida shy away from exchanges? Against Jackson, he faces a dynamic Boxer with crushing power.

We have all seen how Jackson bounces back from adversity. After losing his Light Heavyweight Title and being arrested in 2008, Jackson came back and soundly avenged his previous losses to Wanderlei Silva at UFC 92.

Let's keep things lively and go with the main event for this card's upset special. Machida will set the tone early in the fight on the outside with leg kicks and counter punches. Things will go according to plan for "The Dragon" at first, but a mistimed counter will be his surprising downfall when Jackson lands the hook and picks up the second round KO.

(To gamblers, this prediction is not responsible for any lost homes, cars, or engagement rings. Don't do it! Machida Karate is for real.)

B.J. Penn Vs. Matt Hughes

Key Victories :

Penn (Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Sean Sherk, Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, Jens Pulver, Matt Serra, Renzo Gracie, Joe Stevenson, Caol Uno, Din Thomas)

Hughes (Georges St. Pierre, B.J. Penn, Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg, Chris Lytle, Matt Serra, Carlos Newton, Hayato Sakurai, Joe Riggs, Renzo Gracie, Ricardo Almeida, Joe Doerksen, Akihiro Gono)

Forecast :

In January 2004, B.J. Penn's legacy began when he submitted Matt Hughes to become the UFC Welterweight Champion. The look on Hughes' face echoed the shock that resonated throughout the arena. After five consecutive title defenses, his streak was finally ended in dominating fashion by a Lightweight.

There was no immediate rematch as Penn opted to leave the UFC due to contractual disputes. With the newly crowned champ gone, Hughes went on to reclaim his Welterweight Title. Both fighters met again in September 2006 for the Welterweight Title when Penn stepped in to replace an injured Georges St. Pierre.

Hughes weathered an early storm and took vengeance on Penn with a round three TKO stoppage. Now, as two legends of the sport, Penn and Hughes will do battle for the final time in a rubber match that is over four years in the making. It's time to find out who gets the final word in this legendary rivalry.

Born in Kailua, Hawaii, Penn is a black belt in BJJ. He trains with his own team at BJ Penn's MMA. With only three years of BJJ training, Penn became the first non-Brazilian to win the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship in 2000. Along with Randy Couture, he is the only fighter in UFC history to hold titles in separate weight classes.

He is coming off back to back losses to current Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar.

Fighting out of Hillsboro, Illinois, Hughes trains and coaches at the H.I.T. Squad with Robbie Lawler. He is a two-time Division I All-American Wrestler. In May, Hughes was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame. He currently holds the record for most Welterweight Title defenses (7) and most wins in the UFC (18).

After losing to Thiago Alves in June 2008, Hughes has picked up three consecutive victories over Ricardo Almeida, Renzo Gracie, and Matt Serra.

Keys to Victory :

Regardless of weight disparities, Penn has always been one of the best Boxers in the sport. Hughes dropped Ricardo Almeida at UFC 117, but Almeida doesn't possess half the technical prowess of Baby Jay. Penn needs to keep the fight standing and outpoint Hughes on the feet.

In the first two rounds at UFC 63, Penn had his way with Hughes on the outside with multiple combinations and solid takedown defense. The takedown will be the deciding factor in this bout. Penn has to put forth enough offense and circle away to avoid clinch situations. Hughes has strong takedowns from the clinch.

Against Hughes, Penn may actually want to utilize a sprawl to avoid initial takedown attempts. His takedown defense is legendary, but Hughes doesn't mind shooting for a single and patiently working to secure the finish. This swung the fight in Hughes' favor in the last meeting. Penn can't let Hughes control the pace of the fight.

If Hughes doesn't want to get carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey, he shouldn't take the road less traveled by trying to outbox Penn. Despite improved standup, Hughes doesn't have the Boxing chops to outpoint Penn for three rounds. He needs to engage in just enough striking to setup the takedown.

Penn's cardio has long been a question mark in the Welterweight division. Hughes, who has always had great endurance, needs to push Penn's gas tank by being persistent with takedowns. He can't give Penn a chance to setup his offense.

The primary gameplan for Hughes is to slow the fight down. He did a great job in the second meeting of constantly forcing Penn to defend the single. Penn has tremendous flexibility, and it will always take a great effort to drag him down. Hughes has to patiently fight Penn's flexibility and finish takedowns.

Prediction :

Hughes won't present the same stylistic problems brought by Georges St. Pierre and Frankie Edgar. Both fighters were able to setup the takedown by contending on the feet. Despite his impressive performance against Almeida, Hughes' three round slopfest with Gracie still weighs heavily.

With Penn coming in at a lighter weight, it's hard to see him gassing out in a three round fight. It took Hughes over two rounds to finally secure a controlled takedown in the second meeting. He'll need more than that in a fight that doesn't include championship rounds.

