Week 10 NFL Picks: 10 Favorites Who Will Sweat Right Up To Final Minute

The Week 10 NFL picks are loaded with trap games galore for good teams. With teams facing plucky opponents on the road, or good opponents at home, there are going to be plenty of nail-biters, hand-wringers, and sweat-inducing games come Thursday. 

Using our Heat Index, we'll break down the 10 games in which the projected favorite will be pushed to the brink of defeat (and in some cases, over the edge). The higher the Heat Index, the more likely it is that the favorite in that game will have to play to the end. 

10. Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

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GLENDALE, AZ - OCTOBER 10: Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald #11 of the Arizona Cardinals runs with the football after a reception against the New Orleans Saints during the NFL game at the University of Phoenix Stadium on October 10, 2010 in Glendale, Arizo

Why Arizona Will Win: The Cardinals are the better team on paper, they have better weapons offensively and their defense should be better than Seattle's. They're playing at home, and Seattle is terrible away from Qwest Field.

Why Seattle Will Win: Arizona's been terrible on the road and at home, and Seattle's defense could pick off Derek Anderson all game long. The Cards' offense isn't what it used to be, and the Seahawks have been known to snag upsets before.

Heat Index: 5/10. This one will be close, but not in an enjoyable way, given the two offenses in this one. 

Prediction: Arizona 21, Seattle 14. 

9. Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

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TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 07: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass against the Chicago Bears at Rogers Centre on November 7, 2010 in Toronto, Canada. Chicago won 22-19. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

Why Buffalo Will Win: The Bills have to win sometime, right? And the Lions are prime victims: shoddy defense, banged up quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be excited about this one. 

Why Detroit Will Win: The Lions still have Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best, and the defense is slowly getting not as terrible. Plus Buffalo's defense isn't exactly closing teams down, either. 

Heat Index: 6.5/10. This one's going to be a shootout, which always makes the favorite nervous. 

Prediction: Buffalo 35, Detroit 31. The Bills hang on for win number one, despite a furious rally from Detroit that makes them sweat a bit first. 

8. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

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ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 31: Quarterback David Garrard #9 of the Jacksonville Jaguars passes the ball against the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on October 31, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Why Jacksonville Will Win: Jags' running back Maurice Jones-Drew will run over, around and through the Texans, while quarterback David Garrard will have fun picking apart Houston's shoddy secondary. The defense isn't all that good, but it won't have to be.

Why Houston Will Win: If it turns into a gunfight (and given the defenses in this one, it probably will), the Texans' offense is far superior to the Jags' in terms of potential. Running back Arian Foster's one of the league's best, and the passing game, led by quarterback Matt Schaub and wideout Andre Johnson, will eviscerate the Jags' crappy secondary.

Heat Index: 6/10. This one's going to be a shootout, and it'll be close because neither team can stop the other. 

Prediction: Houston 35, Jacksonville 28. The Texans are the better team, despite what the line would have you believe. 

7. Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

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SAN DIEGO - OCTOBER 31: Chris Johnson #28 of the Tennessee Titans is pursued by Seyi Ajirotutu #89 of the San Diego Chargers in the game at Qualcomm Stadium on October 31, 2010 in San Diego, California. The Chargers defeated the Titans 33-25. (Photo by

Why Tennessee Will Win: The Titans have a fantastic run game and strong defense, and the passing attack just got a boost from the acquisition of wideout Randy Moss. Miami's struggled against good teams this season, and the Titans have more than enough weapons to beat them. 

Why Miami Will Win: The Dolphins are greater than the sum of their parts, and have been giving tough teams close games all season long. If the offense can stop turning the ball over, they've got a shot in this one. 

Heat Index: 7/10. Miami loves to play teams close, and Tennessee's style of ball control means that this one's going to stay close for most of the game.

Prediction: Tennessee 21, Miami 17. The Titans offense is just too much for Miami's defense to handle. 

6. San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams

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LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 31: Frank Gore #21 of San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball during the NFL International Series match between Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers at Wembley Stadium on October 31, 2010 in London, England. This is the fourth

Why San Francisco Will Win: The Niners are a surprise 6-point favorite in this one, but perhaps Vegas knows something we don't. The offense is starting to click, the defense is solid, and the Niners are better than their record would indicate. They get St. Louis in San Francisco, and the Rams have struggled away from the Edward James Dome.

Why St. Louis Will Win: The Rams are leading the NFC West right now, and they're a good, balanced team. Solid offensively and defensively, they can hang with anyone, and can beat the 49ers with relative ease. 

