BCS Bowl Projections: Oregon and Auburn Will Hang On for Title Game Matchup
After the slew of controversy and drama surrounding Cam Newton's recruitment to Auburn, many thought the Auburn Tigers would be distracted and could slip up against Georgia Saturday.
But actually, the Oregon Ducks almost had a huge problem, needing a missed Cal FG to escape Berkeley with a 15-13 win to keep their perfect season.
Both teams are still on a collision course for the National Championship game and, with no major shuffles in the BCS picture, the bowl projections have not changed much.
Here is a look at a projection of the 20 best bowl games at this point in the season.
20. Baylor Vs. Northwestern: Texas Bowl
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Like San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl, Baylor may get a favorable draw playing in-state for the Texas Bowl against Northwestern.
For Art Briles and the Bears, it is their first bowl game in 16 years, and much of the credit belongs to QB Robert Griffin III, whose return from a season-ending injury in 2009 has taken Baylor to a level they haven't been at in a very long time.
His dynamic dual-threat ability powers the Baylor offense, as he has thrown for just under 3,000 yards and rushed for under 500 so far with 27 total TDs.
On the other side, Northwestern will be without QB Dan Persa the rest of the way due to an Achilles injury suffered in the win over Iowa on Saturday.
Even with true freshman Evan Phillips likely to take most of the snaps, the Bears cannot overlook a Northwestern team that plays with such heart and hustle every week under head coach Pat Fitzgerald.
Just ask Auburn in the 2010 Outback Bowl. Though the Tigers had far superior talent on paper, they were pushed to overtime by the scrappy Wildcats.
19. Utah Vs. Fresno State: MAACO Bowl Las Vegas
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Considering that the Pac-10 might not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fit their obligations, the Las Vegas Bowl might look to the WAC and add Fresno State to create an interesting matchup.
This is a matchup that presents one team leaving the Mountain West and another about to take its place.
The Utes, victims of back-to-back blowouts, will move on to the Pac-12 in 2011 where they could have immediate growing pains, but they could have a very strong program down the road.
Jordan Wynn has been a rapid developer for Kyle Whittingham at QB, and could blossom even further in his junior season as the Utes move to an AQ conference.
The Bulldogs remained a consistent group under coach Pat Hill, and will join Boise State and Nevada in an exodus to the Mountain West.
Seeing these two teams face off would be a very intriguing matchup and possibly a telling marker of where a quality WAC team stacks up against an MWC squad.
18. Maryland Vs. Syracuse: Meineke Car Care Bowl
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After a shocking collapse at Syracuse, it's great to see new head coach Doug Marrone lead Syracuse to their first bowl game since 2004.
The projection looks like they will play Maryland in the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte.
Syracuse's M.O. has been a stingy defense, giving up only 18.7 points per game, good for No. 16 in the country.
On the other side, Maryland, which averages just over 30 points per game, is 7-1 when they get to 20 points.
With a potential matchup of a capable offense versus a good defense, this could shape up to be a very interesting confrontation.
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17. North Carolina State Vs. California: Hyundai Sun Bowl
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In El Paso, we could very well see a matchup of two teams with very different offensive styles.
The N.C. State Wolfpack ride on the shoulders of dual-threat QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for over 2,500 yards with 20 TDs, and five more on the ground.
Tom O'Brien's team lacks a true go-to receiver, but Wilson is very effective at spreading the ball around to a multitude of targets, including TE George Bryan.
On the other side, Cal, who very nearly stunned Oregon on Saturday, likes running the football with Shane Vereen, who is very close to a 1,000-yard season.
They will need one more win to become bowl-eligible, which they very well could do against Washington in their season finale.
16. Texas A&M Vs. Arizona: Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl
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If you like offensive shootouts, this game could be right up your alley.
For the Aggies, the combination of Jerrod Johnson and Ryan Tannehill at QB has produced the No. 4 passing attack in the country, averaging over 300 yards per game.