Coming off back to back losses, Penn has an opportunity to renew his career against the same guy who catapulted his legacy in the beginning. Could it be fate?

Look for Penn to put forth solid takedown defense and outpoint Hughes on the feet. It will be a long night for "Country Breakfast" as Penn boxes his way to a unanimous decision.

Gerald Harris Vs. Maiquel Falcao

Key Victories :

Harris (Mario Miranda, John Salter, Dave Branch)

Falcao (Wendres Carlos da Silva)

Forecast :

In a bout featuring future faces in the Middleweight division, Gerald Harris welcomes UFC first-timer Maiquel Falcao.

Fighting out of Denver, Colorado, Harris trains at Grudge Training Center with Rashad Evans, Shane Carwin, and Nate Marquardt. His style is predominantly Wrestling, and the majority of his wins have come by knockout.

Some remember Harris from his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, where he was defeated by Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah. Harris is currently on a 10 fight win streak. At UFC 116, he KO'd Dave Branch with a Sportscenter Top 10 slam.

Fighting out of Curitiba, Brazil, Falcao is a member of the legendary Chute Boxe camp that has bred warriors like Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Wanderlei Silva, and Anderson Silva. The camp currently includes Fabricio Werdum, Evangelista Santos, and Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos. Falcao's style consists of Muay Thai and BJJ.

In 25 wins, he has racked up 24 finishes, with the majority coming by KO (21). Since his last loss in December 2008, Falcao has earned seven consecutive first round stoppages. At Arena Gold Fights 2, he TKO'd Wendres Carlos da Silva.

Keys to Victory :

Harris should be careful and avoid unnecessary exchanges. Falcao carries with him the acclaimed berserker mentality that is long linked to Chute Boxe students. Harris had best be patient if he doesn't want his dome removed from his shoulders. He needs to keep his combinations simple and counter Falcao's aggression with takedowns.

On the ground, Harris is a powerful wrestler with nasty ground and pound. He should control Falcao and work to transition to a good enough position to begin his onslaught. Falcao has three submission victories, but he shouldn't present a major threat from his back.

The kill or be killed Chute Boxe style is fun to watch, but it won't always cut it in the UFC. Against a wrestler like Harris, Falcao has to be careful in his pursuit. Harris will likely look for takedowns, and bull-headed aggression isn't the best defense. Falcao needs to keep the fight standing and best the exchanges.

Harris isn't the most technical striker, but he is an incredibly strong and athletic fighter. His power should be respected. Falcao has to also watch out for takedowns when throwing knees and kicks. He can't afford to get caught throwing anything sluggish.

If taken down, Falcao needs to be active from the bottom and constantly look for opportunities to scramble. There should be plenty of openings when Harris postures up to rain down damage.

Prediction :

This is a terrible style matchup for Falcao. Barring a crazy haymaker, Harris shouldn't have trouble sniffing out the takedowns and notching up the second round TKO stoppage.

Phil Davis Vs. Tim Boetsch

Key Victories :

Davis (Brian Stann, Alexander Gustafsson, Rodney Wallace)

Boetsch (David Heath, Michael Patt, Todd Brown)

Forecast :

The time has come for Light Heavyweight prospect Phil Davis to make his way into the main card spotlight.

Similar to Jon Jones, the UFC has done a great job getting Davis the necessary experience and possibly building him into a future championship contender. We'll see if the hype continues when he meets Tim Boetsch.

Fighting out of Chula Vista, California, Davis trains with Team Lloyd Irvin and American Kickboxing Academy. As a freelancer, His training partners include Brandon Vera, Cain Velasquez, and Josh Koscheck. He has also recently worked with top Heavyweight contender Junior Dos Santos.

In college, Davis was a four-time NCAA Division I All-American Wrestler at Penn State. He finished fifth in the nation at 197 lbs in 2007. His impressive grappling credentials also includes a No Gi World Jiu-Jitsu Championship, which he won as a blue belt in 2009.

Davis continued his undefeated ways at UFC 117 with a unanimous decision victory over Rodney Wallace.

Boetsch was born in Lincolnville, Maine. He trains in Washington with Matt Hume's AMC team. His style consists of Wrestling and Jeet Kune Do. The majority of his wins have come by knockout (6).

After losing to Jason Brilz at UFC 96, Boetsch was released from the promotion. He was recently re-signed and made good on his second opportunity by earning a unanimous decision victory over Todd Brown. Since the loss to Brilz, Boetsch has picked up four straight wins.

Keys to Victory :

Even though he is the more talented fighter, Davis doesn't want to get caught slipping on the main stage. While he isn't a top level fighter, Boetsch is no joke either. Davis will have opportunities to test out multiple facets of his game. He needs to mix things up on the feet and look for the takedown. Boetsch would be at a great disadvantage fending from his back.

From top, Davis can seek out submissions and work Boetsch over with ground and pound. This gameplan wins all day for Davis. He needs to stick with his bread and butter and avoid wild exchanges.

