College Football Predictions: Georgia over Auburn and Other Week 11 Upsets
Week 10 in college football bore witness to potential underdogs and favorites falling apart or coming back from the dead in the fourth quarter.
Virginia Tech scored 21 fourth-quarter points to come back against Georgia Tech. Iowa scored nine in the final period to rally against Indiana. Virginia and Duke combined for 41 points in the fourth quarter, resulting in an improbable 55-48 Blue Devils victory.
Wisconsin scored 28 second-half points to beat Purdue. Kansas scored 35 fourth-quarter points to come back against Colorado. And LSU scored 14 in the fourth to upend Alabama
And then there were the scores that made you ask whether basketball season had tipped off early: Navy 76, ECU 35 and Michigan 67, Illinois 65. Both of the games were salutes to defensive, grind-it-out-on-the-ground football.
Some, including this football enthusiast, hoped that Boise State versus Hawaii would get interesting. Sadly, the most intriguing element of that contest was the announcers. Was it just me or did the booth in Boise contain a guy that sounded like a girl and a girl that sounded like a guy?
Who knows what will happen in Week 11.
The following slideshow will attempt to boldly, humbly and provocatively pinpoint six potential shockers and rank them in order of confidence.
6. Penn State over Ohio State
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@ Ohio State
Ohio State -17
Overall Series: Ohio State leads 13-11 and is 8-5 in Columbus vs. Penn State
The No. 9 Buckeyes are 8-1 and fresh off a bye week. The Nittany Lions are 6-3 and coming off a thrilling comeback victory over Northwestern that scored Joe Paterno his historic 400thwin.
The Bottom Line
Ohio State seems to be one of the forgotten one-loss teams in the country. The next three weeks provide the Buckeyes an opportunity to show the nation that they still belong in the national championship conversation.
Though next week’s clash versus No. 12 Iowa may best fit the bill for a much-needed signature win, next up is a visit from an up-and-down Penn State team.
This week Penn State will start sophomore QB Matt McGloin. He has gone 33-for-57 for 425 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games in relief of Robert Bolden.
Though Ohio State clearly has the statistical advantage in every category going into this game, who have the Buckeyes played?
In their eight victories, Ohio State has beaten teams that combine for a 31-43 overall record in 2010. In fact the Buckeyes have only bested three teams with winning records (Miami, Ohio and Illinois). The remaining five combine for a 13-33 mark.
Penn State will need to generate early points to have a chance to beat Ohio State. Putting Ohio State in a hole and forcing Terrelle Pyror to win through the air may be the key to victory.
A couple of turnovers and/or special teams scores certainly couldn’t hurt.
5. Georgia over Auburn
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@ Auburn
Auburn -9
Overall Series: Georgia leads 50-49 and is 14-11 at Auburn
No. 2 Auburn is only two games away from perfection. Only the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide stand between the Tigers and destiny. Georgia is 5-5 and, after winning three-straight games, dropped a heartbreaker in overtime to Florida last weekend.
The Bottom Line
In reality, Auburn’s November 26th clash with the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa looks to be the more dangerous of the Tigers two remaining contests. Georgia is a team that has struggled mightily in 2010, but is certainly improved from the team that dropped four-straight games early in the season.
What may be overlooked in this weekend’s Bulldogs versus Tigers match-up is Auburn’s prolific running attack, led by Cam Newton and Michael Dyer, against a stifling Georgia run defense.
The Tigers are fourth overall in rushing, averaging 307 yards on the ground per game. The Bulldogs rank 21st in running defense, allowing an inhospitable 106 yards per game.
Add to this the fact that Auburn’s defense will give up points (they rank No. 108 nationally in pass defense) and suddenly it is easy to make a case that Georgia can, and just might, knock off Auburn.
As for home-field advantage, Georgia versus Auburn is a bit of an odd-ball series, as the road team has the advantage historically.
Auburn is 22-15 at Georgia and the Bulldogs are 14-11 at Jordan-Harre.
4. South Carolina over Florida
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@ Florida
Florida -7
Overall Series: Florida leads 23-4 and is 13-0 vs. the Gamecocks in Gainesville.
The No. 22 Gators are 6-3 and fresh off consecutive victories over Georgia and Vanderbilt. No. 23 South Carolina is also 6-3 and travels down to the Sunshine State after an ugly 41-20 defeat by Arkansas.
The Bottom Line
Are the Gators really back? Indeed, has the best reptile in college football (with apologizes to the Horned Frogs) returned to the Swamp to dominate the SEC?
The Gators are certainly good enough to be vying for the inside track to the SEC championship game, which is exactly what will play out Saturday evening in their clash with South Carolina.
But can the Gamecocks knock off Florida in the Swamp for the first time in history?