The big man the Wildcats will have to keep an eye on in the passing game is big WR Jeff Fuller, who has 11 TD receptions and is closing in on a 1,000-yard season.
On the other sideline, Arizona's Nick Foles may be one of the best passers in the country, as he has thrown for over 2,200 yards while completing a staggering 71 percent of his passes.
The Wildcats have struggled in the past two weeks, but they could very well make travel plans for San Diego on December 30.
15. Miami Vs. Mississippi State: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
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While Auburn staying undefeated has been the biggest surprise of the season, Mississippi State has been a pleasant surprise as well, going 7-3 in 2010.
Dan Mullen has done an excellent job in Starkville, including leading the No. 16 scoring defense through a big six-game winning streak that has them in a bowl game this year.
The potential draw for the Bulldogs in Atlanta could be the Miami Hurricanes, who are still playing well but may be a year away from returning to where they were 10 years ago.
The biggest matchup could be MSU's secondary trying to take on the U's talented receiver corps, led by Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin.
If the Bulldogs allow Miami's talented receivers to dictate the flow of the game in the secondary, they may struggle to keep up on the scoreboard.
14. Nevada Vs. Air Force: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
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This could be another one of those matchups where a Pac-10 team is not available and the bowl committee will borrow Air Force to face Nevada in San Francisco, the last bowl game before the National Championship game.
Don't expect this game to turn into an aerial attack, as both teams are in the top three in rushing yards per game.
Nevada's famed pistol offense will have its last game with star QB Colin Kaepernick at the controls. Kaepernick has thrown for over 2,000 yards, run for close to 1,000 yards and has 32 total TDs.
This production, along with the strong running of RB Vai Taua, has the Wolf Pack No. 4 in the country in scoring offense with 43.3 points per game.
On the other sideline, Air Force runs the lethal triple-option attack, which means they pass very little, as they are No. 117 in passing.
But QB Tim Jefferson is capable of throwing it as well as running it effectively.
This could very well be another one of those rushing marathons in the home of the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants.
13. North Carolina Vs. Georgia: Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
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North Carolina has had a very weird season. Illegal benefit scandals cost DE Robert Quinn and DT Marvin Austin their seasons and shot down expectations of a lockdown defense.
But they do still have S Deunta Williams and DB Kendric Burney back, along with several other defenders, and T.J. Yates is having a spectacular season throwing the football.
Yates has a nearly two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio and has thrown for over 2,500 yards, which has helped ease the blow of suspensions, which also cost top WR Greg Little his eligibility as well.
Meanwhile, Georgia has started to pick themselves up after losing WR A.J. Green for the first four games of the season.
But thanks to Aaron Murray's strong first season as a starter, the Bulldogs have not given up the ship and could still find themselves in a late December bowl.
12. Michigan Vs. Missouri: Insight Bowl
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This could be another of those games that will end in a shootout, especially considering the matchup at QB.
Michigan's Denard Robinson took the college football world by storm with a slew of virtuoso performances both running and throwing. But injuries have slowly brought him back down to earth.
If he can get to 100 percent before the bowl season, the Wolverines offense could be in high gear as they head to their first bowl game in the Rich Rodriguez era.
Their prize is facing off against cannon-armed Blaine Gabbert and Mizzou's spread attack of their own.
But the Tigers could have a huge advantage if star DE Aldon Smith and their talented defense can make Robinson one dimensional.
However, if we know anything about Rodriguez back at West Virginia, it's that his teams come out firing after the long bowl layoff.
If neither team gets to 40, the game could be a disappointment considering the offensive firepower both teams have.
11. Florida State Vs. West Virginia: Champs Sports Bowl
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In his first year as a head coach, FSU's Jimbo Fisher has done a pretty good job as he appears to have the Seminoles on the right track back to prominence.
But his first bowl test could ironically come against the team that played the 'Noles in Bobby Bowden's last game: West Virginia.
