Miami Heat: Can LeBron James and Dwyane Wade Save Erik Spoelstra?
Miami Heat: Can LeBron James and Dwyane Wade save Erik Spoelstra?
It's probably too early to think that the Miami Heat are "in trouble," having lost last night to the Boston Celtics for the second time in less than a month, and dropping their overall record to 5-4.
But when you spend that kind of money and make that kind of splash in the sports world, shouldn't you be a doing better than a shade over .500?
With all that the Heat were expected to accomplish, how much longer can their coach, Erik Spoelstra, survive?
No. 5: Yes, Patience
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Yes, many people in the media (or at least fans) thought the Heat would have four losses by the All-Star Break in late February. As it stands they have four losses midway before the mid-November.
But this isn't exactly the same scenario as it was in 2005, when the Heat dumped Stan Van Gundy for Pat Riley in mid-December.
That team had Dwayne Wade and a few other people in place when they added Shaq prior to 2004-05. Then they played together for an entire season-plus. Adding one piece and failing is a lot worse than shaking up an entire roster and failing.
Wade, James, Bosh and the rest aren't off to a good start, but that probably should have been expected. They were going to need time to get used to playing together.
Eventually Wade and James will put together an identity for the team and know who to rely on and in what situations.
No. 5: No, The Schedule
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Miami has already lost twice to Boston, and not on last second buzzer beaters. That is a major worry for the front office, considering that they are most likely going to face the Celtics in a semi-final or conference final.
But that's down the road. It's the losses to Utah and New Orleans that should be worrisome.
The front office knew that the rebuilt Bulls, divisional rival Orlando and an improved Hawks team, as well as the Celtics, were going to contend against Miami.
Losing inter-conference games to two teams not considered "elite" has to be a head scratcher.
Even if they lose a few more games than expected to the Jazz and/or New Orleans and/or Oklahoma City and/or Portland, those could be the difference between a No.4 seed and a No.2 seed. That could be the difference between a Finals appearance, and an early exit from the playoffs.
No. 4: Yes, Spoelstra Is Not Van Gundy
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When Stan Van Gundy "resigned" in December 2005 (let's just agree he was pushed out), the team's performance had something to do with it. They were 11-10 at the time.
But in the years that followed, we've seen evidence that suggests that wasn't the only reason. He's reportedly not much of a "player's coach." He pushes players harder probably than most. Even last week, it was reported that he and Michael Pietrus don't quite get along
And, according to Shaq, he is "The Master of Panic."
We don't know much about Spoelstra, but it's safe to assume, that when Pat Riley tapped him as a replacement, he went in a different direction than the Van Gundy route.
If Wade, Bosh, James, Arroyo and the rest like Spoelstra, they'll wait longer to speak to the front office about needing to go in a new direction.
No. 4: No, Spoelstra's Resume
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Pat Riley and ownership dismissed Stan Van Gundy in December 2005. No matter what the team's early season record was, and no matter how much Shaq or anyone else apparently didn't care for the mustachioed man, it was a bold move.
In his first season, Van Gundy took the team (a team who had yet acquired the "Big Aristotle") to the Eastern Conference semis.
A year later, with Shaq, the team won 59 games and cruised through their first two series with consecutive sweeps. They took a 3-2 lead over the defending World Champion Detroit Pistons and lost in Game Seven.
In short, Van Gundy had an excellent resume in just two seasons as head coach. Spoelstra's is not nearly as impressive. His Heat have been bounced out of the playoffs in both his postseason appearances.
If they Riley and ownership were willing to can a proven winner like Van Gundy, Spoelstra's job has to be in jeopardy, no matter how many points LeBron and Wade score in losing efforts.
No. 3: Yes, It's a Long-Term Plan
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James, Wade and Bosh are far younger than Shaquille O'Neal was when they brought him to South Beach in 2004.
They knew the window was closing on how long Shaq would be a dominant player. They couldn't wait around long for Van Gundy to take them to a title. So when the 11-10 start came in 2005, Shaq's second season with the club, they acted.
With Wade, James and Bosh having just signed a few months ago, and each well under the age of 30, they have five or six more championship opportunities after this year, no matter if they win the title in June or finish a lottery team.
Wade and James have played well enough as of now to show that the new regime can work.
No. 3: No, Wade And James Can't Do It Alone
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LeBron and Wade are playing fairly well together. Last night, Wade struggled with his shooting, but he was averaging better than 27 points per game before the loss to Boston. And James' point total may be down but he is still having a great all-around year.