Anyone who watched South Carolina beat then No. 1 Alabama must firmly state “Yes!” Those who watched the Gamecocks get whipped by the Razorbacks will yell (with feeling) “No!”
In its upset win over the Crimson Tide, the Gamecocks' defense held Alabama to only 36 yards of rushing. In its beat-down versus Arkansas, the Gamecocks' defense allowed Razorback running back Knile Davis three scores and gave up 140 yards rushing and 443 total yards of offense.
Florida has been more effective running the ball than throwing it. South Carolina has been more effective stopping the rush than the pass.
If the Gamecocks can score on Florida’s defense, even minimally, they will beat the Gators for the first time in history.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
3. North Carolina over Virginia Tech
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@ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech -5
Overall Series: Virginia Tech leads 16-8 and is 8-4 vs. UNC in Blacksburg
No. 20 Virginia Tech is 7-2 and 5-0 in the ACC while North Carolina is 6-3 and fresh off a 37-35 victory over then No. 24 Florida State.
The Bottom Line
Both North Carolina and Virginia Tech had great expectations entering the 2010 season. And though both programs experienced significant setbacks (the Tar Heels with NCAA violations wiping out their defense and the Hokies losing their first two games), both find themselves in Week 10 still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal title.
The clash between the two hopefuls pits a team that has been successful passing the ball (UNC) versus a team that has been very effective on the ground (VT).
Not surprisingly, Virginia Tech has been more effective defensively.
Can the Hokies 28th-ranked scoring defense stop the Carolina passing attack? Well, the Tar Heels hung up 473 total yards (439 through the air) against the 26th-ranked Florida State defense last weekend in Tallahassee.
Helping the Tar Heels cause will be the fact that Virginia Tech will be without defensive end Chris Drager (18 solo tackles and 10 assists) and tailback David Wilson, (third leading rusher with 462 yards) who averages 28.6 yards per kickoff return, including two touchdowns (most recently to seal a victory versus Georgia Tech last weekend).
If UNC can continue its air-assault road show, it may wind up tied for the lead in the ACC Coastal division.
2. Purdue over Michigan
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@ Purdue
Michigan -13
Overall Series: Michigan leads 40-14 and is 14-9 vs. Purdue in West Lafayette.
Michigan is 6-3 coming off its thrilling 67-65 triple-overtime victory over Illinois. Purdue is 4-5 and has dropped its last three games, to Ohio State, Illinois and Wisconsin.
The Bottom Line
Michigan has a tremendous offense but ranks 104th in overall defense. Purdue has the No. 39-ranked rushing offense but defensively has struggled, especially over the past three weeks.
Purdue knocking off Michigan really makes no sense. Michigan will score points and allow points to be scored. But the Boilermakers seem neither poised to stop Michigan or able to score enough points to beat them.
But stranger things than Purdue over Michigan have happened this season.
Michigan State held Michigan to only 17 points in its Oct. 9 victory over the Wolverines. In achieving this remarkable feat the Spartans took advantage of three Denard Robinson picks and held the speedy QB to under 100 rushing yards.
Purdue will have to accomplish a similar defensive deed to beat Michigan. The Boilermakers will have to shut down Robinson both through the air and on the ground to have a chance.
Given that Purdue is not offensively powerful, they cannot expect (as Illinois did, with its defensive juggernaut in the Big House) to match the Wolverines score by score. They will undoubtedly move the ball against Michigan, but it will come down to the defense in this game.
1. Notre Dame over Utah
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@ Notre Dame
Utah -6
Overall Series: Notre Dame and Utah have never met.
Notre Dame is 4-5 coming off a bye week filled with off-field drama. No. 14 Utah is 8-1 and fresh off a 47-7 beat down by No. 3 TCU at home in Salt Lake City.
The Bottom Line
Notre Dame football is seemingly spiraling downward with no help in sight. The Irish have lost their quarterback for the season and they will be starting unseasoned freshman players at key positions across the field.
Utah, though they were pounded by TCU, has a powerful offense and a defense that ranks No. 14 overall in scoring.
If the Irish hope to beat the Utes, they will have to find a way to shut down Utah’s spread attack. This is exactly what TCU did last week when it held Utah to 199 total yards (the season low) of total offense.
Additionally, in its near miss at Air Force (28-23), the Falcons held the Utes to 327 yards total offense which was the second-lowest mark of the season.
The Irish’s five losses have been against programs whose combined average offensive ranking is No. 23.
Utah was exposed by TCU last Saturday. The bottom line is that, if the Irish can manage some offensive scores, the defense may be better than expected against a Utah team that hasn’t faced near the caliber of teams that Notre Dame has.
Also of note: Utah ranks 88th in turnover margin. This may haunt the Utes in South Bend.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