For the Mountaineers, Noel Devine has not been as effective as he has been in years past, with only 770 yards rushing and five TDs on the ground.
But Bill Stewart's defense has been stifling, giving up only 13.2 points per game, which is No. 3 in the country.
Florida State could still play for the ACC title if they beat Maryland next week, which would be a great thing for this program considering the final few years of the Bowden era.
10. Penn State Vs. Arkansas: Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
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In one of three Big Ten vs. SEC bowl games, a Penn State team that started to find an offensive groove with QB Matt McGloin will go against an Arkansas team that has been lighting up scoreboards all season long.
Ryan Mallett has been torching the SEC for most of the season, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 TDs in stating his case for a top-five pick in the NFL draft.
But they can also run the football with Knile Davis, who has 10 rushing TDs to go with 844 yards.
Penn State will try to play a physical brand of football and use their strong front four to put pressure on Mallett, who is not adept at scrambing.
On offense, expect Evan Royster and Silas Redd to try to press the Razorbacks defense on the ground game.
While we speculate about whether or not each season is Joe Paterno's last, he should have his team ready to play against whoever is thrown at them.
9. Oklahoma State Vs. Stanford: Valero Alamo Bowl
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Dallas might not only be home to a matchup of two top-15 teams, but also between two spectacular offensive units.
The Cowboys under former Houston offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen have been unstoppable on offense, ranking second in passing yards per game and No. 30 in rushing.
The trio of QB Brandon Weeden, RB Kendall Hunter and the electrifying WR Justin Blackmon can give defensive coordinators nightmares as each one is capable of having an amazing game.
But Mike Gundy's biggest task will be to stop superstar QB Andrew Luck, the future No. 1 draft pick, and the multitude of weapons that Jim Harbaugh has at his disposal.
This could be one of those games where whoever gets the first stop could very well win the game.
8. Virginia Tech Vs. Pitt: Discover Orange Bowl
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Ever since Virginia Tech was shocked at home against FCS opponent James Madison, the Hokies have been red-hot, winning eight straight games and going through the ACC undefeated.
The four-headed running attack of Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams, David Wilson and Darren Evans has been quite a strong force to try to stop.
Frank Beamer's squad has been very balanced on both sides of the ball, currently No. 19 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
Pitt has not been as impressive as many people expected this season, but they seem to be the favorite to win the Big East with top challenger West Virginia coming to Heinz Field.
Dion Lewis has failed to live up to Heisman expectations, but steady defense has allowed the Panthers to stay in control of their BCS destiny.
7. Iowa Vs. Alabama: Outback Bowl
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For both teams, ending up in the Outback Bowl would be a disappointment considering that they each had national championship expectations.
Alabama's two losses have taken them out of BCS contention, but they still have a very potent offense with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson toting the rock.
Their running, combined with a very stingy defense and improved passing of Greg McElroy, makes the Tide a very dangerous team regardless of who they play.
For the Hawkeyes, a stunning loss at Northwestern takes them out of contention for the Big Ten title even before they face Ohio State this Saturday.
The matchup to watch in this game will be Iowa's great defensive line led by Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard vs. Alabama's strong offensive line.
If Iowa can win the battle in the trenches with their strong secondary, they have a shot to get the win over Nick Saban's Crimson Tide.
6. Florida Vs. Oklahoma: AT&T Cotton Bowl
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Although neither of these teams has lived up to expectations, this is still a matchup featuring two athlete-laden teams.
Oklahoma has played well this season after a disappointing 2009 with Landry Jones back for his second season as a starter.
Jones has been electric this season, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 27 TDs, with help in the running game from DeMarco Murray, who is closing in on a 1,000-yard season.
For the Gators, the offense has been a huge disappointment, and that could put offensive coordinator Steve Addazio on the hot seat.
But the Florida defense is still very talented and has enough speed to slow down high-powered offenses.
A Gators win could generate huge momentum as they will look to bounce back in 2011.