The standup will be Boetsch's best chance for survival in this fight. He's a decent wrestler in his own right, but he doesn't possess the technical chops that Davis has. It will be an incredible challenge in defending Davis' takedowns, but Boetsch can make things harder on him by utilizing good footwork and changing angles.

If taken down, Boetsch has to put up a scrappy effort to get back to his feet. He'll have to be careful in grappling transitions. Davis is great at sniffing out submissions, particularly from the front-headlock position. He cinched up a nasty anaconda choke on Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 112.

Boetsch has to stay off his back and find a way to win the standup exchanges. Sprawl and brawl isn't the best term to use, but it may be Boetsch's only chance for victory. He has to force Davis into unnecessary exchanges.

Prediction :

It's a shame Boetsch's UFC return has quickly come to this. He has presented fans with some entertaining scraps in the past. Who could ever forget the merciless street beating he gave David Heath at UFC 81? Ok, most of you probably don't remember, but it was shocking to see a grown man thrown around so effortlessly.

Unfortunately, Boetsch will likely take the beating this time out. He'll put up a solid three round resistance, but Davis will outclass him in all aspects en route to a lopsided unanimous decision.

George Sotiropoulos Vs. Joe Lauzon

Key Victories :

Sotiropoulos (Joe Stevenson, Kurt Pellegrino, Jason Dent)

Lauzon (Jens Pulver, Jeremy Stephens, Mike Brown)

Forecast :

After defeating Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino, many thought George Sotiropoulos was on his way to either a title shot or a bout against a top contender. Instead, he'll take on Joe Lauzon in a bout that has little to no ramifications.

This would be huge for Lauzon's career if he manages to pull off the upset, but Sotiropoulos' position in the division won't really change with a victory in this fight. In any case, a victory is better than a loss.

Born in Geelong, Victoria, Australia, Sotiropoulos trains in Vancouver, Washington at Fisticuffs Gym. He is a black belt in BJJ with seven career submission wins and a UFC record of 6-0.

In September 2007, Sotiropoulos appeared on the sixth season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he was defeated in the semi-finals by Tommy Spear due to an accidental eye-poke. Since the show, he has drastically rounded off his game with improved Boxing and Wrestling. He recently took a unanimous decision victory over "Batman" Pellegrino.

Fighting out of Bridgewater, Massachusetts, Lauzon's UFC tenure started on the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter. He was defeated in the semi-finals by Manny Gamburyan.

A purple belt in BJJ, Lauzon has finished 15 fights by submission. He made waves in his UFC debut by upsetting and spoiling the return of former Lightweight Champion Jens Pulver via first round KO. His UFC record stands at 6-2. At UFC 118, he submitted Gabe Ruediger with an armbar in the first round.

Keys to Victory :

The first round will be the most dangerous for Sotiropoulos. Lauzon tends to come out firing like a man possessed. Sotiropoulos can't let Lauzon's aggression deter his methodical mindset. He needs to string together accurate combinations and stave off takedowns.

When he settles in, Sotiropoulos should steadily get more aggressive with his offense and push Lauzon's cardio. None of Lauzon's victories have gone the distance, and his gas tank tends to run on 'E' in the later rounds. On the ground, Lauzon presents a viable threat with submissions. Sotiropoulos will have to sift through the transitions cautiously to avoid getting caught in anything.

Lauzon should have a slight speed advantage on the feet. He has to keep Sotiropoulos guessing with a well-rounded mix of striking and takedowns. On paper, Sotiropoulos' Boxing technique is flawless. He keeps everything tight, his punches are straight, and he utilizes angles and head movement. The odds aren't in Lauzon's favor in a battle of techniques.

He has to draw Sotiropoulos out of his shell by moving in and out of range and firing off one-twos and leg kicks. If Lauzon incorporates takedowns in this attack, he can use feints to further his striking offense. He'll have to be careful on the ground in Sotiropoulos' guard. Sotiropoulos is slick off his back in using the rubber guard to work for sweeps and submissions.

This is a veteran-like gameplan for an often reckless fighter. We'll need to see major improvements in Lauzon's game for him to take the upset.

Prediction :

It's hard not to like Sotiropoulos' chances in this one. He is rolling right now and seems to get better every time we see him compete. Both fighters are well-rounded, but Sotiropoulos edges Lauzon in just about every category. Lauzon is arguably a better wrestler, but Sotiropoulos' dynamic guard game quickly cancels that advantage out.

This should be an entertaining opener. Sotiropoulos will outwork Lauzon in all areas. In the third round, a fatigued Lauzon will give up his back and the rear naked choke.

Official Picks

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson By Round 2 KO

B.J. Penn By Unanimous Decision

Gerald Harris By Round 2 TKO Stoppage

Phil Davis By Unanimous Decision

George Sotiropoulos By Round 3 Submission (Rear Naked Choke)