Heat Index: 7/10. Way closer than the oddsmakers are predicting, this one is going to be close enough to make Niners fans chew their nails off. 

Prediction: St. Louis 24, San Francisco 20. The Niners will have a shot to win it at the end, but it won't happen. 

5. Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

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MINNEAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 07: Running back Adrian Peterson #28 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball against cornerback Greg Toler #28 of the Arizona Cardinals in the fourth quarter at Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on November 7, 2010 in Minneapolis, Min

Why Minnesota Will Win: The Vikings have one of the NFL's best running backs, and the defense will terrorize Bears' quarterback Jay Cutler all game long. The passing game showed serious life last week, and if they're back up to speed, it wont matter that the game's in Chicago; the Vikes will live up to their favorite billing.

Why Chicago Will Win: Chicago's defense is excellent this season, and the Bears offense can be explosive. The game's in Chicago, and the Vikings have struggled away from the Metrodome this season.

Heat Index: 7/10. This one is between two teams fighting for their playoff lives; it'll be close throughout. 

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Chicago 24. The Vikes' pass rush lights up Jay Cutler in this one, which saves the Vikings in the end. 

4. Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens

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BALTIMORE, MD - OCTOBER 24: Joe Flacco #5 of the Baltimore Ravens passes against the Buffalo Bills at M&T Bank Stadium on October 24, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Bills lead the Ravens at the half 24-20. (Photo by Larry French/Getty Images)

Why Atlanta Will Win: The Falcons are excellent at home, the offense is clicking, and Baltimore's secondary has struggled all season long. 

Why Baltimore Will Win: The defense is better than Atlanta's, the offense has a higher upside, and Baltimore has experience against top teams in 2010. Ray Rice will run roughshod over Atlanta's run defense. 

Heat Index: 8/10. This one's going to be a close one, and the favored Falcons will find themselves down at the final whistle.

Prediction: Baltimore 31, Atlanta 28. The Ravens get a boost from the kicking game to take this one. 

3. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins

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PHILADELPHIA - NOVEMBER 07: Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball against the Indianapolis Colts on November 7, 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defeated the Colts 26-24. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/

Why Philadelphia Will Win: The Eagles' offense is one of the most dynamic in all of football, and with quarterback Michael Vick at the helm, they add a new wrinkle not seen in years. The defense is ball-hawking and the Redskins don't have the wideouts to make them pay. Washington's pass defense is atrocious, and the Eagles love to take advantage of things like that.

Why Washington Will Win: The Redskins love to win ugly, and they get Philly in D.C. Donovan McNabb's beaten his old team once already, and could definitely snag another one here.

Heat Index: 8.5/10. This will be a closely fought contest, and one that will keep Andy Reid sweating through his fleece all night long.

Prediction: Washington 24, Philadelphia 21. 

2. New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

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DETROIT - NOVEMBER 07: Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets throws a pass during the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on November 7, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. The Jets defeated the Lions 23-20 in overtime. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Why New York Will Win: On paper, this one shouldn't be close. The Jets have a better offense, better defense, and some momentum after last week's comeback win over the Lions. Mark Sanchez is slowly turning into a serviceable quarterback, and the defense is capable of keeping the Browns off the scoreboard entirely. 

Why Cleveland Will Win: The Browns just finished decimating the Patriots, and the Jets' offense is fully capable of getting shut down. Cleveland's got insider info, as defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is Jets' head coach Rex's brother. Plus, crazy things happen on the banks of Lake Erie. 

Heat Index: 9/10. This one's going to get Rexy all nervous, and with good reason. The Browns are suddenly a dangerous team.

Prediction: Cleveland 28, New York 27. The Jets slip against the suddenly surging Browns. 

1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

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CINCINNATI - NOVEMBER 08: Rashard Mendenhall #34 of the Pittsburgh Steelers carries the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on November 8, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Why Pittsburgh Will Win: The Steelers have a strong, balanced offense, and a defense capable of shutting down the Pats' offense. Wideouts Hines Ward and Mike Wallace will annihilate New England's secondary, and Rashard Mendenhall will blow up the Pats' front seven. 

Why New England Will Win: The Pats offense is capable of much better than they showed last week against Cleveland, and the defense can be dominant, when it wants to be. Quarterback Tom Brady gives the Pats a puncher's chance. 

Heat Index: 10/10. This one will come down to the last play of the game, and the Steelers won't have any fingernails left. 

Prediction: New England 21, Pittsburgh 20. A fantastic game. The Patriots score the major upset.