5. Michigan State Vs. South Carolina: Capital One Bowl
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Orlando would be more than happy to host a matchup between two of the biggest surprises of the college football season.
South Carolina, powered by superstar freshman Marcus Lattimore, is headed for its first-ever SEC Championship Game against Auburn, and seems to have turned the corner as a program.
Steve Spurrier's crew is very capable of stunning Auburn and going to the BCS, but this game would still be a very welcome consolation prize.
Michigan State is on its way to an amazing 11-1 season, something nobody expected at the start of the season.
The combination of a very balanced offense with a physical defense has put the Spartans at a level they have not been at in a very long time.
4. Nebraska Vs. TCU: Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
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Unlike last season, the BCS committee might be looking to make the decision to bring an answer to the mid-major question once and for all.
Nebraska has a quality opportunity to win the Big 12 in their final season before they move to the Big Ten, and their reward for doing so would be a shot at the best-scoring defense in the country, TCU.
The Huskers have been all about the running game, with Taylor Martinez and Roy Helu, Jr. each close to 1,000 yards, and a top 20 scoring offense.
But this game is all about defense, TCU's defensive dominance versus Nebraska's dominance of the air led by shutdown DB Prince Amukamara.
Players like Amukamara and a ferocious Nebraska pass rush could make life tough for Andy Dalton and the Horned Frogs passing attack.
Expect a smashmouth, physical game should these teams meet up in Glendale.
3. Ohio State Vs. LSU: Allstate Sugar Bowl
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If Auburn goes to the NCG, then the Sugar Bowl would most likely take LSU to play close to home once again.
And with the first at-large pick after the Rose Bowl, Ohio State could very well be an attractive option because of the hype a rematch of the 2008 BCS National Championship Game could bring.
This would be the ultimate clash of great defense vs. great defense.
The difference, however, is that Ohio State has been much more effective offensively than the Tigers have, as they have struggled to find a consistent starting option at QB.
And that could be a problem for LSU considering how strong OSU is at stopping the run, meaning Stevan Ridley and others, including Michael Ford, will need to be great in this game.
But LSU could have an advantage in the passing game, with Patrick Peterson being able to take away either DeVier Posey or Dane Sanzenbacher, Terrelle Pryor's two favorite targets in the passing game.
If LSU can contain Pryor, then it could be a very low-scoring affair despite OSU's No. 6 scoring offense.
In other words, the first to 20 could win this game.
2. Wisconsin Vs. Boise State: Rose Bowl Presented by Citi
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Wisconsin appears to be on a collision course with Pasadena for the first time in over a decade, and could get a unique surprise waiting for them.
Thanks to a new rule allowing the Rose Bowl committee to select a mid-major team if a Big Ten or Pac-10 team makes the national title game, they might be the ones to grab Boise State to play in the Granddaddy of Them All.
This would be the ultimate test for Boise State, because they have not seen as physical and as big a squad as Wisconsin has, and their run defense will be tested in a major way.
The Badgers are very physically imposing this season, as Ohio State can attest to in the upset loss on October 16, and John Clay is a load to bring down in the running game.
But Boise State has been to the BCS rodeo before, unlike any of the current Badgers, and Bret Bielema's squad has not seen a QB as good as Kellen Moore.
If Moore can turn the game into a passing fancy, they have a shot to pull off the upset.
But one way or another, this bowl season should once and for all decide the BCS mid-major question.
1. Oregon Vs. Auburn: Tostitos BCS National Championship Game
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After their scare against Cal, Oregon does not have much left on their path separating them from a trip to Glendale to play for the National Championship.
The same cannot be said for Auburn, which still has to win at Alabama and against South Carolina in their final two games to play for the title.
Oregon appears to have a ticket all but punched with games at home against Arizona and at struggling Oregon State, both of which they could easily win.
Auburn, however, has much more on their plate, with their opponents remaining and uncertainty looming about Cam Newton's eligibility.
For a preview of this game, click here.
For more college football, visit the BCS Blitz. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @bielik_tim.
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