The reason Miami is 5-4 might be due to the fact that no one else, especially Chris Bosh, is pulling their weight. He has just one 20-point game this season (he averaged 24 last year) and just one double-digit rebound game (he averaged 10.8 a game last year).
Together, starter Joel Anthony and Carlos Arroyo are tossing in less than eight a game. And, for the number of minutes they're playing, Udonis Haslem, Eddie House and Zydrunas Ilgauskas should be more involved.
Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant were/are two of the greatest players of all time. But Jordan had John Paxson, Horace Grant, Steve Kerr, Ron Harper, Luc Longley, etc; Kobe has/had Derek Fisher, Robert Horry, Sasha Vujacic, Rick Fox, etc.
James and Wade need the supporting cast to play better.
No. 2: Yes, LeBron's Been Great
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LeBron might be more in the Magic Johnson mold than the Michael Jordan mold, in terms of getting everyone involved instead of being mainly a scorer. But he can certainly take over games; we saw him do it many times in Cleveland.
More importantly, he has lived up to his end of the bargain during his short Miami career. We knew his point totals would drop with Wade beside him. But he is averaging more than 8 assists per game this year, and still adding 22 a night.
Even he got off to a bit of a slow start, but in the last five games, he's averaging six boards, 11 assists and 23 points and the past two games, he's averaged a triple double.
LeBron's performance has to at least show that he was worth the money. For a while, that can keep Spoelstra afloat.
No. 2: No, Scrutiny
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No team in NBA history has ever been as closely monitored as the 2010-2011 Miami Heat.
They put the bulls-eye on their back by acquiring James and Bosh. It didn't matter if it was the right basketball move or not.
When you go through the type of theatrics that James did to join the team, and add another of the so-called greats of the free agent pool (and pair them with a perennial All-Star like Wade) you should be under the microscope.
The expectations of 73 wins might have been unfair, even absurd, but it doesn't matter: they are there. And now they are falling woefully short. (They aren't going to win 68 of their remaining 73 games, or come close to that).
James and Wade can continue to play great, and the Heat may continue to play .500 ball. Even .700 ball might not be enough to meet expectations.
ESPN, TNT, the local and national print media and all the others are constantly going to ask about Spoelstra, until they tear off a major streak. Or he'll be fired to look like the front office is doing something.
No. 1: Yes, History's Lesson Learned (Part 1)
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If the team is interested in a long term solution, than keeping Spoelstra and not pulling Pat Riley out of the front office is the right move.
The move to Riley worked great in 2005-06: they won the NBA title. But how long did it last?
They were swept in the next year's postseason opener, and then finished with the worst record in the entire NBA a year later. Within two years of replacing Van Gundy, they were starting from scratch again.
Riley is 65 years old (and he is probably the only person they would replace Spoelstra with). What happens in 2011 or 2012 when he wants to return to the front office? They might be headed for another abysmal season like they suffered in 2007-08.
No. 1: No, History's Lesson Learned (Part 2)
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It all depends on whether or not one championship is enough for ownership and LeBron James.
If they fire Spoelstra and bring in Riley, there is a good chance of a repeat of the 2005-06 season: Riley sparks a turnaround and they win the NBA title. Or maybe Riley returns for the 2011-12 season and that happens next year.
That might be worth it to the front office and to James. Shaq and Wade were having fine years in early 2005 when they Van Gundy "stepped down." Yet they only won with Riley.
That precedent might be enough to convince Riley and all the other decision makers for an encore.
Conclusion
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Pat Riley has to be exceedingly tempted to can Spoelstra and take over. It worked with the 2005-06 club.
But this is a different situation.
For one, making that move will look like panic. They Heat just went out and signed (or re-signed) two of the greatest players in the world, and added another All-Star. They can afford to project stubborn confidence. They should. Otherwise people will question the move in the first place.
Secondly, James and Wade are going to be in Miami for a long time; they are 25 and 28 years old respectively. Their youth alone helps keep Spoelstra's job safe. Wade may have only been 23 at the time of the Van Gundy departure, but the other main piece, Shaq, was33-year-old center, not a young guard.
But more than anything, Wade and James have played fairly well this year. The club had to expect the "role players" to need time. (Although for the money they're paying Bosh, he shouldn't need as much time). They will give Spoelstra a chance to develop the right rotations.
Prediction: Spoelstra keeps his job...for this year, at least.
