5 Reasons Why Oregon Won't Win It All This Year
In the first nine games of the season, Oregon has finally won over America. When the Ducks were defeating USC in the fourth quarter, Brent Musburger asked Kirk Herbstreit why the computers couldn't see it.
Well, since the BCS released its first standings in Week 8, the Ducks have jumped from eighth to third in the computer polls, with the human polls putting them at number since that time. Skeptics like myself wondered how they would treat the game against USC, and even with a few hiccups, Oregon ended up blowing them out like every other team they faced.
Now, there's no question that Oregon deserves to be in the BCS title game. Like Auburn, if they win out, they are in regardless of what anybody else does. Do I think this will happen? I'm fairly confident that it will.
Not as confident as knowing for sure the two teams last year were going to be Florida, Alabama and/or Texas, but it really should happen. The next three games are at California who have been a "Jekyll and Hyde" like team all year, vs Arizona who got rocked against Stanford last week, and at Oregon State who really hasn't been dominant in any of their wins except aforementioned California.
That all being said, Oregon could lose, and no one should be surprised if it happens. They may not even make the title game. Here are five things to look out for as the Ducks finish the last quarter of their season.
1. It's Hard To Win On The Road
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Oregon still has two games left on the schedule that are on the road. College football creates the toughest environment in any sport to win on the road. You have humongous tailgates that last all day, fans come out from all over the state (and some even out of state), and loud crowds inside with tons of people.
It doesn't matter what team it is, but every team has its games they struggle in each year even if they do go undefeated, and most of those happen in conference road games.
Same thing goes for the Ducks. They've had times of struggling in their three conference road games, two of them against Arizona State and Washington State, who are towards the bottom of the conference. Both of these teams that can't move the ball against a weaker defensive conference in general were able to put points on the Ducks.
Their best performance was against USC, which is definitely a big win, but they were able to get good field position on a couple turnovers and USC can't stop the run. It took a rain delay and some tape watching to come back onto the field and get it together against Tennessee. Oregon even looked down and out at halftime against Stanford at home, but were able to pull away in the second half.
2. California Hasn't Lost a Game at Home
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I could really blow this out of proportion.
California has been a weird team all year, but at least they have been consistent. They have have won every game at home, and the point differential in those four games has been 189-34. So yes, while they have looked bad, it's just been on the road. The last remaining games for the Golden Bears are all at home.
Okay, so yes, the following teams have had to visit California: UC Davis, Colorado, UCLA, and Arizona State. That's not an impressive schedule. But sometimes players just play better at home, and with momentum on their side, anything can happen. Just ask USC when they lost to Stanford. Or Oregon State. Or Washington.
Even ask Oklahoma who lost to Kansas State in a Big 12 Championship Game that they should have easily won. This stuff happens. This isn't as dominant as Texas' run to the 2005-06 championship. The Pac-10 is a much better conference, and California will be able to put points on the board.
3. The Civil War Is In Corvallis
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Since 1997, the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State has been decided with the home team being the victors 11 out of 13 times. There's no question that the Beavers are not last year's team, but there's always something interesting about the big state rivalry game.
There is no pro football team in Oregon. Everybody in the state cares about this game, and it will be a huge scene. Oregon State should be able to get a kick out of the home crowd, and depending on how the schedule plays out they might be fighting to become bowl eligible.
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4. Arizona Is Still One Tough Cat
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The huge loss to Stanford puts a negative mark on this remarkable season, but how many teams have lost to Stanford in that way? They even had Oregon on the ropes after one half. This three-game gauntlet that Arizona will be going through has USC next and Oregon to finish it, and the Wildcats need to forget about the Cardinal loss as soon as possible.
Unfortunately for Arizona, they've been playing down to opponents most of the season. They also have issues running the ball. That issue won't matter that much, because for Arizona to win they have to rely on their passing attack. Even if Arizona could run the ball and control the clock, it wouldn't help with Oregon's offense able to score in 30 seconds. Oregon may match up well, but still expect a shootout on senior night in Eugene.
5. The 5-Week Layoff
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Alright, let's say Oregon gets by its last three games and ends up in the BCS title game. Take it from a Big 12 fan, when you see great offenses perform week after week, it's tough to see them struggle in their bowl games.
I like what Chip Kelly has done, and I'm a huge believer in this "Blur" offense he's done. It's so fun to watch, and it even makes a 44-7 game still watchable because it's great to see it in motion. However, this offense could really sputter out of the gate from now until the big game. It's 37 days from the final game in Corvallis to Glendale, Arizona, and it doesn't matter how many practices you have, it's a whole different ball game when you face a team that's been preparing for you.
Just take a look at potential match-ups. Auburn may be similar, but Cam Newton could take over that game. Boise State and TCU both have pretty good defenses. LSU could even slow them down if they had the potential to make it. It's easy to fall in love with the Ducks offense, but never forget the long layoff. It happens sometimes, just ask Oklahoma.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
